Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

World News

The Mumbai terror attacks exacted a heavy toll on Indians and foreigners alike, but who was behind it? Initial intelligence is pointing to Pakistani ISI involvement and the terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taib. Could the terror attacks though be the work of elements from Al Qaeda? Hubdub predicts the chances of Al Qaeda involvement are above 40%.

Will the Nov 26 Mumbai terrorist attacks be connected to al Qaeda by the end of 2008?

Thailand’s been in a state of political upheaval for many months and arguably years. This political unrest though only now seems to be gaining worldwide attention. Protesters have seized Thailand’s main airports effectively shutting down Thailand’s main international artery. In the last day Hubdub forecasts have spiked. We now forecast by 65% that Thailand’s main international airport won’t be reopened by Sunday 7 December.

When will Thailand’s international airport be reopened?

Entertainment

Axl Rose from Guns N’ Roses is upset. So he’s doing what all rich rock stars do when they’re upset, making ridiculous demands. Due to a snafu in advertising he’s demanding Dr. Pepper take out a full-page apology in The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today and The Wall Street Journal. Likeliness that it will happen? 15%.

Will Dr Pepper apologize to Axl?

Sports

The South Eastern Conference championship kicks off this week, and it’s garnering allot of attention on Hubdub. There’s already H$22,492 on it! This year it’s the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. the Florida Gators, and Hubdub forecasts a win by the Gators, giving them a tight but healthy 54% chance.

SEC Championship Game - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators - Who will win?

General News

Often times you hear of stampedes happening in India or other less developed areas of the world. But if you thought for any second that human nature changes when living in a developed nation, you’d be wrong. Westerner’s are just as screwed up as everyone else. Evidenced by the shocking death of Jdimytai Damour a Wal-mart employee who was trampled to death by Long Island shoppers last week. Hubdub gives Jdimytai’s family a 80% chance of filing suit against Wal-mart.

Will the family of Jdimytai Damour file a lawsuit against Wall-Mart ?

Popularity: 17% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

With all the ‘HubBub’ about Obama’s cabinet last week, most of the major picks have been named, but rumors run rampant regarding whether Obama will actually create new cabinet positions. Hubdub is forecasting with a 30% chance that 4 new positions will be created.

How many new cabinet positions will be created by Obama?

The new president is going to have to stay organized with the fate of the entire world on his shoulders. Too bad by 70% Hubdub forecasts Barack Obama won’t be able to keep his lovable blackberry organizer when he takes office. Guess he’ll use messenger pigeons or something so the terrorists don’t find out anything important.

WIll President Obama have to give up using his Blackberry once he takes office?

Financial Crisis

Looking at the Hubdub market on what the lowest close for the DJIA will be in 2008, there’s only one thing you can ascertain, we’re still headed for more disastrous days on the markets. Hubdub forecasts by 65% that the DJIA will close below 7,000 this year.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2008?

Thanksgiving Day Football

There’s nothing better than sitting down watching football on Thanksgiving. This 27th, one of the games to watch is the Tennessee Titans vs. the Detroit Lions. The Lions are almost assured defeat, but how bad will it be? Hubdub forecasts there’s a 30% chance it’s the Titans over the Lions by 15 to 28 points.

Will the Titans dine on Lions Thanksgiving Day 2008?

World News

Somalia is not the place for a Christmas vacation! It’s also not a good place to go boating, although if you want to be a modern pirate nowadays it’s the place to be… Joking aside in the continuing supertanker hijacking mess, Hubdub forecasts the ransom is paid, the ship & crew are released and the pirates get away.

What will be the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi supertanker Sirius Star?

Popularity: 13% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

It may come as a surprise to many but arch rival of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton is the front runner for Secretary of State. After all that confrontation on the campaign trail, by over 55% Hubdubbers forecast Hillary will be named the new Secretary of State.

Will Hillary Clinton be Secretary of State?

