Karl Rove forecast 338 for ObamaNow all the US states bar Missouri have been called, the electoral votes vote tally is 364 to Obama and 173 to McCain. McCain is currently expected to take Missouri which would make Obama’s final tally 364 electoral college votes. (Check the New York Times’ excellent election map).

Using this electoral vote tally we can do a quick analysis of how accurate the various pollsters and prediction markets have been. The 3 Blue Dudes site has been tracking 84 different pollsters, pundits and prediction markets for the past few months. On the day before election day they took a snapshot of the current forecasts. 3 Blue Dudes recorded Hubdub as projecting exactly 364 electoral college votes for Obama!

The markets behind the Hubdub election map all closed prior to the polls closing. As you can see the 11 undecided moved into the McCain camp prior to the close.

How did the pollsters and pundits compare? Not so good. Only 7 of the 81 other pollsters and pundits predicted Obama winning 364 electoral votes.

Some of the major media sites, pollsters and pundits that didn’t do so well were:

New York Times: 291 to Obama (84 undecided)

CNN: 291 to Obama (90 undecided)

Washington Post: 319 to Obama

Zogby: 311 to Obama (51 undecided)

Karl Rove: 338 to Obama

All in all, a great night for Obama and a great night for Hubdub’s forecasts.

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Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

2008 Election Over?

Some are saying it’s already over and packing their bags, but is it? McCain has many obstacles to surmount in the next week, but John has comeback from the dead before. Endorsements from party faithfuls like Colin Powell don’t help though. Currently Hubdub forecasts McCain has less than a 15% chance of winning.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Pundits are saying November 4th is shaping up to be a landslide win for Obama. This election could still get very, very tight though, and in the end it’s all about the electoral votes. For now Hubdub users disagree with pundits and predict a narrow election by just 45 Electoral Votes or less.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

North Carolina’s known for being a staunch GOP state. In the Dem. primaries Obama won the state, but for the summer McCain was in the lead by double digits. As the economy nears the edge of recession though it seems North Carolina may switch sides. Even now by over 60% Hubdub forecasts Obama grabs the state.

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Barack Obama has purchased 30 minutes of primetime TV on October 29th to address the nation. This will be Obama’s last chance to ’seal the deal.’ But how many people will be watching? Hubdub users think 50 million or more.

How many people will watch Barack Obama’s primetime address on 10/29?

Odd Stuff

Some might think Rock, Paper, Scissors is just a kids game but this stuff is hardcore! There’s even a World Championship in Toronto on the 25th. As to what will be the winning play rock, paper or scissors even Hubdub’s unsure just yet.

Rock Paper Scissors-What will be the winning final “throw” @ 2008 Int’l Championships?

Sports

It’s World Series time, and although the elections and economy might be getting the most attention, sports fans are going crazy. This year we have the Philadelphia Phillies facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays. By tight margins Hubdub users are forecasting a win by the Rays, but the Phillies aren’t pushovers. Good luck to both teams!

MLB World Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays - Series Outcome?

World News

Thailand’s in the midst of a political crisis right now. The first two prime ministers have gone rather quickly and now just a month into the job the thirds tenure is looking shaky. Hubdubbers predict the third prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is gone by November.

When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?

The Internet

Reddit is one of the most well known social media sites on the web, although we at Hubdub like to think we’re pretty popular too. In September Reddit brought in 3,300,327 unique visitors. Can they top that result by getting over 5 million unique hits before 2009? Less than 30% of Hubdubbers say yes.

Will Reddit.com reach 5 million Unique Visitors - Monthly in 2008?

Financial Meltdown

We’ve been through turbulent times these last weeks. The markets have gone up and up and then teetered off a cliff into a pack of ravenous wolves. Are we through the worst of it? Will we have anymore big swings in the Dow during October? Hubdub says don’t hold your breath it ain’t over yet!

How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?

Everyone likes to think that American money is American money. We’re in a interdependent world though, where one thing effects another. We’re also a country in tons of debt, who has all of our debt? Japan, but China’s catching up. By March 2009 Hubdubbers still forecast Japan holds the most American debt.

Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)

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Perspctv is a new election dashboard that tracks the web for sentiment favoring Obama and McCain. All the data is pulled together into a very attractive dashboard that lets to explore current sentiment and trends. Previously they tracked polls, news mentions, blogosphere mentions, Twitter mentions, Electoral-vote.com, candidate website daily reach and Google search volume. All those metrics are fairly unanimous in favoring Obama with him getting around 85% of Twitter, News and Blogosphere mentions.

Today Perspctv has now also added Hubdub forecasts to their dashboard. Currently Hubdub is forecasting Obama to pick up 298 electoral votes which is ahead of the Electoral-vote.com projection of 275. Check it out and let me know what you think. (Perspctv works of an API to our election data. If you are a developer and would like to use that data then get in touch.)

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