At Hubdub we have many markets covering all the nuisances of the potential event. We have a market asking which bible verse his bible will be opened to:

Presidential Inauguration: What verse will Barack Obama’s Bible be open to?

We are also curious if Barack Obama will use his middle name while taking the oath of office, most Hubdubbers feel he will:

Will Barack Obama use his middle name when taking the oath of office?

One of my personal favorite markets is asking about the infamous “Yes We Can” line that began in New Hampshire, swept the country with the video by Will I AM, and was chanted at the acceptance speech on election night. Currently more than half of the Hubdubbers feel he won’t use the line at all, but I think he will, it fits his style, the American people want to be told that “Yes We Can”:

Presidential Inauguration: How many times will President Obama use the phrase “Yes We Can”?

For those of you who are going to be in the crowd during this day, we have a market right up your alley, the National Weather Service measures the temperature on Inaugural Day and we have a market asking what our Hubdubbers feel it will be, you better hope they got a good bead on this one, they are calling for a very comfortable 35degrees:

Presidential Inauguration: What will be the temperature at noon as recorded by NWS?

Another market more tuned into those of you who will be braving the weather, while the rest of us watch from the comfort of our homes or offices, is this market asking How Many Words Long will the Inauguration Speech be, again here at Hubdub we seem to feel that President Obama will carry on for more than 2250 words:

Presidential Inauguration: How many words long will President Obama’s address be?

and for those of you were were wondering here are the shortest and longest speeches - George Washington’s second address was the shortest (135 words) and William Henry Harrison delivered the longest (8,495 words).
And before we let you go, we would like to ask those in attendance to help us out if at all possible. If you see someone throw a donut at Rick Warren please notify the category editor right away so we may settle this market:

Will Mega Church leader Rick Warren have a donut thrown at him before or on Inauguration Day?

and finally if you see Tom Hanks at the Inauguration and you give him your seat, you will be helping settle a very fun but silly market:

Will Tom Hanks be given a seat at Barack Obama’s inauguration?

In a note of seriousness, please be safe, have a great time, and take alot of pictures. You may send all the pictures directly to me at destry@hubdub.com and I will share them on Picasa for everyone to see. Have a great time, enjoy your moment of history, and remember this “Now is the time to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can.”

Popularity: 14% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Happy New Year!

2008 has been a pretty good year, well besides the economy tanking and all that jazz. Even with the crap economy though people still have to celebrate, right? Their last big opportunity is going to be the New Year’s Eve celebrations all around the world. So who will have the biggest party? Hubdub forecasts New York City has a 42% chance.

Which location will have the biggest New Year’s Eve party?

Economy

If you google predictions on the economy for 09, you’ll be lucky to find one that isn’t forecasting financial Armageddon. In November the US lost over 500,000 jobs, for January 09 the outlook isn’t as bad but still pretty dismal with Hubdub predicting by over 60% that the US loses less than 500,00 jobs.

How many jobs will the USA shed in January 2009?

Politics
Some lucky criminals out there will get a very generous gift this new year. Clinton gave out 456 and although one Bush pardon has already been rescinded, Hubdubbers still think Bush will issue over 200 pardons before he exits.

How many pardons will George W. Bush issue before he leaves office?

World

In the Middle East bringing in the new year doesn’t seem to be one of the most festive celebrations. Over 300 have already been killed in the newest ’skirmish’ between Israel and Hamas, and it doesn’t look like the killing will stop just yet. A full on ground invasion hasn’t yet occurred but Hubdub forecasts one happening in the closing days of 2008.

Will Israel invade Gaza in 2008?

Sports

The Rose Bowl is coming! This new years day Penn State is pitched against USC in the Rose Bowl for what should be an epic game. The odds are getting closer as game day approaches but USC still has Hubdub’s backing with a 55% chance of winning the Rose Bowl.

Rose Bowl Game - Penn State vs USC - Who will win?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

* The Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week will be moving place next week to Hubdub’s recently opened newspundits blog, located here. Happy new year to everyone and see you there.

Popularity: 9% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Blagojevich Problem

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich got himself into a little trouble last week after trying to sell Barack Obama’s Senate seat. Almost everyone is calling for Blagojevich’s head on a plate, but the defiant and quite corrupt Governor is standing his ground. Hubdub gives Blagojevich resigning a over 70% chance, we also forecast resignation by December 21st.

Will Gov. Rod Blagojevich resign?

