Image via WikipediaAt Hubdub we like to compare or forecasts with prices from a wide range of prediction markets, bookmakers and betting exchanges. One challenge we have is that only a small subset of the 2,000 markets we have traded are also traded on other exchanges. The exchanges we tend to consult are:

Prediction markets: Intrade, NewsFutures, Inkling and Iowa Electronic Markets

UK bookmakers: Oddschecker

Betting exchanges: Betfair and BETDAQ

One market that is traded on all the exchanges is the future US president market. In general the prices in this market are fairly consistent between all the exchanges, with candidates forecasts generally within 3% of each other. However in the past 10 days we’ve noticed that while Barack Obama’s price surged with us and nearly all the other exchanges, it appeared to stick in the low 50’s with Intrade.

Between Intrade and Betfair (both real money markets) there existed a 10% difference in price which lasted for several days. This is highly unusual as normally traders arbitrage between markets bringing prices back in line. Yesterday, FiveThirtyEight published research to suggest that the Intrade markets were in fact being manipulated. As of this moment Intrade has a price of 57% for Obama compared with ~64% on Betfair (and most of the other exchanges).

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Over the past couple of weeks I have been speaking to lots of members of the Hubdub community. One thing that has come into the conversation a number of times is what is the vision for Hubdub? Where do we see ourselves in 5 years time? While history loves stories about the flash of inspiration or the single event that sparked an idea, in general I believe the process of innovation is much more messy than that. Hubdub was no different. Part of the idea goes back to my university days when I developed a fascination for game theory and gambling (pure and applied!). Then in 2000 I joined a start-up called flutter.com. Flutter’s original vision was to enable people to make person-to-person bets on anything that interested them. There were a number of problems with that vision, which I blogged about here, but we quickly changed course and were ultimately successfully acquired by Betfair. For those of you who aren’t familiar with Betfair, it is a betting exchange, like an eBay for sports betting.

While Betfair has been highly successful, there were two parts of their service that I was always surprised that they never developed in 7 years since I left. The first part was that they have one of the most active forums on the internet with people discussing everything from sports to celebrities to everything in between. However the forums have always been kept at arms length from the main betting exchange. The second part is that behind all these markets is an amazing set of data that clearly shows how news events like the US elections have evolved. Over the past 7 years I have used Betfair prices to follow news stories like that (and also who is next to get kicked out of Big Brother!). Unfortunately, unless you can read digital odds and you can navigate their interface you won’t be able to get the same benefit.

The second last element behind the Hubdub concept was an exceptionally bad stock portfolio I had from 2005 to 2007. I had spent weeks and months of my free time working out PE ratios, momentum, free cash flow, debt ratios etc. I even bought a couple of Domino pizzas to check if their product was up to scratch (the pizzas were good but I passed on the stock). However, despite all my work my portfolio starting dropping from day one. Owning Sportingbet shares when the US passed the Unlawful Internet Gaming Act didn’t help much either. However the thing that I discovered was (a) how frequently I checked my portfolio (er, every other minute when things were quiet) and (b) that all the information I wanted to know was boiled into the price. Only if was there a significant price movement did I dig into see if there was a significant news event. This made me realize that if I could place bets on future events and news stories I was interested in then I could let the system ping me when something significant had happened (however I would probably still want to check my portfolio every 15 minutes!)

The last thing that pushed me over the edge to starting Hubdub was working in the news industry I had found that newspapers on-line had been really successful at reaching out to millions of readers. However while they could reach millions of readers those readers weren’t hanging around for very long. For example the Guardian is one of the biggest UK on-line newspaper sites with around 20 million monthly unique visitors. However each of those visitors only views about 11 pages on average per month. That made me realize that if we could build something which combined the reach of news with the engagement and excitement of a betting exchange then that would be really something. Thus Hubdub the idea was born on July 23rd, 2007, exactly one year today.

*A lot* has happened in that past year with the help of a fantastic team who have taken an idea and made it their own. In many ways Hubdub looks nothing like the mock-ups we threw together last summer. Some things we tried never really panned out the way we expected (did anyone ever vote a news story up or down?!) but the great thing is that the idea core to the concept, that people would find the idea of trading predictions around news stories and future events highly addictive. Even more exciting is that many of our original ideas we still haven’t had the chance to try out.

All that is just the pre-amble to let me put off trying to describe what my vision is for Hubdub in 5 years time. The Hubdub concept has evolved over the past 12 months as it has gone from one person owning it to thousands of people owning it. That makes it tough to lay out a vision so here is my best shot:

In 5 years time, Hubdub is the market platform for any and all future events of public interest; where millions of users actively trade tens of thousands of stories and future events. Streaming out of those public markets is data on:
- Forecast probabilities of the likelihood of future events
- Peoples’ individual views of the future, which they share and discuss with friends
- Peoples’ reputations for accurately analyzing and forecasting future events
- A filter of news stories that have a significant impact on peoples’ outlook on the future (that is, only newsworthy stories)
Hubdub would be the exchange for this activity with both predictions flowing in and data flowing out via partner sites, distributed functionality and third party apps. Quoting Hubdub forecasts in news stories about future events will be as common as quoting stock prices in financial stories is today or (in the UK) quoting betting odds for political elections.

Tim O’Reilly recently wrote about the success of web 2.0 applications but asked question “But what good is collective intelligence if it doesn’t make us smarter?”. I truly believe that achieving the above goal would go a long way in answering that question. I would love to know your thoughts.

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