By Ryan (Politics Category Editor)

With the recent upsurge in violence in Iraq and the visible inability of the Iraqi Army to clamp down on Shia militias in Basra and Sadr City, Iraq is still a tense and brutal environment. The power to control the multi-faceted nation has not yet been resolved and the sectarian struggle for true representation is now hampered by more conflict within the religious and political factions vying for control.

But for Americans while the cost of the war grows, its impacts on the presidential campaign present a danger to the GOP, or do they? How has the Mahdi Army violence effected McCain? Well heres a surprise, it really hasn’t. McCain’s price hasn’t really changed since Maliki began his campaign in Basra on the 24^th, as evidenced by his price on Hubdub. Shown here:

So how has a upsurge in violence not decreased McCain’s price?

Some may say that the violence now ensuing southern Iraq and Sadr city is just between Iraqi’s. Therefore it lacks major US involvement on the ground. Unfortunately this analysis lacks the images of a smoke obscured Green Zone under mortar and rocket attack. Not to mention the deaths of US citizens within the Green Zone. It’s true that US involvement in the recently launched campaign against Shia militias is very limited, but the violence has been widely reported in the US media. So what gives? Why would a supporter of an unpopular war, from the party of an unpopular President be able to to stay so high in price?

How about the economy? With a slide into recession still front page news maybe McCain’s more conservative economic policies are holding sway with voters and overwriting opposition to the war, maybe, just maybe. Even if Iraq looks dreadful voters are overlooking that constant reality and worrying about their wallets. Keep in mind the ever wise theme “it’s the economy stupid!” Even if McCain’s conservative economic policies aren’t a hit with voters, the importance of the economy is still overshadowing Iraq. Voters can’t pay attention to a war in a far away country when their pocketbooks are in peril. The war has become so ingrained that the violence there is now an afterthought.

So is Iraq no longer a hinderer for the GOP? Certainly not! Even if McCain isn’t faltering due to the current violence in Iraq, the amount of bad feeling that the war has caused will stick with him throughout this election. The election was the Democrats to lose and increasingly in what was a surefire Democratic win the prospects are much more even. If the Democrats lose this election the November 5^th New York Times headline will read “Blown Opportunity!”

Heres to hoping this campaign was going to be short and sweet…..

Related Questions:

Who will win the Presidential election, Democrats or Republicans?

Who will be the next President of the US?

When will the US pull out of Iraq?

Will the cease-fire order between the Mahdi Army and Coalition and Iraqi forces be rescinded by May 31st 2008?

Popularity: 10% [?]

  By Nigel

Over the past three weeks Hubdub users have created some very funny and inventive questions. For example, ‘Will Dick Cheney bag another attorney this year when hunting at Armstrong Ranch?‘

However, what has provoked real discussion is the morality of questions like ‘How many American soldiers will be killed in Iraq in February 2008?‘ or ‘Will Britney Spears be alive on December 31 2008?‘

On the question of the morality of questions I’ve struggled to come up with what is the right answer. Fundamentally it feels wrong to profit (even virtually) from someone else’s tragedy. However, it would be strange for us to self-censor ourselves from making predictions about something professional journalists are already discussing and making predictions on.

One of the things that influenced me when we were developing the site was a comment made by the UK Secretary of Defence, Dr John Reid, when we were sending troops into Afghanistan. He said that ‘hopefully the troops would return without firing a shot’. Additionally, at the time it seemed there lacked any real national debate on why we were committing more troops to Afghanistan and what their objective was. The British Army is now fighting one of its most intense operations since Korea resulting in 82 British fatalties in the last 2 years.

Elsewhere prediction markets have shown the ability to be one of the best means of aggregating information and forecasting future events (and particularly better than politicians with a vested interest). I believe if we have a sufficient user base then we could not only have an accurate forecast of the outcome of these decisions but could also act as a forum for public debate on whether the decision was worth the cost. So while questions like this feel distasteful I think they could potentially have real social value.

However, those are my own thoughts. I’d really like to know where you thought was the line on this.

Popularity: 8% [?]