Although Heath Ledger has been receiving significant Oscar Buzz for well over a year, best picture speculation for the Dark Knight has been slightly more muted.  Major blockbusters rarely star at the Oscars, with notable exception #1 film Titanic, which won a record 11 Oscars including Best Picture — Dark Knight stands at #2 all-time in box office receipts with a chance for #1 after its re-release in January. 
Expert pundits have consistently placed Dark Knight ‘on the bubble’ for nomination, giving it a roughly 50/50 shot of being nominated, up from a lower (approximate 35% chance) earlier this year. What changed? Well a couple of things.. 1) Warner Brothers launched their “For Your Consideration” campaign which seemed to energize the DK Best Picture buzz and 2) Some of the other top contenders for the spot were underpreforming at the box office and with critics.
InTrade predictors have similarly been gradually edging up DK’s chances, from 30% to near 50% currently — closely in line with the expert panel predictions. But while the experts waited for these developments, predictors at Hubdub pushed initial predictions for a DK nomination to 70% immediately.  Why are Hubdub’s predictions so much higher? Two possible explanations: 1) They are overly-exuberant about a movie the majority of them loved 2) They are more correctly reading the buzz levels of this movie among Academy voters.  

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

January 22 will tell us whether InTrade’s cautious progression or Hubdub’s ebullient predictions were more accurate.

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