Here’s some good news! Apparently there’s a stray nuclear bomb somewhere in the world. No one is quite sure where it is, although a Hubdubber said he sold it on Ebay awhile back… If you think you have it, check the serial number it’s 78252.

Has Anyone Seen the Stray H-Bomb?

Business

With the financial markets in crisis and the economic slowdown finally staring to effect everyone, the question children are asking is will I still get Christmas presents? Unfortunately for the kiddies Hubdub forecasts holiday retail sales will fall by more than 1% this year, meaning people will buy less presents.

Will U.S. holiday retail sales fall by 1 percent or less this year?

Sports

The Titans are still undefeated this season, and from our Hubdub forecast it seems the Jets will have less than a 40% chance of ending the Titan winning spree this week.

NFL - Which opponent will be the first to defeat the Tennessee Titans in 2008?

Entertainment

For those out there who don’t care about the missing nuclear bomb or important stuff like that you can always watch Dancing with the Stars. This week we’re forecasting who will win the prized mirror ball trophy. Brooke Burke seems is the front runner with Hubdub giving her a 60% chance of winning the award.

DWTS-Who will win the mirror ball trophy this year on Dancing with the Stars?

Popularity: 18% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

 2008 Presidential Election

With a day to go Hubdub users forecast there’s a 90% chance that Barack Obama is elected. In the last few days the price on Obama has jumped 10% as it becomes clearer and clearer that for the GOP 2008 is shaping up to be a electoral washout.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

When I say Hubdubber’s are forecasting an electoral washout I have the market data to prove it! Currently Hubdub predicts that the electoral vote margin between McCain and Obama will at least be over 119 votes.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

Sometimes you need a break from all the political double talk you get from Obama and McCain. So why not try listening to ‘Joe the Plumbers’ rumored country album? Unfortunately it’s doubtful you’ll get the chance, as Hubdub forecasts there’s a 10% chance an album gets released before Inauguration Day.

Will Joe The Plumber release a country album by Inauguration Day?

Entertainment

One of the most memorable characters this year has been the Joker from the Dark Knight. With Ledger’s work winning praise from all since his passing, will he be honored by the Dark Knight being nominated? By 55% Hubdub predicts yes!

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

Gaming

Everyone likes Grand Theft Auto besides uptight parents who don’t want their kids learning about prostitution and drugs. You know who hates GTA players the most though? Probably the developers since they’ve decided to delay the PC launch by another month!

When will GTA IV be released for the PC ?

World News

One of Berlin’s oldest airports, Tempelhof closed its doors last week, but they forgot something… To let the planes waiting to takeoff leave. So now 3 planes are awaiting further instructions. Hubdubbers forecast at least one plane is removed from Tempelhof not by flying itself.

What will happen to the Tempelhof planes?

The NFL

Now that the election’s coming to a close, football fans all over can return to watching their favorite teams compete, but it’s not always a team that’s the most important. One of the most popular Hubdub NFL markets regards the Manning brothers and who’ll be a better QB. For now by 51% Hubdub forecasts Eli gets a better rating this year.

NFL: Which Manning brother will have a better year?

The Tennessee Titans are kicking butt and taking names this football season, but how long will it last? For now they’re undefeated, but Hubdubbers predict the Chicago Bears will end the Titan winning streak by 37%.

NFL - Which opponent will be the first to defeat the Tennessee Titans in 2008?

The Economic Crisis

We all love gold, but as the economic crisis gathers strength what’s its knock on effect on the price of gold? For now Hubdub forecasts that this Friday the price will close between 725.10 and 750.00 USD. The margins are close though with only 27% of the market forecasting that price.

Where will the NY Spot Gold close on Friday, November 14, 2008?

The buzz word always seems to be ‘recession,’ but soon we won’t have to worry about that fact as Hubdub forecasts the US will be in a recession within 8 weeks. There’s an 86% chance that this happens and if that doesn’t worry you I don’t know what will.

