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Meet Obama’s Cabinet

Monday, November 10th, 2008

The election might be over, but for the politics geeks out there the fun is nowhere near done! Everyone seems to be talking about who’ll be in Obama’s cabinet, but if you’re looking for the real numbers breakdown based on the wisdom of the crowds, look no further. We’ve already correctly predicted Rahm Emanuel as Obama’s Chief of Staff!

Secretary of State: Initially many suspected John Kerry, in recent days though his stock dropped significantly (less than 20% chance now), even being overtaken by Bill Richardson at one point. Hubdub forecasts though that Obama won’t pick either Richardson or Kerry instead he’ll look for someone else, not currently known.

Who will be Obama’s Secretary of State?

Secretary of Defense: Along with others, Hubdubbers see Robert Gates, the current SecDef to be continuing his role after Bush leaves. Gate’s price is over 50% which is a good indicator, and his closest competitor is Chuck Hagel at just 16%.

Who will be President Obama’s Secretary of Defense?

Attorney General: Janet Napolitano is the front runner for Attorney General. Some rumors from the beltway even point to Napolitano being quite happy with the possibility.

Who will be President Obama’s Attorney General?

Energy Secretary: For all the Schwarzenegger fans out there I’m sorry to say, but it’s unlikely we’ll get Arnie in the cabinet to ‘terminate’ global warming. However I’ll admit it’d be awesome!

Will Arnold Schwarzenegger be President Obama’s Energy Secretary?

Treasury Secretary: Although suggestions of either Paulson staying on or Obama adviser, friend and billionaire Warren Bufftet taking Paulson’s place were intriguing, Hubdub is forecasting Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner will take the spot.

Who will be the selection of a new Treasury secretary under President Obama?

Other Notable Picks According to Hubdub Markets:

To get the most up to date forecasts on likely picks for Obama’s cabinet check out our new RSS Feeds here.

Popularity: 15% [?]

Hubdub Launches UK Edition

Monday, November 10th, 2008

Hubdub UK LogoWe’re delighted to be able to offer our UK Hubdubbers their very own UK Edition of Hubdub. Now Hubdubbers based in the UK can now see news stories that other UK users are predicting on, simply by selecting the UK Edition at the top right of the home page.

Interestingly, the US site’s most popular stories today are all around the Presidential Inauguration and Obama’s cabinent appointments, while the UK site’s top listings are X-Factor, Strictly Come Dancing and Everton v Middlesborough. What does this say about the UK, I wonder?  ;-)

Here is the press release that we issued today in the UK:

Edinburgh, 10 November 2008: News junkies in the UK can now get an additional fix, by predicting the outcome of news stories – engaging in news stories instead of just reading them.

Users of Hubdub, which launches in the UK today, use a pot of virtual money to place bets on the outcome of any of over 2000 running news stories, covering the likes of politics, sport, business and entertainment.

Since launching earlier this year in the US, Edinburgh-based Hubdub has garnered a substantial and loyal following, with over 200,000 unique visitors per month, 800,000 predictions to date and over 2 million Hubdub dollars staked every day. Some users are spending several hours a day on the site, with many of them confessing to a definite Hubdub “addiction” on the site’s forum.

The fact that it’s Hubdub dollars at stake is apparently irrelevant – Hubdub users are so competitive that the most important thing is that they prove they were right to the rest of the vibrant community. How much is won or lost depends on not only how the news story turns out, but how others have predicted the outcome. Groups of friends can set up their own, dedicated leaderboard to show who has predicted most accurately.

Globally, prediction markets, the mechanism behind Hubdub, are becoming increasingly popular. In the US, the Presidential election sent the numbers of users soaring. They have proven to be more accurate than polls, and because they respond in near real-time to developing stories, more agile too. Indeed, Hubdub successfully predicted the final voting results of the US election where the majority of polls and pundits failed.

Lesley Eccles, one of the founders of Hubdub, commented: “It’s great to be launching in the UK, despite the recession. People are going to be looking for free entertainment and will turn to the web to find it. Hubdub is free, exciting and keeps you informed. In addition, news sites are looking to engage and interact further with their readers and Hubdub gives them a fantastic means to do so.”