Rod Blagojevich missed his shot at naming Obama’s Senate successor. So who or what will decide who’s filling Obama’s vacant seat? By 49% Hubdub forecasts Illinois will call a special election.

Who will name Obama’s replacement?

Business

The big three Detroit auto makers failed to get a bailout fund from the Congress last week, but what should happen to those who were at the reins of the big three? General Motors CEO Richard Wagoner, seems the first likely target, especially when Congress is suggesting he get the boot. According to Hubdub though Wagoner only has a 31% chance of removal.

Will GM CEO Richard Wagoner step down or be fired before the end of 2008?

The Box Office

Kenau Reeves did quite good in the box office last weekend. Although this weekend three new movies premier, including Will Smith’s drama, Seven Pounds. For now Hubdub thinks Seven Pounds will be in the top spot this weekend, with Jim Carrey’s Yes Man only having a 33% chance of raking in the most cash.

What will be the #1 film this weekend?

The NFL

On December 21st the Panthers play the Giants. As the season ends both teams are hoping for a good showing. With home field advantage the Giants are the current favorites. What’s better is this market, dubbed ‘IN PLAY’ won’t be suspended during most of the game, so users can forecast who’ll win while the games on!

NFL - (IN PLAY) - Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants. Who will win on Dec 21st?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Popularity: 11% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

With all the ‘HubBub’ about Obama’s cabinet last week, most of the major picks have been named, but rumors run rampant regarding whether Obama will actually create new cabinet positions. Hubdub is forecasting with a 30% chance that 4 new positions will be created.

How many new cabinet positions will be created by Obama?

The new president is going to have to stay organized with the fate of the entire world on his shoulders. Too bad by 70% Hubdub forecasts Barack Obama won’t be able to keep his lovable blackberry organizer when he takes office. Guess he’ll use messenger pigeons or something so the terrorists don’t find out anything important.

WIll President Obama have to give up using his Blackberry once he takes office?

Financial Crisis

Looking at the Hubdub market on what the lowest close for the DJIA will be in 2008, there’s only one thing you can ascertain, we’re still headed for more disastrous days on the markets. Hubdub forecasts by 65% that the DJIA will close below 7,000 this year.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2008?

Thanksgiving Day Football

There’s nothing better than sitting down watching football on Thanksgiving. This 27th, one of the games to watch is the Tennessee Titans vs. the Detroit Lions. The Lions are almost assured defeat, but how bad will it be? Hubdub forecasts there’s a 30% chance it’s the Titans over the Lions by 15 to 28 points.

Will the Titans dine on Lions Thanksgiving Day 2008?

World News

Somalia is not the place for a Christmas vacation! It’s also not a good place to go boating, although if you want to be a modern pirate nowadays it’s the place to be… Joking aside in the continuing supertanker hijacking mess, Hubdub forecasts the ransom is paid, the ship & crew are released and the pirates get away.

What will be the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi supertanker Sirius Star?

Popularity: 13% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Politics

It may come as a surprise to many but arch rival of Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton is the front runner for Secretary of State. After all that confrontation on the campaign trail, by over 55% Hubdubbers forecast Hillary will be named the new Secretary of State.

Will Hillary Clinton be Secretary of State?

Here’s some good news! Apparently there’s a stray nuclear bomb somewhere in the world. No one is quite sure where it is, although a Hubdubber said he sold it on Ebay awhile back… If you think you have it, check the serial number it’s 78252.

Has Anyone Seen the Stray H-Bomb?

Business

With the financial markets in crisis and the economic slowdown finally staring to effect everyone, the question children are asking is will I still get Christmas presents? Unfortunately for the kiddies Hubdub forecasts holiday retail sales will fall by more than 1% this year, meaning people will buy less presents.

Will U.S. holiday retail sales fall by 1 percent or less this year?

Sports

The Titans are still undefeated this season, and from our Hubdub forecast it seems the Jets will have less than a 40% chance of ending the Titan winning spree this week.

NFL - Which opponent will be the first to defeat the Tennessee Titans in 2008?

Entertainment

For those out there who don’t care about the missing nuclear bomb or important stuff like that you can always watch Dancing with the Stars. This week we’re forecasting who will win the prized mirror ball trophy. Brooke Burke seems is the front runner with Hubdub giving her a 60% chance of winning the award.

DWTS-Who will win the mirror ball trophy this year on Dancing with the Stars?

