Prediction markets typically focus on the usual who’ll win the race, and by how much. On Hubdub there are some interesting topics that are often hidden under the financial crisis and Obama’s transition. One of them is the crisis in Somalia. Whilst the markets on more obscure topics tend to be harder to get accurate reads on than purely US focused topics, Hubdub does have more users from Africa than from, say, Mexico, and the situation in Somalia is increasingly of international concern.

The market getting the most attention regards the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi oil supertanker off Somalia’s coast. With reports surfacing that Islamists plan to reclaim the ship in the name of Islam, over the last day the odds on the market have shifted. With almost H$30k at stake, it’s currently giving a 54% chance that the ransom will be paid and the crew released. Let’s hope the market is right, and force isn’t necessary.

What will be the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi supertanker Sirius Star?

Another fascinating market is asking who will sink the next ‘pirate ship’. The Indian Navy already sank a Somali pirate ship this month, but Hubdub’s currently predicting Russia is 23% likely to be the next “sinker”.

An Indian navy warship sank a Somalian pirate “ship.” Which country is going to sink another ?

To check out all of Hubdub’s current markets on Somalia go to our Somalia tag section.

Some other interesting Somalia forecasts:

Somalia likely to be most corrupt nation in 2009

Islamic insurgents 56% likely to take over control of Somalia

Popularity: 7% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

With all the ‘HubBub’ about Obama’s cabinet last week, most of the major picks have been named, but rumors run rampant regarding whether Obama will actually create new cabinet positions. Hubdub is forecasting with a 30% chance that 4 new positions will be created.

How many new cabinet positions will be created by Obama?

The new president is going to have to stay organized with the fate of the entire world on his shoulders. Too bad by 70% Hubdub forecasts Barack Obama won’t be able to keep his lovable blackberry organizer when he takes office. Guess he’ll use messenger pigeons or something so the terrorists don’t find out anything important.

WIll President Obama have to give up using his Blackberry once he takes office?

Financial Crisis

Looking at the Hubdub market on what the lowest close for the DJIA will be in 2008, there’s only one thing you can ascertain, we’re still headed for more disastrous days on the markets. Hubdub forecasts by 65% that the DJIA will close below 7,000 this year.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2008?

Thanksgiving Day Football

There’s nothing better than sitting down watching football on Thanksgiving. This 27th, one of the games to watch is the Tennessee Titans vs. the Detroit Lions. The Lions are almost assured defeat, but how bad will it be? Hubdub forecasts there’s a 30% chance it’s the Titans over the Lions by 15 to 28 points.

Will the Titans dine on Lions Thanksgiving Day 2008?

World News

Somalia is not the place for a Christmas vacation! It’s also not a good place to go boating, although if you want to be a modern pirate nowadays it’s the place to be… Joking aside in the continuing supertanker hijacking mess, Hubdub forecasts the ransom is paid, the ship & crew are released and the pirates get away.

What will be the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi supertanker Sirius Star?

Popularity: 13% [?]