Having secured partnerships with leading media news sites including Reuters and The Independent, Hubdub is taking prediction markets more mainstream and making them easier for casual browsers to appreciate. Sitting beside high quality news content, Hubdub provides news sites with additional ways to engage their readers, keeping them online longer and returning on a regular basis.

Current UK Markets include:
Where will Russell Brand next get a full-time job?
When will the next breach of confidential data occur?
Who will win Strictly Come Dancing?
All the games, goals and scorers in the English and Scottish football season

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Popularity: 5% [?]

Hubdub’s Electoral College Forecast Spot On!

Wednesday, November 5th, 2008

Karl RoveKarl Rove forecast 338 for ObamaNow all the US states bar Missouri have been called, the electoral votes vote tally is 364 to Obama and 173 to McCain. McCain is currently expected to take Missouri which would make Obama’s final tally 364 electoral college votes. (Check the New York Times’ excellent election map).

Using this electoral vote tally we can do a quick analysis of how accurate the various pollsters and prediction markets have been. The 3 Blue Dudes site has been tracking 84 different pollsters, pundits and prediction markets for the past few months. On the day before election day they took a snapshot of the current forecasts. 3 Blue Dudes recorded Hubdub as projecting exactly 364 electoral college votes for Obama!

The markets behind the Hubdub election map all closed prior to the polls closing. As you can see the 11 undecided moved into the McCain camp prior to the close.

How did the pollsters and pundits compare? Not so good. Only 7 of the 81 other pollsters and pundits predicted Obama winning 364 electoral votes.

Some of the major media sites, pollsters and pundits that didn’t do so well were:

New York Times: 291 to Obama (84 undecided)

CNN: 291 to Obama (90 undecided)

Washington Post: 319 to Obama

Zogby: 311 to Obama (51 undecided)

Karl Rove: 338 to Obama

All in all, a great night for Obama and a great night for Hubdub’s forecasts.

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Popularity: 6% [?]

Hubdub Hot Predictions this week

Monday, November 3rd, 2008

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

 2008 Presidential Election

With a day to go Hubdub users forecast there’s a 90% chance that Barack Obama is elected. In the last few days the price on Obama has jumped 10% as it becomes clearer and clearer that for the GOP 2008 is shaping up to be a electoral washout.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

When I say Hubdubber’s are forecasting an electoral washout I have the market data to prove it! Currently Hubdub predicts that the electoral vote margin between McCain and Obama will at least be over 119 votes.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

Sometimes you need a break from all the political double talk you get from Obama and McCain. So why not try listening to ‘Joe the Plumbers’ rumored country album? Unfortunately it’s doubtful you’ll get the chance, as Hubdub forecasts there’s a 10% chance an album gets released before Inauguration Day.

Will Joe The Plumber release a country album by Inauguration Day?

Entertainment

One of the most memorable characters this year has been the Joker from the Dark Knight. With Ledger’s work winning praise from all since his passing, will he be honored by the Dark Knight being nominated? By 55% Hubdub predicts yes!

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

Gaming

Everyone likes Grand Theft Auto besides uptight parents who don’t want their kids learning about prostitution and drugs. You know who hates GTA players the most though? Probably the developers since they’ve decided to delay the PC launch by another month!

When will GTA IV be released for the PC ?

World News

One of Berlin’s oldest airports, Tempelhof closed its doors last week, but they forgot something… To let the planes waiting to takeoff leave. So now 3 planes are awaiting further instructions. Hubdubbers forecast at least one plane is removed from Tempelhof not by flying itself.

What will happen to the Tempelhof planes?

The NFL

Now that the election’s coming to a close, football fans all over can return to watching their favorite teams compete, but it’s not always a team that’s the most important. One of the most popular Hubdub NFL markets regards the Manning brothers and who’ll be a better QB. For now by 51% Hubdub forecasts Eli gets a better rating this year.

NFL: Which Manning brother will have a better year?

The Tennessee Titans are kicking butt and taking names this football season, but how long will it last? For now they’re undefeated, but Hubdubbers predict the Chicago Bears will end the Titan winning streak by 37%.

