Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Happy New Year!

2008 has been a pretty good year, well besides the economy tanking and all that jazz. Even with the crap economy though people still have to celebrate, right? Their last big opportunity is going to be the New Year’s Eve celebrations all around the world. So who will have the biggest party? Hubdub forecasts New York City has a 42% chance.

Which location will have the biggest New Year’s Eve party?

Economy

If you google predictions on the economy for 09, you’ll be lucky to find one that isn’t forecasting financial Armageddon. In November the US lost over 500,000 jobs, for January 09 the outlook isn’t as bad but still pretty dismal with Hubdub predicting by over 60% that the US loses less than 500,00 jobs.

How many jobs will the USA shed in January 2009?

Politics
Some lucky criminals out there will get a very generous gift this new year. Clinton gave out 456 and although one Bush pardon has already been rescinded, Hubdubbers still think Bush will issue over 200 pardons before he exits.

How many pardons will George W. Bush issue before he leaves office?

World

In the Middle East bringing in the new year doesn’t seem to be one of the most festive celebrations. Over 300 have already been killed in the newest ’skirmish’ between Israel and Hamas, and it doesn’t look like the killing will stop just yet. A full on ground invasion hasn’t yet occurred but Hubdub forecasts one happening in the closing days of 2008.

Will Israel invade Gaza in 2008?

Sports

The Rose Bowl is coming! This new years day Penn State is pitched against USC in the Rose Bowl for what should be an epic game. The odds are getting closer as game day approaches but USC still has Hubdub’s backing with a 55% chance of winning the Rose Bowl.

Rose Bowl Game - Penn State vs USC - Who will win?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

* The Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week will be moving place next week to Hubdub’s recently opened newspundits blog, located here. Happy new year to everyone and see you there.

Popularity: 9% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out. This week we’re going with a ‘holiday’ theme and on that note happy holidays to all!

Politics

People have differing views of President Bush, but during the holiday season we can all unite Democrat, Republican or Independent in wishing him and his family a merry Christmas! Last year George got Laura a purse and a small silver tray for Christmas, what will it be this year?

What will George W. Bush give Laura Bush for Christmas?

Business

Bernard Madoff should expect some coal in his stockings this Christmas. He’s been a naughty boy and stealing is certainly frowned upon by Santa. So what will happen to him? Hubdub forecasts by over 60% that besides the coal Bernard will be found guilty of fraud.

WILL Bernard Madoff be found guilty of fraud?

Entertainment

The economy’s faltering and it’s kind of freezing, but at least you still have the cinema to go to. This Christmas weekend Hubdubbers predict by 70% Marley and Me will be the most watched film in cinemas.

What will be the #1 film over Christmas weekend (Dec 25th - Dec 28th)

Sports

It’s Christmas day and you want to open presents? You obviously don’t know about the NBA game going on. This Christmas the LA Lakers and Boston Celtics play to win. It currently looks like the Lakers have a slight edge, but there’s still three days.

Boston Celtics vs LA Lakers - NBA on Christmas Day, Who will win?

The Weather

Winter may have just begun but for the past few weeks it’s been snowing heavily all across the US. Chicago always seems to get snow and this Christmas Hubdub forecasts over a 50% chance of the city having a white Christmas.

Will there be a White Christmas this year in Chicago?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Popularity: 8% [?]

Although Heath Ledger has been receiving significant Oscar Buzz for well over a year, best picture speculation for the Dark Knight has been slightly more muted.  Major blockbusters rarely star at the Oscars, with notable exception #1 film Titanic, which won a record 11 Oscars including Best Picture — Dark Knight stands at #2 all-time in box office receipts with a chance for #1 after its re-release in January. 
Expert pundits have consistently placed Dark Knight ‘on the bubble’ for nomination, giving it a roughly 50/50 shot of being nominated, up from a lower (approximate 35% chance) earlier this year. What changed? Well a couple of things.. 1) Warner Brothers launched their “For Your Consideration” campaign which seemed to energize the DK Best Picture buzz and 2) Some of the other top contenders for the spot were underpreforming at the box office and with critics.
InTrade predictors have similarly been gradually edging up DK’s chances, from 30% to near 50% currently — closely in line with the expert panel predictions. But while the experts waited for these developments, predictors at Hubdub pushed initial predictions for a DK nomination to 70% immediately.  Why are Hubdub’s predictions so much higher? Two possible explanations: 1) They are overly-exuberant about a movie the majority of them loved 2) They are more correctly reading the buzz levels of this movie among Academy voters.  