Will the National Bureau of Economic Research announce in 2008 that the U.S. is in recession?

Popularity: 21% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Election 08

Can a African American win the south? Although Barack Obama isn’t likely to win the entire south, out of all the former ‘Confederate’ states Hubdub is forecasting Barack grabs 3 states. At least that’s 3 more than Kerry got!

How many of the former Confederate States will Obama win in the Presidential Election?

Day by day Florida is looking more and more like Obama country. On the 4th though, how well will Obama perform in the specific counties? Currently by a slight margin Hubdubbers predict Obama wins 12-18 counties.

‘08 Presidential Election - How many counties in Florida will Obama win?

Early reports from states all across the country are reporting that early voting lines are systemic. Massive voter turnout is happening everywhere and it isn’t even November 4th. When the dust settles Hubdub predicts 55% of voters will turnout, but with new reports piling in every day we may just breach the 60% ceiling.

What will the voter turnout be for the 2008 Presidential election?

The McCain, Palin ticket is looking a bit drained these days, with the election a week away will Palin attempt to grab more airtime by appearing on the David Letterman show? Hubdubbers say no by 71%

Will Sarah Palin be a guest on the Late Show With David Letterman before the Election?

World News

The Suisse like liberal thinking allot, but how liberal will they go? Currently a law’s being voted on to determine whether weed should be decriminalized, and for now Hubbdubber’s doubt it’ll be passed.

Will the Suisse people vote for or against the initiative to decriminalise cannabis consumption?

Who knew? Apparently Iran has a growing ostrich industry. To celebrate this new culinary investment they created a 1500 meters long ostrich sandwich, and subsequently gobbled it up! Still unclear if it’ll be in the Guinness book of world records though.

Will huge Iranian ostrich sandwich go into the Guiness Book of Records?

Science
With all the problems on Earth right now, it’s hard to remember there’s a whole other world above us. But it’s there, and on November 14th we’ll be visiting it once again. That is, if everything goes to plan. By 82% Hubdub users forecast Space Shuttle Endeavour launches on time.

Will STS-126 (Space Shuttle Endeavour) Launch on or Before Nov 15th 2008?

Sports

Almost every single time someone mentions Lance Armstrong we’re reminded of the numerous drug testing scandals he went through. Lance has always maintained his innocence and nothing’s ever been proven, but the French are at it again, insisting that Lance is a ‘villain.’ Overwhelmingly Hubdub forecasts Lance is not found to be a doper, again…

Will Lance be our Hero or the Villain after all?

Credit Crunch

Markets are down again today, so it seems we’re caught in an endless tumble towards world recession. Every time a shimmer of hope arises on the markets, it’s quickly wiped out. Therefore Hubdub predicts at least 36-40 more triple digit swings on the Dow this year and maybe even more. Don’t worry though there’s good news somewhere…

How many triple digit point swings will the DJIA have left in 2008?

Remember how I was saying there was good news out there? Well it’s the plunging price of gas. So if you can afford the ‘credit tsunami’ drowning Wall Street and don’t drive a tank to work your in alright shape. Here’s some even better news, Hubdub forecasts it’s 80% or more likely that gas falls below $2.50 this year.

Will gas prices drop below $2.50 before the end of the year?

Popularity: 22% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Credit Crunch

Two weeks ago we were predicting whether the DOW would drop below 10,000. Shortly thereafter the market dropped right through that mark. Now as the DOW just tries to stay afloat the question lingers, have we seen the worst of it? Sadly Hubdubbers doubt it’s over, forecasting the DOW will close below 7,000 in 2008.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2008?

We’ve all heard the rumors about a GM Chrysler merger but at first it didn’t seem possible. As the markets worsen though, this deal seems more and more plausible. Companies like GM are on the edge of an abyss, falling SUV sales and a failing economy are pushing this merger, but will it happen? For now 60% of Hubdubbers still think it won’t.

Will GM and Chrysler be announced to merge before December 15?