NFL - Which opponent will be the first to defeat the Tennessee Titans in 2008?

The Economic Crisis

We all love gold, but as the economic crisis gathers strength what’s its knock on effect on the price of gold? For now Hubdub forecasts that this Friday the price will close between 725.10 and 750.00 USD. The margins are close though with only 27% of the market forecasting that price.

Where will the NY Spot Gold close on Friday, November 14, 2008?

The buzz word always seems to be ‘recession,’ but soon we won’t have to worry about that fact as Hubdub forecasts the US will be in a recession within 8 weeks. There’s an 86% chance that this happens and if that doesn’t worry you I don’t know what will.

Will the National Bureau of Economic Research announce in 2008 that the U.S. is in recession?

Popularity: 21% [?]

Hubdub Hot Predictions this week

Monday, October 27th, 2008

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Election 08

Can a African American win the south? Although Barack Obama isn’t likely to win the entire south, out of all the former ‘Confederate’ states Hubdub is forecasting Barack grabs 3 states. At least that’s 3 more than Kerry got!

How many of the former Confederate States will Obama win in the Presidential Election?

Day by day Florida is looking more and more like Obama country. On the 4th though, how well will Obama perform in the specific counties? Currently by a slight margin Hubdubbers predict Obama wins 12-18 counties.

‘08 Presidential Election - How many counties in Florida will Obama win?

Early reports from states all across the country are reporting that early voting lines are systemic. Massive voter turnout is happening everywhere and it isn’t even November 4th. When the dust settles Hubdub predicts 55% of voters will turnout, but with new reports piling in every day we may just breach the 60% ceiling.

What will the voter turnout be for the 2008 Presidential election?

The McCain, Palin ticket is looking a bit drained these days, with the election a week away will Palin attempt to grab more airtime by appearing on the David Letterman show? Hubdubbers say no by 71%

Will Sarah Palin be a guest on the Late Show With David Letterman before the Election?

World News

The Suisse like liberal thinking allot, but how liberal will they go? Currently a law’s being voted on to determine whether weed should be decriminalized, and for now Hubbdubber’s doubt it’ll be passed.

Will the Suisse people vote for or against the initiative to decriminalise cannabis consumption?

Who knew? Apparently Iran has a growing ostrich industry. To celebrate this new culinary investment they created a 1500 meters long ostrich sandwich, and subsequently gobbled it up! Still unclear if it’ll be in the Guinness book of world records though.

Will huge Iranian ostrich sandwich go into the Guiness Book of Records?

Science
With all the problems on Earth right now, it’s hard to remember there’s a whole other world above us. But it’s there, and on November 14th we’ll be visiting it once again. That is, if everything goes to plan. By 82% Hubdub users forecast Space Shuttle Endeavour launches on time.

Will STS-126 (Space Shuttle Endeavour) Launch on or Before Nov 15th 2008?

Sports

Almost every single time someone mentions Lance Armstrong we’re reminded of the numerous drug testing scandals he went through. Lance has always maintained his innocence and nothing’s ever been proven, but the French are at it again, insisting that Lance is a ‘villain.’ Overwhelmingly Hubdub forecasts Lance is not found to be a doper, again…

Will Lance be our Hero or the Villain after all?

Credit Crunch

Markets are down again today, so it seems we’re caught in an endless tumble towards world recession. Every time a shimmer of hope arises on the markets, it’s quickly wiped out. Therefore Hubdub predicts at least 36-40 more triple digit swings on the Dow this year and maybe even more. Don’t worry though there’s good news somewhere…

How many triple digit point swings will the DJIA have left in 2008?

Remember how I was saying there was good news out there? Well it’s the plunging price of gas. So if you can afford the ‘credit tsunami’ drowning Wall Street and don’t drive a tank to work your in alright shape. Here’s some even better news, Hubdub forecasts it’s 80% or more likely that gas falls below $2.50 this year.

Will gas prices drop below $2.50 before the end of the year?

Popularity: 22% [?]

