Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

 2008 Presidential Election

With a day to go Hubdub users forecast there’s a 90% chance that Barack Obama is elected. In the last few days the price on Obama has jumped 10% as it becomes clearer and clearer that for the GOP 2008 is shaping up to be a electoral washout.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

When I say Hubdubber’s are forecasting an electoral washout I have the market data to prove it! Currently Hubdub predicts that the electoral vote margin between McCain and Obama will at least be over 119 votes.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

Sometimes you need a break from all the political double talk you get from Obama and McCain. So why not try listening to ‘Joe the Plumbers’ rumored country album? Unfortunately it’s doubtful you’ll get the chance, as Hubdub forecasts there’s a 10% chance an album gets released before Inauguration Day.

Will Joe The Plumber release a country album by Inauguration Day?

Entertainment

One of the most memorable characters this year has been the Joker from the Dark Knight. With Ledger’s work winning praise from all since his passing, will he be honored by the Dark Knight being nominated? By 55% Hubdub predicts yes!

Oscar Buzz: Will ‘Dark Knight’ be nominated for Best Picture?

Gaming

Everyone likes Grand Theft Auto besides uptight parents who don’t want their kids learning about prostitution and drugs. You know who hates GTA players the most though? Probably the developers since they’ve decided to delay the PC launch by another month!

When will GTA IV be released for the PC ?

World News

One of Berlin’s oldest airports, Tempelhof closed its doors last week, but they forgot something… To let the planes waiting to takeoff leave. So now 3 planes are awaiting further instructions. Hubdubbers forecast at least one plane is removed from Tempelhof not by flying itself.

What will happen to the Tempelhof planes?

The NFL

Now that the election’s coming to a close, football fans all over can return to watching their favorite teams compete, but it’s not always a team that’s the most important. One of the most popular Hubdub NFL markets regards the Manning brothers and who’ll be a better QB. For now by 51% Hubdub forecasts Eli gets a better rating this year.

NFL: Which Manning brother will have a better year?

The Tennessee Titans are kicking butt and taking names this football season, but how long will it last? For now they’re undefeated, but Hubdubbers predict the Chicago Bears will end the Titan winning streak by 37%.

NFL - Which opponent will be the first to defeat the Tennessee Titans in 2008?

The Economic Crisis

We all love gold, but as the economic crisis gathers strength what’s its knock on effect on the price of gold? For now Hubdub forecasts that this Friday the price will close between 725.10 and 750.00 USD. The margins are close though with only 27% of the market forecasting that price.

Where will the NY Spot Gold close on Friday, November 14, 2008?

The buzz word always seems to be ‘recession,’ but soon we won’t have to worry about that fact as Hubdub forecasts the US will be in a recession within 8 weeks. There’s an 86% chance that this happens and if that doesn’t worry you I don’t know what will.

Will the National Bureau of Economic Research announce in 2008 that the U.S. is in recession?

Popularity: 20% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Election 08

Can a African American win the south? Although Barack Obama isn’t likely to win the entire south, out of all the former ‘Confederate’ states Hubdub is forecasting Barack grabs 3 states. At least that’s 3 more than Kerry got!

How many of the former Confederate States will Obama win in the Presidential Election?

Day by day Florida is looking more and more like Obama country. On the 4th though, how well will Obama perform in the specific counties? Currently by a slight margin Hubdubbers predict Obama wins 12-18 counties.

‘08 Presidential Election - How many counties in Florida will Obama win?

Early reports from states all across the country are reporting that early voting lines are systemic. Massive voter turnout is happening everywhere and it isn’t even November 4th. When the dust settles Hubdub predicts 55% of voters will turnout, but with new reports piling in every day we may just breach the 60% ceiling.

What will the voter turnout be for the 2008 Presidential election?

The McCain, Palin ticket is looking a bit drained these days, with the election a week away will Palin attempt to grab more airtime by appearing on the David Letterman show? Hubdubbers say no by 71%

Will Sarah Palin be a guest on the Late Show With David Letterman before the Election?

