Poll Versus Market (the modern day Horse V Tractor)
Thursday, June 19th, 2008I’ve been talking to a lot of people over the past couple of days about the differences between polls and a market. Of course there is a rich set of academic research showing the superiority of a liquid market over a poll. Additionally, to me it makes intuitive sense: You would never try to price a stock by polling a 100 traders.
Anyway I thought I would do a quick fun comparison between a poll and a market. We are currently running a market on who will be the most followed on Twitter by the end of June.
Cast your votes here:
Place your bets here:
% chance over time
Leo Laporte
Kevin Rose
Jason Calacanis
Alex Albrecht
Robert Scoble
John C Dvorak
Let the competition commence!
Popularity: 12% [?]