Hot Predictions This Week from Hubdub.com

Monday, October 20th, 2008

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

2008 Election Over?

Some are saying it’s already over and packing their bags, but is it? McCain has many obstacles to surmount in the next week, but John has comeback from the dead before. Endorsements from party faithfuls like Colin Powell don’t help though. Currently Hubdub forecasts McCain has less than a 15% chance of winning.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Pundits are saying November 4th is shaping up to be a landslide win for Obama. This election could still get very, very tight though, and in the end it’s all about the electoral votes. For now Hubdub users disagree with pundits and predict a narrow election by just 45 Electoral Votes or less.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

North Carolina’s known for being a staunch GOP state. In the Dem. primaries Obama won the state, but for the summer McCain was in the lead by double digits. As the economy nears the edge of recession though it seems North Carolina may switch sides. Even now by over 60% Hubdub forecasts Obama grabs the state.

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Barack Obama has purchased 30 minutes of primetime TV on October 29th to address the nation. This will be Obama’s last chance to ’seal the deal.’ But how many people will be watching? Hubdub users think 50 million or more.

How many people will watch Barack Obama’s primetime address on 10/29?

Odd Stuff

Some might think Rock, Paper, Scissors is just a kids game but this stuff is hardcore! There’s even a World Championship in Toronto on the 25th. As to what will be the winning play rock, paper or scissors even Hubdub’s unsure just yet.

Rock Paper Scissors-What will be the winning final “throw” @ 2008 Int’l Championships?

Sports

It’s World Series time, and although the elections and economy might be getting the most attention, sports fans are going crazy. This year we have the Philadelphia Phillies facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays. By tight margins Hubdub users are forecasting a win by the Rays, but the Phillies aren’t pushovers. Good luck to both teams!

MLB World Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays - Series Outcome?

World News

Thailand’s in the midst of a political crisis right now. The first two prime ministers have gone rather quickly and now just a month into the job the thirds tenure is looking shaky. Hubdubbers predict the third prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is gone by November.

When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?

The Internet

Reddit is one of the most well known social media sites on the web, although we at Hubdub like to think we’re pretty popular too. In September Reddit brought in 3,300,327 unique visitors. Can they top that result by getting over 5 million unique hits before 2009? Less than 30% of Hubdubbers say yes.

Will Reddit.com reach 5 million Unique Visitors - Monthly in 2008?

Financial Meltdown

We’ve been through turbulent times these last weeks. The markets have gone up and up and then teetered off a cliff into a pack of ravenous wolves. Are we through the worst of it? Will we have anymore big swings in the Dow during October? Hubdub says don’t hold your breath it ain’t over yet!

How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?

Everyone likes to think that American money is American money. We’re in a interdependent world though, where one thing effects another. We’re also a country in tons of debt, who has all of our debt? Japan, but China’s catching up. By March 2009 Hubdubbers still forecast Japan holds the most American debt.

Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)

Popularity: 21% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions This Week

Monday, October 13th, 2008

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Credit Crunch

Two weeks ago we were predicting whether the DOW would drop below 10,000. Shortly thereafter the market dropped right through that mark. Now as the DOW just tries to stay afloat the question lingers, have we seen the worst of it? Sadly Hubdubbers doubt it’s over, forecasting the DOW will close below 7,000 in 2008.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2008?

We’ve all heard the rumors about a GM Chrysler merger but at first it didn’t seem possible. As the markets worsen though, this deal seems more and more plausible. Companies like GM are on the edge of an abyss, falling SUV sales and a failing economy are pushing this merger, but will it happen? For now 60% of Hubdubbers still think it won’t.

Will GM and Chrysler be announced to merge before December 15?

The markets are rebounding right now, after world leaders announced more plans to rebuild the broken financial markets. The start of this week looks good in comparison with the last two weeks where stunning losses were followed by only more stunning losses. As the weeks moves on though can they continue their rebound or will more bad news lead to more losses?

Will Dow (DJIA) close up the week Oct 13-17?

The Election Heats Up

Is John McCain your friend? If you’ve been watching him recite ‘My Friends’ this and ‘My friends’ that you’d think he’s the most popular person in the world. For Wednesdays debate look forward to more ‘My Friends’ this and ‘My friends’ that, as Hubdub forecasts McCain says ‘My friends’ more than 12 times. Phew, that was 5 ‘My friends’ right there!

