At Hubdub we have many markets covering all the nuisances of the potential event. We have a market asking which bible verse his bible will be opened to:

Presidential Inauguration: What verse will Barack Obama’s Bible be open to?

We are also curious if Barack Obama will use his middle name while taking the oath of office, most Hubdubbers feel he will:

Will Barack Obama use his middle name when taking the oath of office?

One of my personal favorite markets is asking about the infamous “Yes We Can” line that began in New Hampshire, swept the country with the video by Will I AM, and was chanted at the acceptance speech on election night. Currently more than half of the Hubdubbers feel he won’t use the line at all, but I think he will, it fits his style, the American people want to be told that “Yes We Can”:

Presidential Inauguration: How many times will President Obama use the phrase “Yes We Can”?

For those of you who are going to be in the crowd during this day, we have a market right up your alley, the National Weather Service measures the temperature on Inaugural Day and we have a market asking what our Hubdubbers feel it will be, you better hope they got a good bead on this one, they are calling for a very comfortable 35degrees:

Presidential Inauguration: What will be the temperature at noon as recorded by NWS?

Another market more tuned into those of you who will be braving the weather, while the rest of us watch from the comfort of our homes or offices, is this market asking How Many Words Long will the Inauguration Speech be, again here at Hubdub we seem to feel that President Obama will carry on for more than 2250 words:

Presidential Inauguration: How many words long will President Obama’s address be?

and for those of you were were wondering here are the shortest and longest speeches - George Washington’s second address was the shortest (135 words) and William Henry Harrison delivered the longest (8,495 words).
And before we let you go, we would like to ask those in attendance to help us out if at all possible. If you see someone throw a donut at Rick Warren please notify the category editor right away so we may settle this market:

Will Mega Church leader Rick Warren have a donut thrown at him before or on Inauguration Day?

and finally if you see Tom Hanks at the Inauguration and you give him your seat, you will be helping settle a very fun but silly market:

Will Tom Hanks be given a seat at Barack Obama’s inauguration?

In a note of seriousness, please be safe, have a great time, and take alot of pictures. You may send all the pictures directly to me at destry@hubdub.com and I will share them on Picasa for everyone to see. Have a great time, enjoy your moment of history, and remember this “Now is the time to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can.”

Popularity: 14% [?]

A prediction market is a market where users trade on the outcomes of future events. One of the side benefits of the market is that it produces highly accurate forecasts that have been proven to be better than the polls.

Since the two party candidates were selected, Hubdub has had a market on who will be the eventual winner of the 2008 Presidential Election. Over the past couple of months we’ve noticed an interesting correlation between the McCain’s price (which is his % likelihood of being elected) and the S&P500:

As I write this the S&P 500 has dropped 42% from its historic high and is trading at 907.84. McCain’s likelihood of being the next president is currently trading at 14%. Voters have made it clear they have more faith in Obama in handling the economy and unless there is a dramatic and unprecedented economic improvement, November 4th will be the closing bell on McCain’s presidential ambitions.

Popularity: 9% [?]

Perspctv is a new election dashboard that tracks the web for sentiment favoring Obama and McCain. All the data is pulled together into a very attractive dashboard that lets to explore current sentiment and trends. Previously they tracked polls, news mentions, blogosphere mentions, Twitter mentions, Electoral-vote.com, candidate website daily reach and Google search volume. All those metrics are fairly unanimous in favoring Obama with him getting around 85% of Twitter, News and Blogosphere mentions.

Today Perspctv has now also added Hubdub forecasts to their dashboard. Currently Hubdub is forecasting Obama to pick up 298 electoral votes which is ahead of the Electoral-vote.com projection of 275. Check it out and let me know what you think. (Perspctv works of an API to our election data. If you are a developer and would like to use that data then get in touch.)

Popularity: 7% [?]

By Ryan (Politics Category Editor)

With the recent upsurge in violence in Iraq and the visible inability of the Iraqi Army to clamp down on Shia militias in Basra and Sadr City, Iraq is still a tense and brutal environment. The power to control the multi-faceted nation has not yet been resolved and the sectarian struggle for true representation is now hampered by more conflict within the religious and political factions vying for control.

But for Americans while the cost of the war grows, its impacts on the presidential campaign present a danger to the GOP, or do they? How has the Mahdi Army violence effected McCain? Well heres a surprise, it really hasn’t. McCain’s price hasn’t really changed since Maliki began his campaign in Basra on the 24^th, as evidenced by his price on Hubdub. Shown here:

So how has a upsurge in violence not decreased McCain’s price?

Some may say that the violence now ensuing southern Iraq and Sadr city is just between Iraqi’s. Therefore it lacks major US involvement on the ground. Unfortunately this analysis lacks the images of a smoke obscured Green Zone under mortar and rocket attack. Not to mention the deaths of US citizens within the Green Zone. It’s true that US involvement in the recently launched campaign against Shia militias is very limited, but the violence has been widely reported in the US media. So what gives? Why would a supporter of an unpopular war, from the party of an unpopular President be able to to stay so high in price?

How about the economy? With a slide into recession still front page news maybe McCain’s more conservative economic policies are holding sway with voters and overwriting opposition to the war, maybe, just maybe. Even if Iraq looks dreadful voters are overlooking that constant reality and worrying about their wallets. Keep in mind the ever wise theme “it’s the economy stupid!” Even if McCain’s conservative economic policies aren’t a hit with voters, the importance of the economy is still overshadowing Iraq. Voters can’t pay attention to a war in a far away country when their pocketbooks are in peril. The war has become so ingrained that the violence there is now an afterthought.

So is Iraq no longer a hinderer for the GOP? Certainly not! Even if McCain isn’t faltering due to the current violence in Iraq, the amount of bad feeling that the war has caused will stick with him throughout this election. The election was the Democrats to lose and increasingly in what was a surefire Democratic win the prospects are much more even. If the Democrats lose this election the November 5^th New York Times headline will read “Blown Opportunity!”

Heres to hoping this campaign was going to be short and sweet…..

Related Questions:

Who will win the Presidential election, Democrats or Republicans?

Who will be the next President of the US?

When will the US pull out of Iraq?

Will the cease-fire order between the Mahdi Army and Coalition and Iraqi forces be rescinded by May 31st 2008?

Popularity: 10% [?]