The Inquisitr reports that traffic to Google owned sites have surpassed Yahoo for the first time. The data from ComScore shows that Google sites had a total of 141 million visitors compared to 140.6 million for Yahoo, with much of Google’s gain coming from YouTube.

Google have taken the beachhead

As Inquisitr points out when Google takes the lead in the market it generally consolidates it. Inquisitr is going to report the numbers next month. I’m opening the bidding that Google have a 60% chance of being ahead in May but I think our users will bid that up more. With the momentum that YouTube has it is hard to see how they could fall behind next month. Will Google still be ahead of Yahoo in May?

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By Nigel (Chief News Junkie)

After Microsoft walking away from the Yahoo deal their are long term questions on everyone’s mind like: How long with Steve Ballmer last as Microsoft CEO? Can Yahoo remain independent? and Will Yahoo buy AOL from Time Warner?

Immediate question

However the immediate question on everyone’s mind is: What price with Yahoo’s stock price finish trading on Monday? Top technology blogger and VC, Fred Destin (always a great read), has created a poll on it. It is currently projecting $22 per share. Will the market and poll correlate?

Market here: What Price Will Yahoo Close at On Monday May 5th?

Poll here:

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By Nigel (Chief News Junkie)

While losing the Yahoo deal may actually be good for Microsoft (and will most probably give a boost to its stock price) it certainly doesn’t look good for the architect, Steve Ballmer. TechCrunch asks the question “Does Ballmer Need To Go?” stating that after the disaster that was Vista, Ballmer needed to redeem himself in the eyes of board. Now that Yahoo has fallen through his fingers he doesn’t look like he has much of a strategy.

‘Leave to pursue other opportunities’ 

To be honest, I think it is very unlikely that Ballmer will get the boot (sorry, ‘leave to pursue other opportunities’) because of this deal. Yahoo didn’t really put up much of a defense beyond a belief that they are worth more. Nothing that they have done in the last 3 months has given me the impression they are really going to turn the business around never mind seriously compete with Google. So if Yahoo are likely to continue to flounder then Microsoft may as well bide their time and pick them up later at a lower price. Ballmer didn’t make the one mistake that that CEOs always make which is to over-pay.

Prediction time

My prediction is Ballmer is safe until the end of the year at least. The market is currently forecasting an 80% chance that he will be there. Don’t agree, get on here: Will Steve Ballmer still be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2008?

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By Nigel (Chief News Junkie)

Silicon Alley Insider reports that Microsoft is willing to raise its offer for Yahoo to $32-33 per share. Yahoo’s board are reported to want a number in the high 30’s which is all very well given that Yahoo’s stock price will probably drop to the low 20’s if Microsoft walks.

Would you sleep with me for $10m? 

It is clear that Yahoo’s position is shifting from “We don’t want to be bought” to “OK, but that isn’t enough”. It is a bit like the old joke where a guy propositions a girl with the line “Would you sleep with me for $10m?”. The girl says well for one night she probably would. The guy then makes the same proposal but for $100. The girl says “What do you think I am, a prostitute!?” to which the guy replies “We’ve already established your status, I’m just trying to negotiate the price!”.

Prediction market forecasting a deal 

Anyway, Yahoo is currently trading at $27.4 per share (pre-opening) so some investors certainly think that Microsoft could walk away. However more interestingly the forecast chance of Yahoo staying independent is steadily dropping on the Hubdub prediction market. Currently Hubdub predictors are forecasting the percentage chance of Yahoo being independent at the end of 2008 as around 15%. So will it be bye bye Yahoo, hello Microhoo?

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Yahoo! have just launched a really cool dashboard for the 2008 Presidential Election. It presents data from polls, Yahoo! buzz index and Intrade (an Ireland based prediction market). If you are a rabid passionate Ron Paul supporter I suggest you don’t look at it, they’ve stuck him on page 2!

Coverage on TechCrunch.

Nigel

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