World News

The Suisse like liberal thinking allot, but how liberal will they go? Currently a law’s being voted on to determine whether weed should be decriminalized, and for now Hubbdubber’s doubt it’ll be passed.

Will the Suisse people vote for or against the initiative to decriminalise cannabis consumption?

Who knew? Apparently Iran has a growing ostrich industry. To celebrate this new culinary investment they created a 1500 meters long ostrich sandwich, and subsequently gobbled it up! Still unclear if it’ll be in the Guinness book of world records though.

Will huge Iranian ostrich sandwich go into the Guiness Book of Records?

Science
With all the problems on Earth right now, it’s hard to remember there’s a whole other world above us. But it’s there, and on November 14th we’ll be visiting it once again. That is, if everything goes to plan. By 82% Hubdub users forecast Space Shuttle Endeavour launches on time.

Will STS-126 (Space Shuttle Endeavour) Launch on or Before Nov 15th 2008?

Sports

Almost every single time someone mentions Lance Armstrong we’re reminded of the numerous drug testing scandals he went through. Lance has always maintained his innocence and nothing’s ever been proven, but the French are at it again, insisting that Lance is a ‘villain.’ Overwhelmingly Hubdub forecasts Lance is not found to be a doper, again…

Will Lance be our Hero or the Villain after all?

Credit Crunch

Markets are down again today, so it seems we’re caught in an endless tumble towards world recession. Every time a shimmer of hope arises on the markets, it’s quickly wiped out. Therefore Hubdub predicts at least 36-40 more triple digit swings on the Dow this year and maybe even more. Don’t worry though there’s good news somewhere…

How many triple digit point swings will the DJIA have left in 2008?

Remember how I was saying there was good news out there? Well it’s the plunging price of gas. So if you can afford the ‘credit tsunami’ drowning Wall Street and don’t drive a tank to work your in alright shape. Here’s some even better news, Hubdub forecasts it’s 80% or more likely that gas falls below $2.50 this year.

Will gas prices drop below $2.50 before the end of the year?

Popularity: 21% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

2008 Election Over?

Some are saying it’s already over and packing their bags, but is it? McCain has many obstacles to surmount in the next week, but John has comeback from the dead before. Endorsements from party faithfuls like Colin Powell don’t help though. Currently Hubdub forecasts McCain has less than a 15% chance of winning.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Pundits are saying November 4th is shaping up to be a landslide win for Obama. This election could still get very, very tight though, and in the end it’s all about the electoral votes. For now Hubdub users disagree with pundits and predict a narrow election by just 45 Electoral Votes or less.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

North Carolina’s known for being a staunch GOP state. In the Dem. primaries Obama won the state, but for the summer McCain was in the lead by double digits. As the economy nears the edge of recession though it seems North Carolina may switch sides. Even now by over 60% Hubdub forecasts Obama grabs the state.

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Barack Obama has purchased 30 minutes of primetime TV on October 29th to address the nation. This will be Obama’s last chance to ’seal the deal.’ But how many people will be watching? Hubdub users think 50 million or more.

How many people will watch Barack Obama’s primetime address on 10/29?

Odd Stuff

Some might think Rock, Paper, Scissors is just a kids game but this stuff is hardcore! There’s even a World Championship in Toronto on the 25th. As to what will be the winning play rock, paper or scissors even Hubdub’s unsure just yet.

Rock Paper Scissors-What will be the winning final “throw” @ 2008 Int’l Championships?

Sports

It’s World Series time, and although the elections and economy might be getting the most attention, sports fans are going crazy. This year we have the Philadelphia Phillies facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays. By tight margins Hubdub users are forecasting a win by the Rays, but the Phillies aren’t pushovers. Good luck to both teams!

MLB World Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays - Series Outcome?

World News

Thailand’s in the midst of a political crisis right now. The first two prime ministers have gone rather quickly and now just a month into the job the thirds tenure is looking shaky. Hubdubbers predict the third prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is gone by November.

When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?

