Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

 2008 Presidential Election

With a day to go Hubdub users forecast there’s a 90% chance that Barack Obama is elected. In the last few days the price on Obama has jumped 10% as it becomes clearer and clearer that for the GOP 2008 is shaping up to be a electoral washout.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

When I say Hubdubber’s are forecasting an electoral washout I have the market data to prove it! Currently Hubdub predicts that the electoral vote margin between McCain and Obama will at least be over 119 votes.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

Sometimes you need a break from all the political double talk you get from Obama and McCain. So why not try listening to ‘Joe the Plumbers’ rumored country album? Unfortunately it’s doubtful you’ll get the chance, as Hubdub forecasts there’s a 10% chance an album gets released before Inauguration Day.

Will Joe The Plumber release a country album by Inauguration Day?

Entertainment

One of the most memorable characters this year has been the Joker from the Dark Knight. With Ledger’s work winning praise from all since his passing, will he be honored by the Dark Knight being nominated? By 55% Hubdub predicts yes!

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

Gaming

Everyone likes Grand Theft Auto besides uptight parents who don’t want their kids learning about prostitution and drugs. You know who hates GTA players the most though? Probably the developers since they’ve decided to delay the PC launch by another month!

When will GTA IV be released for the PC ?

World News

One of Berlin’s oldest airports, Tempelhof closed its doors last week, but they forgot something… To let the planes waiting to takeoff leave. So now 3 planes are awaiting further instructions. Hubdubbers forecast at least one plane is removed from Tempelhof not by flying itself.

What will happen to the Tempelhof planes?

The NFL

Now that the election’s coming to a close, football fans all over can return to watching their favorite teams compete, but it’s not always a team that’s the most important. One of the most popular Hubdub NFL markets regards the Manning brothers and who’ll be a better QB. For now by 51% Hubdub forecasts Eli gets a better rating this year.

NFL: Which Manning brother will have a better year?

The Tennessee Titans are kicking butt and taking names this football season, but how long will it last? For now they’re undefeated, but Hubdubbers predict the Chicago Bears will end the Titan winning streak by 37%.

NFL - Which opponent will be the first to defeat the Tennessee Titans in 2008?

The Economic Crisis

We all love gold, but as the economic crisis gathers strength what’s its knock on effect on the price of gold? For now Hubdub forecasts that this Friday the price will close between 725.10 and 750.00 USD. The margins are close though with only 27% of the market forecasting that price.

Where will the NY Spot Gold close on Friday, November 14, 2008?

The buzz word always seems to be ‘recession,’ but soon we won’t have to worry about that fact as Hubdub forecasts the US will be in a recession within 8 weeks. There’s an 86% chance that this happens and if that doesn’t worry you I don’t know what will.

Will the National Bureau of Economic Research announce in 2008 that the U.S. is in recession?

Popularity: 20% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

2008 Election Over?

Some are saying it’s already over and packing their bags, but is it? McCain has many obstacles to surmount in the next week, but John has comeback from the dead before. Endorsements from party faithfuls like Colin Powell don’t help though. Currently Hubdub forecasts McCain has less than a 15% chance of winning.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Pundits are saying November 4th is shaping up to be a landslide win for Obama. This election could still get very, very tight though, and in the end it’s all about the electoral votes. For now Hubdub users disagree with pundits and predict a narrow election by just 45 Electoral Votes or less.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

North Carolina’s known for being a staunch GOP state. In the Dem. primaries Obama won the state, but for the summer McCain was in the lead by double digits. As the economy nears the edge of recession though it seems North Carolina may switch sides. Even now by over 60% Hubdub forecasts Obama grabs the state.

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Barack Obama has purchased 30 minutes of primetime TV on October 29th to address the nation. This will be Obama’s last chance to ’seal the deal.’ But how many people will be watching? Hubdub users think 50 million or more.

How many people will watch Barack Obama’s primetime address on 10/29?

Odd Stuff

Some might think Rock, Paper, Scissors is just a kids game but this stuff is hardcore! There’s even a World Championship in Toronto on the 25th. As to what will be the winning play rock, paper or scissors even Hubdub’s unsure just yet.

Rock Paper Scissors-What will be the winning final “throw” @ 2008 Int’l Championships?

Sports

It’s World Series time, and although the elections and economy might be getting the most attention, sports fans are going crazy. This year we have the Philadelphia Phillies facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays. By tight margins Hubdub users are forecasting a win by the Rays, but the Phillies aren’t pushovers. Good luck to both teams!

MLB World Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays - Series Outcome?

World News

Thailand’s in the midst of a political crisis right now. The first two prime ministers have gone rather quickly and now just a month into the job the thirds tenure is looking shaky. Hubdubbers predict the third prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is gone by November.

When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?

The Internet

Reddit is one of the most well known social media sites on the web, although we at Hubdub like to think we’re pretty popular too. In September Reddit brought in 3,300,327 unique visitors. Can they top that result by getting over 5 million unique hits before 2009? Less than 30% of Hubdubbers say yes.

Will Reddit.com reach 5 million Unique Visitors - Monthly in 2008?

Financial Meltdown

We’ve been through turbulent times these last weeks. The markets have gone up and up and then teetered off a cliff into a pack of ravenous wolves. Are we through the worst of it? Will we have anymore big swings in the Dow during October? Hubdub says don’t hold your breath it ain’t over yet!