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

January 22 will tell us whether InTrade’s cautious progression or Hubdub’s ebullient predictions were more accurate.

Popularity: 6% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Auto Bailout

America’s automotive producers have found themselves in a sticky situation these past weeks, and for the past months America’s banking giants haven’t been breezing along just fine either. With the possibility of a auto bailout looming, which failed giant will get better quicker, AIG or GM? Hubdub forecasts by over 55% it’s GM.

Which stock will rise the most in the month of December, AIG or GM?

The automotive industry kind of screwed up big time. Never fear though, the American taxpayers are happy to pick up the slack, or are they? This week the House is supposed to vote on a automotive industry bailout and by large enough margins Hubdub is predicting the bill will be passed with at least 218 to 290 votes.

Congress - How many “Yes” votes will be cast in the House for the Big 3 auto bailout?

Hubdub

There’s nothing like winning a Mashable Open Web Award to bring in the Holiday season! This year it seems Santa’s got his eyes on Hubdub. Mashable nominated an Open Web Award in Social News for Hubdub and we’re steam rolling through the competition. Currently Hubdub is trading above a 65% chance of winning the award, and for a Hubdubber those are damn good odds.

Who will win Mashable’s Open Web Award for Social News?

Sport

The Heisman Trophy is due to be awarded this Saturday. Sam Bradford a QB for Oklahoma seems to be the favourite. Hubdub gives him an over 65% chance of winning. That said ESPN may have shown some weakness to Sam’s main rival Colt McCoy who’s trading at 14%.

NCAAF - Who will win this year’s Heisman Trophy?

This Weekends Box Office

Can some tell me why all the evil disasters that befall Earth seem to always be centred around New York City? First you had Godzilla who made the move from Japan to New York in 1998 and now we have The Day The Earth Stood Still. No fear though Keanu Reeves should be able to clear this whole mess up and get tons of money in the process. How much money? Hubdub forecasts 40 to 50 Million on opening weekend.

US Box Office: How Much Will The Day The Earth Stood Still Make in its Opening Weekend?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.  

Popularity: 12% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

World News

The Mumbai terror attacks exacted a heavy toll on Indians and foreigners alike, but who was behind it? Initial intelligence is pointing to Pakistani ISI involvement and the terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taib. Could the terror attacks though be the work of elements from Al Qaeda? Hubdub predicts the chances of Al Qaeda involvement are above 40%.

Will the Nov 26 Mumbai terrorist attacks be connected to al Qaeda by the end of 2008?

Thailand’s been in a state of political upheaval for many months and arguably years. This political unrest though only now seems to be gaining worldwide attention. Protesters have seized Thailand’s main airports effectively shutting down Thailand’s main international artery. In the last day Hubdub forecasts have spiked. We now forecast by 65% that Thailand’s main international airport won’t be reopened by Sunday 7 December.

When will Thailand’s international airport be reopened?

Entertainment

Axl Rose from Guns N’ Roses is upset. So he’s doing what all rich rock stars do when they’re upset, making ridiculous demands. Due to a snafu in advertising he’s demanding Dr. Pepper take out a full-page apology in The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today and The Wall Street Journal. Likeliness that it will happen? 15%.

Will Dr Pepper apologize to Axl?

Sports

The South Eastern Conference championship kicks off this week, and it’s garnering allot of attention on Hubdub. There’s already H$22,492 on it! This year it’s the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. the Florida Gators, and Hubdub forecasts a win by the Gators, giving them a tight but healthy 54% chance.

SEC Championship Game - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators - Who will win?