The Internet

Reddit is one of the most well known social media sites on the web, although we at Hubdub like to think we’re pretty popular too. In September Reddit brought in 3,300,327 unique visitors. Can they top that result by getting over 5 million unique hits before 2009? Less than 30% of Hubdubbers say yes.

Will Reddit.com reach 5 million Unique Visitors - Monthly in 2008?

Financial Meltdown

We’ve been through turbulent times these last weeks. The markets have gone up and up and then teetered off a cliff into a pack of ravenous wolves. Are we through the worst of it? Will we have anymore big swings in the Dow during October? Hubdub says don’t hold your breath it ain’t over yet!

How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?

Everyone likes to think that American money is American money. We’re in a interdependent world though, where one thing effects another. We’re also a country in tons of debt, who has all of our debt? Japan, but China’s catching up. By March 2009 Hubdubbers still forecast Japan holds the most American debt.

Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)

Popularity: 20% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Credit Crunch

Two weeks ago we were predicting whether the DOW would drop below 10,000. Shortly thereafter the market dropped right through that mark. Now as the DOW just tries to stay afloat the question lingers, have we seen the worst of it? Sadly Hubdubbers doubt it’s over, forecasting the DOW will close below 7,000 in 2008.

What will be the lowest close for the DJIA in 2008?

We’ve all heard the rumors about a GM Chrysler merger but at first it didn’t seem possible. As the markets worsen though, this deal seems more and more plausible. Companies like GM are on the edge of an abyss, falling SUV sales and a failing economy are pushing this merger, but will it happen? For now 60% of Hubdubbers still think it won’t.

Will GM and Chrysler be announced to merge before December 15?

The markets are rebounding right now, after world leaders announced more plans to rebuild the broken financial markets. The start of this week looks good in comparison with the last two weeks where stunning losses were followed by only more stunning losses. As the weeks moves on though can they continue their rebound or will more bad news lead to more losses?

Will Dow (DJIA) close up the week Oct 13-17?

The Election Heats Up

Is John McCain your friend? If you’ve been watching him recite ‘My Friends’ this and ‘My friends’ that you’d think he’s the most popular person in the world. For Wednesdays debate look forward to more ‘My Friends’ this and ‘My friends’ that, as Hubdub forecasts McCain says ‘My friends’ more than 12 times. Phew, that was 5 ‘My friends’ right there!

3rd Presidential Debate Oct 15 — How many times will McCain address the audience as, “my friends”?

It seems the one person being helped by the financial crisis is Barack Obama. Since the DOW crash Obama’s lead in the polls has grown exponentially. If Obama does win, Hubdub users forecast there’s a 48% chance that he wins in a landslide, getting at least 2/3 of the electoral votes.

Will Barack Obama win a landslide victory (at least 2/3 of electoral college votes)?

World News

Can a country go bankrupt? The answer is yes if a government defaults. Following Iceland’s nationalization of its banks, some have alluded to the possibility of national bankruptcy. Fortunately Hubdub users give Iceland only a 25% chance of bankruptcy in the near future.

Will Iceland be officially bankrupt by the end of the year?

Canada’s not usually known for political violence. Although, recently some Liberal party supporters have awoken to find their car brake lines cut. The vandalism is being investigated by police. Although hubdubbers doubt anyone will be arrested, giving only a 21% chance of arrests being made.

Will any of the brake-line cutting vandals of Toronto Liberal supporters be arrested?

Sport

Instant replay has been around in the NFL for a long time, but just this season it’s been introduced into the MLB. With the biggest event coming up this month, Hubdub users are forecasting by 60% that instant replay will be used to determine or challenge a call in the World Series.

Will instant replay be used to determine or challenge a call in the 2008 World Series

Odd Stuff
There’s the Olympics and then there’s the the World Mind Games. For armchair generals the Beijing Mind Games offer an array of brain strengthening events in bridge, chess, draughts, Go and Xiangqi. It’s a chance for those who were never really  popular in high school to regain some self esteem. Home ground advantage seems to be proving true as Hubdubbers predict Asia tops the gold medal tally.

A country from which region will top the gold medal tally at the World Mind Games?

