The early leader, Leo Laporte, is still way out in lead by just under 1,000 followers. So confident was he in his lead that he didn’t even mention Twitter in his weekly tech podcast. That complacency might cost him dear (well at least a Hubdub T-shirt!) as Kevin Rose is gunning for the top spot and he is willing to play dirty to get there. Last week he sent out a tweet saying he was going to give his old iPhone to one of his followers chosen by random.

Only a few more followers and Rose will have bested Obama and it will be man-o-man between Laporte and Rose. Also looking comfortable in the saddle is Jason Calacanis who has rocketed up to 4th position. Could his new Tesla sportscar give him the firepower he needs to catch them at the finish line? The cameraman is opening his bag for what looks like will be a thrilling finish!

Prediction markets

what is this?

TWiT Twitter Derby: Who’ll be most followed by midnight May 25th?

% chance over time

    Kevin Rose

    Leo Laporte

    Jason Calacanis

    Robert Scoble

    John C Dvorak

    Wil Harris

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Hubdub - The News Prediction Game

Looking at the prediction markets now shows that punters have recognized Rose’s push up the field with them currently putting him at favorite with a 48% chance to win. Punters aren’t convinced that a late Calacanis surge is going to happen but a mystery punter has gone out on a limb and placed a stack on John C Dvorak. Dvorak looks like he has a mountain to climb but does someone out there know something we don’t?

Me? I’m putting my money down on Rose to pull ahead on the final furlong.

TWiT Twitter Derby: Who’ll be most followed by midnight May 25th?

I predicted Kevin Rose   on last Friday

what is this? The News Prediction Game

Popularity: 4% [?]

By Nigel (Technology Editor)

Techcrunch is reporting that Facebook fatigue is setting in with the number of visitors in the US down; dipping by 800,000 in January. There may be some seasonal effect as MySpace also dipped but not by as much as Facebook despite being larger. The Guardian is reporting an even bigger drop in the UK, with Facebook visitor numbers down 5% on December.

One swallow doesn’t make a summer but one data point is usually more than enough for Robert Scoble to draw a line. In his recent post, Is Facebook Doomed?, he links Facebook’s downturn to it’s limitation of 5,000 friends which seems to affect the sum total of one person, Robert Scoble!

I guess by that twisted form of internet mathematics, Scoble equals 800,000 visitors. I can see a new unit of measurement, a Scoble! With 33.9 million US visitors Facebook is at 42.4 Scobles, which is surely a much easier number to remember.

But what does this mean for Zuckerberg? BoomTown is reporting that senior management changes are happening in Facebook with them looking to hire a seasoned technology veteran (an unZuckerberg) to act as a steady hand to Zuckerberg who would retain the CEO position. But the question has to be asked: Will the right candidate want to report to a 23 year old (even one as visionary and successful as Mark)?

Will Zuckerberg still be CEO by the end of 2008? None of the pundits are making predictions on it but Hubdub users are currently forecasting there is only a 63% chance that he will. And that’s down from 90% just over a month ago.

Will Mark Zuckerberg still be CEO of Facebook by the end of 2008?

What do you think? Click here to make your own prediction.

Popularity: 4% [?]