General News

Often times you hear of stampedes happening in India or other less developed areas of the world. But if you thought for any second that human nature changes when living in a developed nation, you’d be wrong. Westerner’s are just as screwed up as everyone else. Evidenced by the shocking death of Jdimytai Damour a Wal-mart employee who was trampled to death by Long Island shoppers last week. Hubdub gives Jdimytai’s family a 80% chance of filing suit against Wal-mart.

Will the family of Jdimytai Damour file a lawsuit against Wall-Mart ?

Popularity: 17% [?]

On this day before Thanksgiving, I just wanted to pop by to thank all of our wonderful Hubdubbers for being such loyal and devoted fans, and for helping us develop and grow the site since we launched ten months ago. Thank you all for the feedback you’ve given us, the ideas you’ve offered us and the compliments you’ve paid us.

I also want to thank our Super Users and Category Editors for being, well just awesome - you always go above and beyond the call of duty and show tremendous committment to Hubdub.

I want to thank every one of you who truly believes in Hubdub, and have given us support and advice over the past year.

Without you, there would be no Hubdub.

I wish you all a very happy Thanksgiving.

Best wishes from Lesley

(P.S. Nigel, Tom, Rob and Chris say “Thanks! You’ve been great.” - none of that girlie mushy stuff)

Popularity: 3% [?]

Prediction markets typically focus on the usual who’ll win the race, and by how much. On Hubdub there are some interesting topics that are often hidden under the financial crisis and Obama’s transition. One of them is the crisis in Somalia. Whilst the markets on more obscure topics tend to be harder to get accurate reads on than purely US focused topics, Hubdub does have more users from Africa than from, say, Mexico, and the situation in Somalia is increasingly of international concern.

The market getting the most attention regards the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi oil supertanker off Somalia’s coast. With reports surfacing that Islamists plan to reclaim the ship in the name of Islam, over the last day the odds on the market have shifted. With almost H$30k at stake, it’s currently giving a 54% chance that the ransom will be paid and the crew released. Let’s hope the market is right, and force isn’t necessary.

What will be the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi supertanker Sirius Star?

Another fascinating market is asking who will sink the next ‘pirate ship’. The Indian Navy already sank a Somali pirate ship this month, but Hubdub’s currently predicting Russia is 23% likely to be the next “sinker”.

An Indian navy warship sank a Somalian pirate “ship.” Which country is going to sink another ?

To check out all of Hubdub’s current markets on Somalia go to our Somalia tag section.

Some other interesting Somalia forecasts:

Somalia likely to be most corrupt nation in 2009

Islamic insurgents 56% likely to take over control of Somalia

Popularity: 7% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

With all the ‘HubBub’ about Obama’s cabinet last week, most of the major picks have been named, but rumors run rampant regarding whether Obama will actually create new cabinet positions. Hubdub is forecasting with a 30% chance that 4 new positions will be created.

How many new cabinet positions will be created by Obama?

The new president is going to have to stay organized with the fate of the entire world on his shoulders. Too bad by 70% Hubdub forecasts Barack Obama won’t be able to keep his lovable blackberry organizer when he takes office. Guess he’ll use messenger pigeons or something so the terrorists don’t find out anything important.

WIll President Obama have to give up using his Blackberry once he takes office?

Financial Crisis

Looking at the Hubdub market on what the lowest close for the DJIA will be in 2008, there’s only one thing you can ascertain, we’re still headed for more disastrous days on the markets. Hubdub forecasts by 65% that the DJIA will close below 7,000 this year.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2008?

Thanksgiving Day Football

There’s nothing better than sitting down watching football on Thanksgiving. This 27th, one of the games to watch is the Tennessee Titans vs. the Detroit Lions. The Lions are almost assured defeat, but how bad will it be? Hubdub forecasts there’s a 30% chance it’s the Titans over the Lions by 15 to 28 points.

Will the Titans dine on Lions Thanksgiving Day 2008?