3rd Presidential Debate Oct 15 — How many times will McCain address the audience as, “my friends”?

It seems the one person being helped by the financial crisis is Barack Obama. Since the DOW crash Obama’s lead in the polls has grown exponentially. If Obama does win, Hubdub users forecast there’s a 48% chance that he wins in a landslide, getting at least 2/3 of the electoral votes.

Will Barack Obama win a landslide victory (at least 2/3 of electoral college votes)?

World News

Can a country go bankrupt? The answer is yes if a government defaults. Following Iceland’s nationalization of its banks, some have alluded to the possibility of national bankruptcy. Fortunately Hubdub users give Iceland only a 25% chance of bankruptcy in the near future.

Will Iceland be officially bankrupt by the end of the year?

Canada’s not usually known for political violence. Although, recently some Liberal party supporters have awoken to find their car brake lines cut. The vandalism is being investigated by police. Although hubdubbers doubt anyone will be arrested, giving only a 21% chance of arrests being made.

Will any of the brake-line cutting vandals of Toronto Liberal supporters be arrested?

Sport

Instant replay has been around in the NFL for a long time, but just this season it’s been introduced into the MLB. With the biggest event coming up this month, Hubdub users are forecasting by 60% that instant replay will be used to determine or challenge a call in the World Series.

Will instant replay be used to determine or challenge a call in the 2008 World Series

Odd Stuff
There’s the Olympics and then there’s the the World Mind Games. For armchair generals the Beijing Mind Games offer an array of brain strengthening events in bridge, chess, draughts, Go and Xiangqi. It’s a chance for those who were never really  popular in high school to regain some self esteem. Home ground advantage seems to be proving true as Hubdubbers predict Asia tops the gold medal tally.

A country from which region will top the gold medal tally at the World Mind Games?

Entertainment

In one swoop Tina Fey saved Saturday Night Live from cancellation. As Sarah Palin Tina brought in swathes of new viewers. In the final days of the election rumors are abound of a joint Sarah Palin, Tina Fey SNL appearance, but will it happen? 75% of Hubdubbers forecast it will.

Will Tina Fey and Sarah Palin make a joint appearance on SNL prior to the November election?

Popularity: 16% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions This Week

Wednesday, October 1st, 2008

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Economic Crisis

Let’s be frank our economy isn’t doing that great. All financial indicators point to things getting worse before they get better.  The first attempt at passing a bailout bill left the financial markets in tailspin, but Congress gets another chance to make things right. Thankfully Hubdub forecasts there’s an 84% chance Congress will pass a bailout package by the end of October.

Will the US Congress pass a bailout package by the end of October

The financial crisis widens everyday, but how does that translate into cold numbers?  The highest Dow opening was 13,198.10 in 2007, since then the markets have dropped significantly. We’re now in sight of passing through the 10,000.00 mark on our slippery downwards slope. For now over 60% of users predict we won’t have to deal with the Dow closing below 10,000.00, but in this tough economic climate that forecast could change rapidly.

When will the Dow close below 10,000?

Some say we’re in recession, some say we ain’t. What might not be a technical recession though sure feels like one. A recession is measured on GDP values, and successive quarters of negative GDP growth equal a recession. We have four quarters in a year and so far our 3rd quarter is looking quite dismal with estimates of only 2.8% growth. Happily though Hubdubber’s don’t forecast negative growth in the third quarter.

hird querterWill the US economy have negative growth in the third quarter 2008?

Vice Presidential Debate - Palin and Biden duke it out

The Vice Presidential Debate is this week and although some might want to talk about important issues like energy security and health care, the majority of people are a bit more vane. The important issue for us Hubdubber’s is whether Palin wears a Skirt or Pants.

VP debate Oct 2: Will Sarah Palin wear a skirt or pants?

World News

The coast off Somalia has been host to brazen Pirate attacks in the past month. Recently though some pirates have gotten sick. Is the reason WMD’s? When the pirates commandeered an Iranian vessel they encountered more then they bargained for, and some died due to toxic chemicals stored on the ship. What those chemicals are though still remains a mystery?