The markets are rebounding right now, after world leaders announced more plans to rebuild the broken financial markets. The start of this week looks good in comparison with the last two weeks where stunning losses were followed by only more stunning losses. As the weeks moves on though can they continue their rebound or will more bad news lead to more losses?

Will Dow (DJIA) close up the week Oct 13-17?

The Election Heats Up

Is John McCain your friend? If you’ve been watching him recite ‘My Friends’ this and ‘My friends’ that you’d think he’s the most popular person in the world. For Wednesdays debate look forward to more ‘My Friends’ this and ‘My friends’ that, as Hubdub forecasts McCain says ‘My friends’ more than 12 times. Phew, that was 5 ‘My friends’ right there!

3rd Presidential Debate Oct 15 — How many times will McCain address the audience as, “my friends”?

It seems the one person being helped by the financial crisis is Barack Obama. Since the DOW crash Obama’s lead in the polls has grown exponentially. If Obama does win, Hubdub users forecast there’s a 48% chance that he wins in a landslide, getting at least 2/3 of the electoral votes.

Will Barack Obama win a landslide victory (at least 2/3 of electoral college votes)?

World News

Can a country go bankrupt? The answer is yes if a government defaults. Following Iceland’s nationalization of its banks, some have alluded to the possibility of national bankruptcy. Fortunately Hubdub users give Iceland only a 25% chance of bankruptcy in the near future.

Will Iceland be officially bankrupt by the end of the year?

Canada’s not usually known for political violence. Although, recently some Liberal party supporters have awoken to find their car brake lines cut. The vandalism is being investigated by police. Although hubdubbers doubt anyone will be arrested, giving only a 21% chance of arrests being made.

Will any of the brake-line cutting vandals of Toronto Liberal supporters be arrested?

Sport

Instant replay has been around in the NFL for a long time, but just this season it’s been introduced into the MLB. With the biggest event coming up this month, Hubdub users are forecasting by 60% that instant replay will be used to determine or challenge a call in the World Series.

Will instant replay be used to determine or challenge a call in the 2008 World Series

Odd Stuff
There’s the Olympics and then there’s the the World Mind Games. For armchair generals the Beijing Mind Games offer an array of brain strengthening events in bridge, chess, draughts, Go and Xiangqi. It’s a chance for those who were never really  popular in high school to regain some self esteem. Home ground advantage seems to be proving true as Hubdubbers predict Asia tops the gold medal tally.

A country from which region will top the gold medal tally at the World Mind Games?

Entertainment

In one swoop Tina Fey saved Saturday Night Live from cancellation. As Sarah Palin Tina brought in swathes of new viewers. In the final days of the election rumors are abound of a joint Sarah Palin, Tina Fey SNL appearance, but will it happen? 75% of Hubdubbers forecast it will.

Will Tina Fey and Sarah Palin make a joint appearance on SNL prior to the November election?

Popularity: 16% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Economic Crisis

Let’s be frank our economy isn’t doing that great. All financial indicators point to things getting worse before they get better.  The first attempt at passing a bailout bill left the financial markets in tailspin, but Congress gets another chance to make things right. Thankfully Hubdub forecasts there’s an 84% chance Congress will pass a bailout package by the end of October.

Will the US Congress pass a bailout package by the end of October

The financial crisis widens everyday, but how does that translate into cold numbers?  The highest Dow opening was 13,198.10 in 2007, since then the markets have dropped significantly. We’re now in sight of passing through the 10,000.00 mark on our slippery downwards slope. For now over 60% of users predict we won’t have to deal with the Dow closing below 10,000.00, but in this tough economic climate that forecast could change rapidly.

When will the Dow close below 10,000?

Some say we’re in recession, some say we ain’t. What might not be a technical recession though sure feels like one. A recession is measured on GDP values, and successive quarters of negative GDP growth equal a recession. We have four quarters in a year and so far our 3rd quarter is looking quite dismal with estimates of only 2.8% growth. Happily though Hubdubber’s don’t forecast negative growth in the third quarter.

hird querterWill the US economy have negative growth in the third quarter 2008?

