By Nigel

Hubdub has had a great start over the past 10 days however there have been a number of problems that users have identified that we need to address. Two of the biggest issues are (1) lack of clarity in questions (often resulting in them being voided) and (2) the existance of non-news or gaming questions. We are working on a number of things to try to fix both of these. One of these is to agree a set of rules and common understandings. This is a first draft for discussion. Please let me know what you think in the comments below or on the Get Satisfaction notice board.

Introduction

At Hubdub we don’t really like rules. Rules seem to be written by small minded people intent on stopping other people having fun. However, we’ve found that sometimes rules are helpful. If football (whichever flavour you play) didn’t have any rules then it would be a disaster. So think of these rules as like the rules of football, there to make life more fun.

Like the rules of football these rules will evolve, we can’t know what the gaps are in these rules until we hit the dispute that highlights them. When that dispute happens we will update these rules so that over time there should be fewer disputes.

 

General Rules – covering all categories

Subject to change

• These rules will change over time. In the event of a rule change the changes will be notified on the Hubdub Get Satisfaction notice board.

Site outages

• The website may, at any time, be temporarily unavailable for unscheduled technical reasons.
• In these circumstances, Hubdub will make best efforts to re-instate the site, however any losses suffered by users will not be re-credited.

Time and Time Zones

• All timings on the site are in PST (8 hours behind GMT, i.e. 12 noon PST is 8pm GMT)
• A week will begin at 12.00 midnight Sunday and close at 23.59 on Saturday
• If the question is on a prediction that happens in a particular locale it will be assumed that it refers to local time, unless otherwise specified. E.g. ‘Will it rain in Manchester, UK on Feb 5^th?’ would be resolved using local time (GMT). Best practise is for question creators to state the time zone in which the prediction occurs.
• Unless otherwise specified, if the question is with regards a general US news event then local time will considered to be PST.

Suspension

• While it will endeavour not to, Hubdub may suspend a question for any period at any time and for any duration.
• Under normal circumstances, i.e. where there is no dispute over an outcome, a question will only be suspended when it is about to be settled or when a sports event has started
• While a question is suspended, it will not be possible to place any new predictions or to cash-in any existing predictions on that question.
• A question will be suspended automatically when the Suspend date and time (as entered by the question creator) are reached.
• Hubdub administrators may amend the Suspend date and/or time if either has been entered incorrectly by the question creator or if circumstances change.
• In the event where no Suspend date or time has been entered, Hubdub administrators may enter them should they be deemed necessary.
• The Suspend date and time should not be used as a guide as to when the question will be settled. E.g. If the question is ‘Who will Edwards endorse?” and the suspend date is February 5^th then the question should not be interpreted as “Who will Edwards endorse by February 5^th?”

Types of question

• Questions should be about news stories that the creator expects a significant number of other users are interested in
• All questions should be settled from public news sources. Therefore the following types of question will not be accepted:
  • Questions which refer to activities that occur only on the Hubdub site e.g. ‘Will this question reach $400,000 in trades?’, ‘Who will be the top Hubdubber on Feb 28^th?’, ‘Will this question be voided?’ etc
  • Private questions which are only of interest to a small group of people, e.g. date of childbirth for a non-public figure

Settlement

• While Hubdub will make every effort to Settle a question within a reasonable time frame after the question has been suspended, in some circumstances there may a delay between suspension and settlement.
• When a question’s suspend time is after 2pm PST (10pm GMT), it may not be settled until the following day
• When a question’s suspend date falls at a weekend, it may not be settled until the following Monday
• Unless the settlement rules clearly state otherwise, Hubdub may settle questions before the suspend date if the outcome is clear and not subject to change.
• Where possible we like to settle questions early. If something is 99.9% certain then we will tend to settle it. Every one in a 1,000 times we get it wrong we will also pay-out on the correct outcome.
• When a question refers to the number of times a certain person says a certain phrase or word in a specific speech or debate, it may take a minimum of 24 hours after the event to settle the question

Disputes

• If there is a dispute over the settlement of a question, the dispute will be posted on Hubdub’s Get Satisfaction page for user feedback
• Based on the consensus reached by users, Hubdub will make a final decision on settlement
• Should there be no clear consensus on the outcome, Hubdub may void the question. If the question has already been settled, then voiding will result in the stakes on losing predictions being returned to users. However winning predictions will retain their winnings.