Popularity: 18% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Obama’s Cabinet

If Obama’s planning on changing how the world views Washington then besides himself his most important pick will be Secretary of State. Allot of buzz has surrounded John Kerry in the past week but for now he only has a 19% chance of being chosen.

Who will be Obama’s Secretary of State?

Obama has become a symbol to many of American bi-partisanship, but how bi-partisan is he really? A good indicator will likely be how many Republicans he has in his cabinet. For now it seems of the over 12 Cabinet positions, only 2 or 3 are forecast to be Republicans.

How many Republicans will be in President Obama’s cabinet?

One of those 2 or 3 Republicans in Obama’s cabinet is likely to be the Secretary of Defense. Right now Robert Gates the current Secretary of Defense by over 60% is predicted to be selected to carry on his position under Obama.

Who will be President Obama’s Secretary of Defense?

Business

The dropping price in oil is about the only good news for most Americans… but will OPEC allow oil to remain at these low prices, or will they take measures to reduce output and get the price back up?  Maybe not over $100, but perhaps solidly back into the $80-90 range? Right now the answer seems to be an unfortunate yes.

Will OPEC decide to lower its production quota at its Nov 18 meeting?

With the latest unemployment figures released, the possibility of reaching 7% has to be considered. Layoffs and job cuts are continuing to be announced and as the economy worsens, there may be a chance of seeing still higher numbers in the next few months. Sadly Hubdubbers forecast by 70% that we hit 7% before 2009.

Will the US unemployement rate exceed 7% at any point in 2009?

Sports

Will the Cowboys make the playoffs? There’s no simple answer to that question, but for now it looks good, with Hubdub forecasting by 59% that the Cowboys make it into the playoffs.

NFL - Will the Dallas Cowboys make the Playoffs?

Science

The Universe is really big and really wide and it has allot things in it, oddly enough though we still don’t know what it’s actually made of. Never fear though the scientists are on it! Unfortunately they’re not on it enough as Hubdub forecasts we still won’t know what the Universe is made of in 2009.

Will scientists discover what the Universe is made of in 2009?

World News

Not everyone hates the EU, but it’s not like the EU knows how to make friends. Take for example regulations on the permitted sizes, lengths and ‘bendiness’ for farm produce. I mean seriously, who cares! Fortunately by 77% Hubdub forecasts the EU hears the logic of reason and scraps this silly regulation.

Will the EU lift the ban on “strangely shaped” fruits and vegetables?

Entertainment

Everyone loves Harry Potter, maybe a bit too much in some cases… But in terms of the first Harry Potter movie which raked in 90 million in its opening weekend, how will the new fantasy challenger Twilight, by Stephanie Meyer’s compare? Hubdubbers forecast there’s a 62% chance Twilight only rakes in a measly 22.5 million to 45 million in its opening weekend.

Mythological Matchup: Vampires vs Wizards, who is the victor?

Could you see Oprah as a politician…? Thankfully it seems we have consensus on this question, with Hubdub giving Oprah only a 15% chance of being called upon to be a US ambassador!

Will President Obama offer a position of US Ambassador to Oprah Winfrey ?

Popularity: 7% [?]

Karl Rove forecast 338 for ObamaNow all the US states bar Missouri have been called, the electoral votes vote tally is 364 to Obama and 173 to McCain. McCain is currently expected to take Missouri which would make Obama’s final tally 364 electoral college votes. (Check the New York Times’ excellent election map).

Using this electoral vote tally we can do a quick analysis of how accurate the various pollsters and prediction markets have been. The 3 Blue Dudes site has been tracking 84 different pollsters, pundits and prediction markets for the past few months. On the day before election day they took a snapshot of the current forecasts. 3 Blue Dudes recorded Hubdub as projecting exactly 364 electoral college votes for Obama!

The markets behind the Hubdub election map all closed prior to the polls closing. As you can see the 11 undecided moved into the McCain camp prior to the close.

How did the pollsters and pundits compare? Not so good. Only 7 of the 81 other pollsters and pundits predicted Obama winning 364 electoral votes.

Some of the major media sites, pollsters and pundits that didn’t do so well were:

New York Times: 291 to Obama (84 undecided)

CNN: 291 to Obama (90 undecided)

Washington Post: 319 to Obama

Zogby: 311 to Obama (51 undecided)

Karl Rove: 338 to Obama

All in all, a great night for Obama and a great night for Hubdub’s forecasts.