How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?

Everyone likes to think that American money is American money. We’re in a interdependent world though, where one thing effects another. We’re also a country in tons of debt, who has all of our debt? Japan, but China’s catching up. By March 2009 Hubdubbers still forecast Japan holds the most American debt.

Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)

Popularity: 20% [?]

By Ryan Jacobs (Politics Category Editor)

For months we’ve watched the Democratic nomination drudgingly soldier on. Now though the light at the end of the tunnel has finally appeared. As we near the end of the nominating process lets analyze what got us to this point.

At the end of April it still seemed like the fight between Clinton and Obama was a competition. McCain although out in the GOP wilderness was building his machine and raising funds. But as April turned into May a momentous shift occurred showcased by the market chart above. Around May 6-7th the entire Who will be the next President market shifted.

Clinton’s price began a slow but steady downwards slope and this price decrease boosted Obama’s standing, leading him to break free from McCain and soar ahead. Despite fallout from Reverend Wright and other political gaffes Obama’s been able to not only maintain a lead in the markets but build on it.

Oddly, the Gallup polls show a close general election race between Obama and McCain, but the markets which are asking the same question have very different results. They show what seems to be a knockout win for Obama in November. The question is why is this happening? It’s possible that Gallup responders are tinged more by ideology and don’t just take into consideration the facts but also predict who they want to be the next President. Prediction markets users don’t predict who they hope will be the next President, there predictions are based almost solely on cold hard calculations of who will be the next President. This is because they want the large payoff from predicting correct.

So what events or event caused the sudden change in the markets? If we track this back to the primaries, 2 come to mind, the May 6th Indiana and North Carolina primaries. After these as seen through the market Obama began his quick ascension, while Clinton and McCain both faltered.

So why did McCain and Clinton both falter after Indiana and North Carolina? Well, Obama won Carolina with large margins and was able to keep Clinton’s win in Indiana small, therefore he was finally able to shut her down. With Clinton all but officially done Obama could now focus on McCain. As Obama focused on McCain it became clearer and clearer who of the two was the front runner for the Presidential election and the market adjusted for this showcased by McCain’s slow downturn and Obama’s rapid ascent.

Obama now holds a major lead in the markets and once Clinton is officially gone I’d predict Obama’s price will inflate once again. The problem is when will the downturn happen? Obama can’t fly like this forever and soon enough the GOP will begin to mercilessly attack. The election this year won’t be a blowout for Obama and soon enough the markets will adjust to this, the question is when?

what is this?

Who will be the next President of the U.S.?

% chance over time

    John McCain

    Mike Huckabee

    Ron Paul

    Ralph Nader

    Mike Bloomberg

    Hillary Clinton

    Barack Obama

    Other

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Hubdub - The News Prediction Game

Popularity: 18% [?]

By Ryan (Politics Category Editor)

With the recent upsurge in violence in Iraq and the visible inability of the Iraqi Army to clamp down on Shia militias in Basra and Sadr City, Iraq is still a tense and brutal environment. The power to control the multi-faceted nation has not yet been resolved and the sectarian struggle for true representation is now hampered by more conflict within the religious and political factions vying for control.

But for Americans while the cost of the war grows, its impacts on the presidential campaign present a danger to the GOP, or do they? How has the Mahdi Army violence effected McCain? Well heres a surprise, it really hasn’t. McCain’s price hasn’t really changed since Maliki began his campaign in Basra on the 24^th, as evidenced by his price on Hubdub. Shown here:

So how has a upsurge in violence not decreased McCain’s price?

Some may say that the violence now ensuing southern Iraq and Sadr city is just between Iraqi’s. Therefore it lacks major US involvement on the ground. Unfortunately this analysis lacks the images of a smoke obscured Green Zone under mortar and rocket attack. Not to mention the deaths of US citizens within the Green Zone. It’s true that US involvement in the recently launched campaign against Shia militias is very limited, but the violence has been widely reported in the US media. So what gives? Why would a supporter of an unpopular war, from the party of an unpopular President be able to to stay so high in price?

How about the economy? With a slide into recession still front page news maybe McCain’s more conservative economic policies are holding sway with voters and overwriting opposition to the war, maybe, just maybe. Even if Iraq looks dreadful voters are overlooking that constant reality and worrying about their wallets. Keep in mind the ever wise theme “it’s the economy stupid!” Even if McCain’s conservative economic policies aren’t a hit with voters, the importance of the economy is still overshadowing Iraq. Voters can’t pay attention to a war in a far away country when their pocketbooks are in peril. The war has become so ingrained that the violence there is now an afterthought.

So is Iraq no longer a hinderer for the GOP? Certainly not! Even if McCain isn’t faltering due to the current violence in Iraq, the amount of bad feeling that the war has caused will stick with him throughout this election. The election was the Democrats to lose and increasingly in what was a surefire Democratic win the prospects are much more even. If the Democrats lose this election the November 5^th New York Times headline will read “Blown Opportunity!”

Heres to hoping this campaign was going to be short and sweet…..

Related Questions:

Who will win the Presidential election, Democrats or Republicans?

Who will be the next President of the US?

When will the US pull out of Iraq?

Will the cease-fire order between the Mahdi Army and Coalition and Iraqi forces be rescinded by May 31st 2008?

Popularity: 9% [?]