Vice Presidential Debate - Palin and Biden duke it out

The Vice Presidential Debate is this week and although some might want to talk about important issues like energy security and health care, the majority of people are a bit more vane. The important issue for us Hubdubber’s is whether Palin wears a Skirt or Pants.

VP debate Oct 2: Will Sarah Palin wear a skirt or pants?

World News

The coast off Somalia has been host to brazen Pirate attacks in the past month. Recently though some pirates have gotten sick. Is the reason WMD’s? When the pirates commandeered an Iranian vessel they encountered more then they bargained for, and some died due to toxic chemicals stored on the ship. What those chemicals are though still remains a mystery?

Will it be determined that a Iranian ship overtaken by pirates contains chemical weapons?

Science

This years Nobel Prize in Medicine is shoring up to be quite interesting, over 190 names have been submitted for the prize, but where will the winner come from? Most Hubdub users predict North America’s got dibs, but the Europeans and Asians have contributed much to medical science in the past decade. Where will the winner come from?

To which world region will this year’s Nobel Prize in Medicine go?

MLB Playoffs

We’re nearing the world series now, but first we have to get through the tough stuff. First up we have the LA Angels facing the Boston Red Sox in the American League divisions series. Hubdubbers think the likely winner of the series will be the Angels. In the National League division series it’s the Milwaukee Brewers versus the Philadelphia Phillies. For that match up Hubdubbers are forecasting the Phillies win the series in 4 games by only 23%! This is gonna be close!

MLB - Who will win the AL divisional series between the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Angels?

MLB - Who will win the NL divisional series between Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies?

Odd Stuff

David Blane’s a nutter! There’s no getting around that simple point, but at least we get some enjoyment out of his crazy frolicking. Hubdubber’s currently think he’ll stage another wacky and some might say stupid stunt next year. The real question should be will he be alive to perform his next stunt?

Will David Blane stage another large scale stunt in the next year?

TV Shows

Some shows should just die! Prime example being the new Knight Rider. Let’s face it, it’s not great, it’s got bad actors and it’s a drama featuring a talking car. Need any more be said? Apparently not as over 50% of Hubdub users forecast that Knight Rider will get the axe before January 1st.

Fall TV Preview: How will NBC’s Knight Rider do this season?

Popularity: 16% [?]

Nothing has yet replaced the newspaper front page as a means to convey powerful messages. Here are some of the most striking of the past 40 years.

8. Olympic Games Rocked by Black Power Salute (1968)

Perhaps the most overt political statement in the 110 year history of the Olymbic Games. African American athletes Tommie Smith and John Carlos performed their Power to the People salute at the 1968 Summer Olympics in Mexico City.

7. Murderers (1997)

The Daily Mail accused the five men with the murder of of Stephen Lawrence. The men had all been arrested but never convicted after a botched police investigation.

6. Challenge to the Crown (2000)

‘In the new millennium Britain should be given the choice whether to keep the royal family or to become a republic’, stated The Guardian in this controversial edition on the State Opening of Parliament.

5. Brighton Bomb (1984)

An IRA bomb ripped through the Grand Hotel in Brighton during the Conservative Party Conference in 1984. The bombs failed to kill Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher or any of her government ministers, but did kill five others.

4. The War is Over (2005)

Britain’s troubled relations with Ireland in the 20th century saw the Easter Rising, the birth of the Irish Free State - today the Irish Republic - and the Troubles. The Independent’s story reflected a potential turning point.

3. No News (2004)

The Independent made a power statement with their ‘No News Today’ headline which carried the foot note of ‘Just 6,500 Africans died today as a result of a preventable, treatable disease. [HIV/Aids]’

2. Gotcha (1982)

News of the sinking of the Argentine cruiser General Belgrano, by a British submarine during the Falklands war, was greeted enthusiastically by The Sun. Later editions led with ‘Did 1,500 Argies Drown?’.