Voiding Questions

• Hubdub may void the question if
  • It’s a duplicate
  • It’s poorly worded, vague or ambiguous
  • It’s impossible to settle objectively
  • The initial likelihood values are not accurate
  • It does not have a wide following
  • A change of circumstances has occurred (see section below)
• When a question has been voided, the question creator will receive an automated email informing them that it has been voided. Hubdub Category Editors will endeavour to include a manual explanation if it is not clear.
• Users who have made a prediction on a question which has been voided will be able to see the voided question with an explanation for the voiding in their My Hubdub page
• Hubdub will void all predictions made after the outcome of a question becomes public knowledge (sorry no prizes for predicting what is already known)
• Hubdub does not vet every question and comment posted on the site. If a user has a complaint or an issue with a particular question or comment, it should be flagged by the user.
• For conditional questions, e.g. If John Edwards drops out, who will he endorse”, if the initial condition (e.g. ‘If John Edwards drops out’) is not met, the question will be voided

Changes of Circumstances

• If an event is cancelled or abandoned and the outcome is not clear, the question will be voided and all stakes returned to users.
• Any official changes to the outcome of a question after that question has been settled will be disregarded.
• If an event is postponed, the suspend date will be moved out accordingly
• An outcome may be listed against a question and due to a change of circumstances, that outcome is no longer actually possible, e.g. a date which has already past. In this event, the outcome will still be offered as an option and any users selecting that outcome will lose their stake on settlement

Creating Questions

• Question creators may not make a prediction on their created question until 12 hours after question creation
• An outcome of “Around X%” will only be acceptable if the creator specifies what they mean by ‘around’. In general it is better to specify a range, e.g. 0-5%.
• Hubdub may unilaterally amend created questions, e.g. to correct typos, settlement information and outcome ranges however we will not amend the meaning of a question that has already had predictions placed on it.
• From time to time, Hubdub may also unilaterally amend obvious typos that would change the meaning of the question had they been interpreted literally. E.g. ‘Will Yahoo be bought in 1008?’ would be amended to the creator’s intended question ‘Will Yahoo be bought in 2008’
• Any offensive questions or comments will be voided or deleted. Users posting such comments/questions will be given a warning and their usage of the site will be monitored. Should they continue to post offensive or unacceptable comments/ questions, they will be banned from using the site

Category Specific Rules

Entertainment Category

US Movie Box Office

• The question will be settled using data compiled and published by Nielson EDI for that period.
• General release is defined as having been released in at least 650 theatres domestically (USA & Canada).
• For questions regarding opening weekend box office takings, questions will be suspended at 5pm on the Friday
• “Opening weekend” will run from Friday to Sunday
• If the opening weekend for a specified movie falls on a holiday weekend the outcomes for a question regarding opening weekend will be calculated using this extended weekend unless otherwise stated.

TV Shows

• Settlement will be based on the final outcome of the Show as televised (either as live or recorded) on the official associated television network.
• The means by which a winner is determined will vary between shows so Hubdub will settle questions based on the official rules of the specific show
• If necessary, Hubdub may determine a winner for expiration purposes using the Dispute process (see above)
• Should the rules or the nature or timing of the contest change significantly, Hubdub may immediately amend these rules accordingly.
• In the event of two or more individuals/teams being awarded the title or are declared joint winners of the show, if there is no outcome for this listed in the question, then the question will be declared void
• If a contestant is disqualified for any reason before the outcome is settled, then predictions on them will be settled as losing predictions
• Official changes to the outcome made before the question is settled will stand.
• If a winner is disqualified after the question has been settled, that disqualification will be disregarded.

Awards

• The question will be settled based on the winner of the award as officially declared by the specific Award Board in question.
• For disqualification, see TV Shows above.

General Category

Weather

• All temperatures, unless otherwise stated in the question details will be taken to be the common scale for the region or country in which the weather occurred. For the avoidance of doubt that means Celsius in Europe (including the UK) and Fahrenheit in the US. If the region or country has no commonly agreed scale then Fahrenheit will be used.
• Temperatures, unless otherwise stated in the question details, do not include wind chill factor
• Questions regarding the weather for a specific area must be clearly defined and listed in NOAA (http://www.noaa.gov/wx.html) or in the equivalent organisation in countries outside the USA
• Snowfall will be measured in inches unless otherwise stated in the question details
• Snowfall does not include snow drifts
• Best practise on creating weather questions is to link directly to the settlement source in the settlement details

Sports Category

• If the question concerns whether a certain player will play in a particular game, the question can be settled when the team/squad is announced
• In general sports questions will be suspended prior to the start of the game in question. Any predictions made on a question accidentially left open during a game will be voided on settlement
• Questions on sports events should not include postponement as an outcome. In the event of postponement the question will stand but the suspend time will be extended
• Hubdub may select which questions will be suitable for in-running during a sporting event and will amend the suspend time appropriately. In this event, users will be notified which questions are in-running via the Get Satisfaction notice board.

Politics Category

• Unless otherwise stated a state primary/caucus/convention is decided based on delegates (not super delegates). A question will only be settled by the popular vote if that is explicitly stated in the question.
• In the event that a state primary/caucus/convention question results in a tie between candidates then the question will be settled as the winner of the popular vote.

Business Category

• For questions with regards takeovers an ‘offer’ is defined as public or private offer to buy the target company. Offers of assistance do not count.
• Questions can be made about the major indexes but should not be made about the performance of individual stocks

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