Popularity: 6% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

 2008 Presidential Election

With a day to go Hubdub users forecast there’s a 90% chance that Barack Obama is elected. In the last few days the price on Obama has jumped 10% as it becomes clearer and clearer that for the GOP 2008 is shaping up to be a electoral washout.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

When I say Hubdubber’s are forecasting an electoral washout I have the market data to prove it! Currently Hubdub predicts that the electoral vote margin between McCain and Obama will at least be over 119 votes.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

Sometimes you need a break from all the political double talk you get from Obama and McCain. So why not try listening to ‘Joe the Plumbers’ rumored country album? Unfortunately it’s doubtful you’ll get the chance, as Hubdub forecasts there’s a 10% chance an album gets released before Inauguration Day.

Will Joe The Plumber release a country album by Inauguration Day?

Entertainment

One of the most memorable characters this year has been the Joker from the Dark Knight. With Ledger’s work winning praise from all since his passing, will he be honored by the Dark Knight being nominated? By 55% Hubdub predicts yes!

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

Gaming

Everyone likes Grand Theft Auto besides uptight parents who don’t want their kids learning about prostitution and drugs. You know who hates GTA players the most though? Probably the developers since they’ve decided to delay the PC launch by another month!

When will GTA IV be released for the PC ?

World News

One of Berlin’s oldest airports, Tempelhof closed its doors last week, but they forgot something… To let the planes waiting to takeoff leave. So now 3 planes are awaiting further instructions. Hubdubbers forecast at least one plane is removed from Tempelhof not by flying itself.

What will happen to the Tempelhof planes?

The NFL

Now that the election’s coming to a close, football fans all over can return to watching their favorite teams compete, but it’s not always a team that’s the most important. One of the most popular Hubdub NFL markets regards the Manning brothers and who’ll be a better QB. For now by 51% Hubdub forecasts Eli gets a better rating this year.

NFL: Which Manning brother will have a better year?

The Tennessee Titans are kicking butt and taking names this football season, but how long will it last? For now they’re undefeated, but Hubdubbers predict the Chicago Bears will end the Titan winning streak by 37%.

NFL - Which opponent will be the first to defeat the Tennessee Titans in 2008?

The Economic Crisis

We all love gold, but as the economic crisis gathers strength what’s its knock on effect on the price of gold? For now Hubdub forecasts that this Friday the price will close between 725.10 and 750.00 USD. The margins are close though with only 27% of the market forecasting that price.

Where will the NY Spot Gold close on Friday, November 14, 2008?

The buzz word always seems to be ‘recession,’ but soon we won’t have to worry about that fact as Hubdub forecasts the US will be in a recession within 8 weeks. There’s an 86% chance that this happens and if that doesn’t worry you I don’t know what will.

Will the National Bureau of Economic Research announce in 2008 that the U.S. is in recession?

Popularity: 21% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Election 08

Can a African American win the south? Although Barack Obama isn’t likely to win the entire south, out of all the former ‘Confederate’ states Hubdub is forecasting Barack grabs 3 states. At least that’s 3 more than Kerry got!

How many of the former Confederate States will Obama win in the Presidential Election?

Day by day Florida is looking more and more like Obama country. On the 4th though, how well will Obama perform in the specific counties? Currently by a slight margin Hubdubbers predict Obama wins 12-18 counties.

‘08 Presidential Election - How many counties in Florida will Obama win?

Early reports from states all across the country are reporting that early voting lines are systemic. Massive voter turnout is happening everywhere and it isn’t even November 4th. When the dust settles Hubdub predicts 55% of voters will turnout, but with new reports piling in every day we may just breach the 60% ceiling.

What will the voter turnout be for the 2008 Presidential election?

The McCain, Palin ticket is looking a bit drained these days, with the election a week away will Palin attempt to grab more airtime by appearing on the David Letterman show? Hubdubbers say no by 71%

Will Sarah Palin be a guest on the Late Show With David Letterman before the Election?

World News

The Suisse like liberal thinking allot, but how liberal will they go? Currently a law’s being voted on to determine whether weed should be decriminalized, and for now Hubbdubber’s doubt it’ll be passed.

Will the Suisse people vote for or against the initiative to decriminalise cannabis consumption?

Who knew? Apparently Iran has a growing ostrich industry. To celebrate this new culinary investment they created a 1500 meters long ostrich sandwich, and subsequently gobbled it up! Still unclear if it’ll be in the Guinness book of world records though.