Will it be determined that a Iranian ship overtaken by pirates contains chemical weapons?

Science

This years Nobel Prize in Medicine is shoring up to be quite interesting, over 190 names have been submitted for the prize, but where will the winner come from? Most Hubdub users predict North America’s got dibs, but the Europeans and Asians have contributed much to medical science in the past decade. Where will the winner come from?

To which world region will this year’s Nobel Prize in Medicine go?

MLB Playoffs

We’re nearing the world series now, but first we have to get through the tough stuff. First up we have the LA Angels facing the Boston Red Sox in the American League divisions series. Hubdubbers think the likely winner of the series will be the Angels. In the National League division series it’s the Milwaukee Brewers versus the Philadelphia Phillies. For that match up Hubdubbers are forecasting the Phillies win the series in 4 games by only 23%! This is gonna be close!

MLB - Who will win the AL divisional series between the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Angels?

MLB - Who will win the NL divisional series between Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies?

Odd Stuff

David Blane’s a nutter! There’s no getting around that simple point, but at least we get some enjoyment out of his crazy frolicking. Hubdubber’s currently think he’ll stage another wacky and some might say stupid stunt next year. The real question should be will he be alive to perform his next stunt?

Will David Blane stage another large scale stunt in the next year?

TV Shows

Some shows should just die! Prime example being the new Knight Rider. Let’s face it, it’s not great, it’s got bad actors and it’s a drama featuring a talking car. Need any more be said? Apparently not as over 50% of Hubdub users forecast that Knight Rider will get the axe before January 1st.

Fall TV Preview: How will NBC’s Knight Rider do this season?

Popularity: 16% [?]

Market forecasts and market manipulation

Thursday, September 25th, 2008

The Audacity of HopeImage via WikipediaAt Hubdub we like to compare or forecasts with prices from a wide range of prediction markets, bookmakers and betting exchanges. One challenge we have is that only a small subset of the 2,000 markets we have traded are also traded on other exchanges. The exchanges we tend to consult are:

Prediction markets: Intrade, NewsFutures, Inkling and Iowa Electronic Markets

UK bookmakers: Oddschecker

Betting exchanges: Betfair and BETDAQ

One market that is traded on all the exchanges is the future US president market. In general the prices in this market are fairly consistent between all the exchanges, with candidates forecasts generally within 3% of each other. However in the past 10 days we’ve noticed that while Barack Obama’s price surged with us and nearly all the other exchanges, it appeared to stick in the low 50’s with Intrade.

Between Intrade and Betfair (both real money markets) there existed a 10% difference in price which lasted for several days. This is highly unusual as normally traders arbitrage between markets bringing prices back in line. Yesterday, FiveThirtyEight published research to suggest that the Intrade markets were in fact being manipulated. As of this moment Intrade has a price of 57% for Obama compared with ~64% on Betfair (and most of the other exchanges).

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Popularity: 7% [?]

The new fall TV season is starting… and death is in the air!

Friday, September 5th, 2008

The new fall season is slowly getting underway with the CW’s second season of Gossip Girl and their 90210 remake debuting earlier this week. NBC will be premiering many of their shows early on Hulu, prior to their showing on regular broadcast TV later this month (this doesn’t change the fact that the vast majority of them are quite bad).

One of my least favorite aspects of the fall season is the high mortality rate of new shows. As soon as I get interested in a show, its gets cancelled (see Firefly, Journeyman and Moonlight). This year, I thought it might be smart to be proactive and figure out which shows are going to be cut first so I don’t waste my time with them.  I figured it was time to make the wisdom of the crowds work for me, so I asked my Hubdub friends what they thought of most of the new fall line up.  So far, of my early favorites, Fringe seems to be doing well while Ex-List is languishing in 2nd for most likely to be cancelled first (I will likely ignore my good advice and watch it anyway. I can’t pass up a good Romantic Comedy so even a mediocre one will likely be entertaining to me).

Fall TV Death Watch: Which of these shows will be cancelled first?

Check out your favorites and see which ones are keepers, which ones to let the DVR hold on to for a while and which ones you can safely ignore.

Popularity: 6% [?]