World News

Somalia is not the place for a Christmas vacation! It’s also not a good place to go boating, although if you want to be a modern pirate nowadays it’s the place to be… Joking aside in the continuing supertanker hijacking mess, Hubdub forecasts the ransom is paid, the ship & crew are released and the pirates get away.

What will be the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi supertanker Sirius Star?

Popularity: 13% [?]

Hubdub - the virtual bookie for time-wasting news junkies   (Sunday Nov 24th 2008)

Betting on the outcome of current affairs is the latest internet addiction.

Will President Obama be assassinated in the first year of his tenure? It’s a depressing thought but, as reported in last week’s Independent on Sunday, it’s a possibility too real to ignore. And over the past month $81,783 (£55,300) has been wagered on it. Not in the real world, or even in real money, but on a new prediction market website called Hubdub, which allows punters to bet on the outcomes of everyday news stories. More…

Innovative New Website Looking into the Future (Nov 25th 2008)

A website started by a Co Tyrone man is putting a new spin on the news by giving punters the chance to predict the outcome of big stories.  Cookstown native Nigel Eccles and his wife Lesley this month launched Hubdub.com, a website that gives news junkies an additional fix by letting them engage in stories rather than just reading about them.  More…

Have We Got News For You (Nov 13th 2008)

A FORMER Cookstown High School pupil has set up the first ever news forecasting website. If you thought Facebook or MySpace was addictive and time-comsuming, then be prepared to be sucked into the world of hubdub.com. The idea (www.hubdub.com) was the brainchild of Nigel Eccles, originally from the Stewartstown area, and his wife Lesley who are both keen followers of current affairs.  More…

News Junkies can Gamble on Headlines (Nov 12th 2008)

News junkies are being given the opportunity to bet on the outcome of breaking stories. Edinburgh-based company Hubdub already has more than 200,000 visits per month to its website since launching in the US earlier this year. The website, which has now gone live in the UK, gives users a pot of virtual money to place bets on the outcome of over 2000 running news stories. More...

Hubdub Tries Out Luck in UK (Nov 14th 2008)

News predictor site Hubdub launched in the UK this week as it attempts to replicate its US success. The site allows users to bet virtual dollars on the outcome of news stories by predicting the outcome. The Edinburgh company already has more than 200,000 unique users permonth on its American site with more than two million Hubdub dollars staked each day. More…

Hubdub Launches First UK Site (Nov 10th 2008)

News prediction site, Hubdub.com, launched in the UK today, following its fast growth in the US and partnerships with Reuters and the Independent. The site, which first launched in the US in February 2008, allows users to bet virtual money on the outcome of news stories - up to 2,000 at any one time.  More…

Popularity: 5% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

It may come as a surprise to many but arch rival of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton is the front runner for Secretary of State. After all that confrontation on the campaign trail, by over 55% Hubdubbers forecast Hillary will be named the new Secretary of State.

Will Hillary Clinton be Secretary of State?

Here’s some good news! Apparently there’s a stray nuclear bomb somewhere in the world. No one is quite sure where it is, although a Hubdubber said he sold it on Ebay awhile back… If you think you have it, check the serial number it’s 78252.

Has Anyone Seen the Stray H-Bomb?

Business

With the financial markets in crisis and the economic slowdown finally staring to effect everyone, the question children are asking is will I still get Christmas presents? Unfortunately for the kiddies Hubdub forecasts holiday retail sales will fall by more than 1% this year, meaning people will buy less presents.

Will U.S. holiday retail sales fall by 1 percent or less this year?

Sports

The Titans are still undefeated this season, and from our Hubdub forecast it seems the Jets will have less than a 40% chance of ending the Titan winning spree this week.

NFL - Which opponent will be the first to defeat the Tennessee Titans in 2008?

Entertainment

For those out there who don’t care about the missing nuclear bomb or important stuff like that you can always watch Dancing with the Stars. This week we’re forecasting who will win the prized mirror ball trophy. Brooke Burke seems is the front runner with Hubdub giving her a 60% chance of winning the award.

DWTS-Who will win the mirror ball trophy this year on Dancing with the Stars?

Popularity: 18% [?]