Will huge Iranian ostrich sandwich go into the Guiness Book of Records?

Science
With all the problems on Earth right now, it’s hard to remember there’s a whole other world above us. But it’s there, and on November 14th we’ll be visiting it once again. That is, if everything goes to plan. By 82% Hubdub users forecast Space Shuttle Endeavour launches on time.

Will STS-126 (Space Shuttle Endeavour) Launch on or Before Nov 15th 2008?

Sports

Almost every single time someone mentions Lance Armstrong we’re reminded of the numerous drug testing scandals he went through. Lance has always maintained his innocence and nothing’s ever been proven, but the French are at it again, insisting that Lance is a ‘villain.’ Overwhelmingly Hubdub forecasts Lance is not found to be a doper, again…

Will Lance be our Hero or the Villain after all?

Credit Crunch

Markets are down again today, so it seems we’re caught in an endless tumble towards world recession. Every time a shimmer of hope arises on the markets, it’s quickly wiped out. Therefore Hubdub predicts at least 36-40 more triple digit swings on the Dow this year and maybe even more. Don’t worry though there’s good news somewhere…

How many triple digit point swings will the DJIA have left in 2008?

Remember how I was saying there was good news out there? Well it’s the plunging price of gas. So if you can afford the ‘credit tsunami’ drowning Wall Street and don’t drive a tank to work your in alright shape. Here’s some even better news, Hubdub forecasts it’s 80% or more likely that gas falls below $2.50 this year.

Will gas prices drop below $2.50 before the end of the year?

Popularity: 22% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

2008 Election Over?

Some are saying it’s already over and packing their bags, but is it? McCain has many obstacles to surmount in the next week, but John has comeback from the dead before. Endorsements from party faithfuls like Colin Powell don’t help though. Currently Hubdub forecasts McCain has less than a 15% chance of winning.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Pundits are saying November 4th is shaping up to be a landslide win for Obama. This election could still get very, very tight though, and in the end it’s all about the electoral votes. For now Hubdub users disagree with pundits and predict a narrow election by just 45 Electoral Votes or less.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

North Carolina’s known for being a staunch GOP state. In the Dem. primaries Obama won the state, but for the summer McCain was in the lead by double digits. As the economy nears the edge of recession though it seems North Carolina may switch sides. Even now by over 60% Hubdub forecasts Obama grabs the state.

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Barack Obama has purchased 30 minutes of primetime TV on October 29th to address the nation. This will be Obama’s last chance to ’seal the deal.’ But how many people will be watching? Hubdub users think 50 million or more.

How many people will watch Barack Obama’s primetime address on 10/29?

Odd Stuff

Some might think Rock, Paper, Scissors is just a kids game but this stuff is hardcore! There’s even a World Championship in Toronto on the 25th. As to what will be the winning play rock, paper or scissors even Hubdub’s unsure just yet.

Rock Paper Scissors-What will be the winning final “throw” @ 2008 Int’l Championships?

Sports

It’s World Series time, and although the elections and economy might be getting the most attention, sports fans are going crazy. This year we have the Philadelphia Phillies facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays. By tight margins Hubdub users are forecasting a win by the Rays, but the Phillies aren’t pushovers. Good luck to both teams!

MLB World Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays - Series Outcome?

World News

Thailand’s in the midst of a political crisis right now. The first two prime ministers have gone rather quickly and now just a month into the job the thirds tenure is looking shaky. Hubdubbers predict the third prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is gone by November.

When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?

The Internet

Reddit is one of the most well known social media sites on the web, although we at Hubdub like to think we’re pretty popular too. In September Reddit brought in 3,300,327 unique visitors. Can they top that result by getting over 5 million unique hits before 2009? Less than 30% of Hubdubbers say yes.

Will Reddit.com reach 5 million Unique Visitors - Monthly in 2008?

Financial Meltdown

We’ve been through turbulent times these last weeks. The markets have gone up and up and then teetered off a cliff into a pack of ravenous wolves. Are we through the worst of it? Will we have anymore big swings in the Dow during October? Hubdub says don’t hold your breath it ain’t over yet!

How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?

Everyone likes to think that American money is American money. We’re in a interdependent world though, where one thing effects another. We’re also a country in tons of debt, who has all of our debt? Japan, but China’s catching up. By March 2009 Hubdubbers still forecast Japan holds the most American debt.

Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)

Popularity: 21% [?]