1. War on America (2001)

An unforgettable image of New York’s Twin Towers ablaze together with a simple headline.

Popularity: 31% [?]

A guest post from my brother, Trevor, in response to the news consumption survey:

A couple of points in your article.

The first is your use of the word “consumption”. I think it might just be a suitable behind-the-scenes word for news, but I’m not sure if it’s the word “for the public, to the public”. To use an analogy that is closer to the word “consume”, you may consume drugs because you’re an addict, you may consume a Big Mac and fries because you’re hungry, but you wouldn’t “consume” a 500 dollar meal for two at a Michelin-starred restaurant. You’d taste it, you’d enjoy it, and you’d savour it.

Thus also for news. One broad division of “news” might be: things that could make a difference to our lives, private and professional, by knowing them, and things that definitely won’t. Glancing at a paper, it’s clear to me that nearly everything for nearly everyone falls into the second category.

And I mention this to explain the lesser popularity aggregators are facing. The “facts”, the events themselves, are not as important as the “story” or the narrative. We are not interested in purely in events – because they rarely directly matter to us in themselves – but rather in the manner in which they are presented. News aggregators tend to strip this all away. People say they aren’t interested in getting information from sources that reflect their viewpoints, but then they buy The Guardian if they’re leftwing, and The Telegraph if they are to the right. If they are supremely proud of their independent minds, they buy The Independent, which flatters them on that too. All this because the story becomes the entertainment, told in the way the reader likes.

Ok, don’t know if any of this helps, but “consuming” news doesn’t sound at all like something that’s in itself enjoyable. And if a thing is futile, which most “news” is, it had better be fun.

In general I agree, particularly on consumption; news consumption certainly doesn’t sound like much fun. Maybe instead of describing people as news consumers we should describe them as news connoisseurs? On whether readers want news that reflects their views I’m not so sure. US media blogger Steve Boriss notes here that he prefers our lively politically bias press to US newspaper’s dry liberal consensus. However, on the other hand, personalised news services seem to be a one way ticket to the deadpool (see Techcrunch write-up here). I guess we want our news channels to talk to us, but not only to us.

Popularity: 7% [?]

This is part 3 of our online news consumption survey. Part 1 is here and Part 2 is here. 

What they want

Interestingly what respondents don’t want is ‘articles with a similar outlook on the world as myself’ (11% scored 4 or 5). In the comments respondents specifically asked for articles giving opposing views on the topic. Another factor that wasn’t valued was ‘strong community’ with only 19% scoring 4 or 5.  
Thoughts: Basically, what everyone’s ideal is an easy to use site that selects relevant high quality articles from a broad range of publications in a timely fashion. This was a very positive result for us as this was exactly what we had set out to achieve! Also interesting is the needs of lighter news consumers is similar to heavy news consumers, which means that if we can develop a great product for heavy news consumers we will have a great product for lighter users as well. Comprehensive coverage of blogs was low down the list (44% scoring 4 or 5), suggesting again that this is a low priority.

When asked what one thing the site should do the response was: 

Thoughts: The personalisation that most people wanted was a behind the scenes tracking of interests (much like the way Amazon recommends products) rather than them having to manually personalise. Many of the elements wanted raise deep questions about how news should be organised and presented. It will be fun working with everyone as we develop the product to see if we are hitting those wants. 

Current news sources

The top news sources were:

1. BBC (25 mentions)
2. New York Times (9 mentions)
3. Guardian (8 mentions)
4. Google News (7 mentions)

The BBC and the Guardian both received significant praise for the design and usability of the site. Even though in general the respondents were very internet literate and higher than average online news consumers, use of news aggregators was low with only Google News getting a significant number of mentions. We will need to dig further to understand the underlying reasons for that.

Nigel

Popularity: 8% [?]