Part of the vision behind launching Hubdub was that prediction markets could offer news consumers (i.e. most of us) a better way to cut through the news media generated noise and find out what is really happening. For example, ‘Is Obama’s lead really strengthening?’, ‘Has Labour lost in Glenrothes?’ (last week the Sunday Times talked about the Labour bounce; this week how they have SNP cruising home) and ‘How big an opening will Quantum of Solace have?’.

Originally, I thought the best solution would be to ban journalists from using the phrases ‘increasingly’ or ‘more and more’ unless they have hard data to back it up. Being in no position to enforce such a ban I realized that better solution would be allow people to create prediction markets about the news stories they are following. Hubdub now tracks over 2,000 current news stories and we’ve been looking a ways to get that market data more widely distributed.

To achieve that, we’ve started working with MidasOracle.com. MidasOracle.com aims to become a hub for prediction market journalism on the web, using forecasts from all of the top prediction markets to explain current news stories. I will be posting regularly with on MidasOracle.com with my first post on the three closest states in the US election.

Popularity: 6% [?]

Image via WikipediaWe are pleased to announce our new partnership with the UK Independent, one of the UK’s most innovative national newspapers. The Independent successfully relaunched independent.co.uk earlier this year improving user interaction through blogs and forums. We are now adding predictions to that mix.

Press release:

The Independent lets users make the news

The Independent has just partnered with a new prediction website to allow their users to predict the outcomes of news stories.

The prediction site, Hubdub, allows users to trade predictions with virtual money on the outcomes of breaking news stories and future events, with approximately 2 million Hubdub dollars traded daily. As part of a new, dedicated section within the site, The Independent generates questions for users to trade on based on the latest breaking news, ranging in topics from the current credit crunch to football to politics.

Additional tools and resources are also included to help build a community for The Independent within the site, http://www.hubdub.com/partners/theindependent. These include a “friends” application, comment capabilities, links to the top Independent stories of the day and widgets which are embedded in The Independent’s own website.

Finally, because Hubdub prediction markets aggregate thousands of trades, the site often produces accurate forecasts on the likelihood of future events. Beyond weighing in on the outcome, users are able to reference the site for up-to-the-minute information on the public’s predictions about breaking news from The Independent.

Jimmy Leach, editorial director for digital at the Independent said: ‘It’s a tremendously exciting partnership we’re beginning, enabling our millions of news junkie users to predict the outcome of both the serious and the trivial. There’s a tremendous fit between our audience and the addictive functionality of Hubdub and we’re looking forward to expanding the offering in the next few months.’

Examples of The Independent’s questions on Hubdub:
• Will UK inflation hit 6% this year?
• Will house prices continue to fall until the end of the year?
• Will Scotland be given the 2012 European Championships?
• Will Kevin Keegan be Newcastle manager by the end of the month?

Popularity: 9% [?]

By Ryan (Politics Category Editor)

Every day the intensity of the attacks brought upon Hillary Clinton increase. We hear how she’s behind in the popular vote as well as the delegate count. And we hear how the possibility of regaining a lead in those categories get slimmer by the hour. But those statistics won’t be the straw that break the camels back. So what will be?

The answer is the media. We’ve seen the SNL skits and watched Clinton’s complaints but the media bias has continued. Oddly enough though, the bias shouldn’t be laid at the medias feet. In fact the only one responsible for the bias is Clinton herself. But why is this the case?

Well, if politics is a game, albeit an important game Clinton’s loss in the primaries have occurred because she hasn’t played the game well enough. The mistake of setting herself as the established nominee and initial mismanagement of Bill were examples of errors that gave the media a narrative of failure and elitism. When inklings of this bias first developed the campaign should have stomped them out, instead the narrative simmered and grew until it was to extensive to be put down. By the time Clinton’s complaints were aired the narrative had been set. Clinton can comeback, resignations like Penn’s won’t help but the media always likes a underdog. It’ ain’t over till it’s over!

So in an era where electronics rather than paper are the medias medium which source has the least bias? After months of statistical study, 5,000 interviews and gigabytes of hard drive space I have the answer!

It’s Complicated

I’ve looked at the three main American news outlets. FOX, MSNBC and CNN. While most would throw FOX right out the window and let it simmer in its own urine, I think I’ve been a bit more subdued. FOX for all its faults covers Clinton at times reasonably well. Whether this is a “right-wing” conspiracy or a weird twist of fate I leave up to you…

MSNBC on the other hand offers a much more left sided perspective. If you watch Chris Mathews or Keith Olbermann the slant towards Obama is noticeable and at times repetitive and annoying. I must admit though that MSNBC is my favorite station for politics. The reason being that MSNBC out of all the other stations seems to have the most in depth political commentary and best shows. Hardball (besides Mathew’s Obama tainted slant) is full of good analysis and punditry all week long.

Onwards to CNN. Out of all the three broadcasters CNN is the most objective. It has a good right left split and lacks the core subjectivity that MSNBC and FOX bring along with broadcasting. Unfortunately you can’t have your cake and eat it to. The problem with CNN is that at times it seems too childish. In trying to reach as many viewing markets as possible CNN cuts down on the complexity of politics and simplifies everything. When watching CNN I want to shout “where’s the analysis, where are the pundits!”

So which should you choose? I can’t endorse one outlet or the other because although I watch MSNBC the most, I religiously watch all three. If your really a political connoisseur you should watch all three. Yes they all come from different colors of the spectrum, but if you want to understand the complexities of American politics and create your own informed opinion you might as well get informed by multiple sources.

Related Questions:

Which site, MSNBC or CNN will have more visitors by June?

Who will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?

Which Democratic Candidate will have the most delegates going into the convention?

Will Hillary Clinton regain the lead in the popular vote by the convention?

Popularity: 10% [?]