Entertainment

In one swoop Tina Fey saved Saturday Night Live from cancellation. As Sarah Palin Tina brought in swathes of new viewers. In the final days of the election rumors are abound of a joint Sarah Palin, Tina Fey SNL appearance, but will it happen? 75% of Hubdubbers forecast it will.

Will Tina Fey and Sarah Palin make a joint appearance on SNL prior to the November election?

Popularity: 16% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Economic Crisis

Let’s be frank our economy isn’t doing that great. All financial indicators point to things getting worse before they get better.  The first attempt at passing a bailout bill left the financial markets in tailspin, but Congress gets another chance to make things right. Thankfully Hubdub forecasts there’s an 84% chance Congress will pass a bailout package by the end of October.

Will the US Congress pass a bailout package by the end of October

The financial crisis widens everyday, but how does that translate into cold numbers?  The highest Dow opening was 13,198.10 in 2007, since then the markets have dropped significantly. We’re now in sight of passing through the 10,000.00 mark on our slippery downwards slope. For now over 60% of users predict we won’t have to deal with the Dow closing below 10,000.00, but in this tough economic climate that forecast could change rapidly.

When will the Dow close below 10,000?

Some say we’re in recession, some say we ain’t. What might not be a technical recession though sure feels like one. A recession is measured on GDP values, and successive quarters of negative GDP growth equal a recession. We have four quarters in a year and so far our 3rd quarter is looking quite dismal with estimates of only 2.8% growth. Happily though Hubdubber’s don’t forecast negative growth in the third quarter.

hird querterWill the US economy have negative growth in the third quarter 2008?

Vice Presidential Debate - Palin and Biden duke it out

The Vice Presidential Debate is this week and although some might want to talk about important issues like energy security and health care, the majority of people are a bit more vane. The important issue for us Hubdubber’s is whether Palin wears a Skirt or Pants.

VP debate Oct 2: Will Sarah Palin wear a skirt or pants?

World News

The coast off Somalia has been host to brazen Pirate attacks in the past month. Recently though some pirates have gotten sick. Is the reason WMD’s? When the pirates commandeered an Iranian vessel they encountered more then they bargained for, and some died due to toxic chemicals stored on the ship. What those chemicals are though still remains a mystery?

Will it be determined that a Iranian ship overtaken by pirates contains chemical weapons?

Science

This years Nobel Prize in Medicine is shoring up to be quite interesting, over 190 names have been submitted for the prize, but where will the winner come from? Most Hubdub users predict North America’s got dibs, but the Europeans and Asians have contributed much to medical science in the past decade. Where will the winner come from?

To which world region will this year’s Nobel Prize in Medicine go?

MLB Playoffs

We’re nearing the world series now, but first we have to get through the tough stuff. First up we have the LA Angels facing the Boston Red Sox in the American League divisions series. Hubdubbers think the likely winner of the series will be the Angels. In the National League division series it’s the Milwaukee Brewers versus the Philadelphia Phillies. For that match up Hubdubbers are forecasting the Phillies win the series in 4 games by only 23%! This is gonna be close!

MLB - Who will win the AL divisional series between the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Angels?

MLB - Who will win the NL divisional series between Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies?

Odd Stuff

David Blane’s a nutter! There’s no getting around that simple point, but at least we get some enjoyment out of his crazy frolicking. Hubdubber’s currently think he’ll stage another wacky and some might say stupid stunt next year. The real question should be will he be alive to perform his next stunt?

Will David Blane stage another large scale stunt in the next year?

TV Shows

Some shows should just die! Prime example being the new Knight Rider. Let’s face it, it’s not great, it’s got bad actors and it’s a drama featuring a talking car. Need any more be said? Apparently not as over 50% of Hubdub users forecast that Knight Rider will get the axe before January 1st.

Fall TV Preview: How will NBC’s Knight Rider do this season?

Popularity: 16% [?]

Since being announced as the Vice Presidential candidate for John McCain one week ago, Sarah Palin has left an indelible impression on the market and the presidential election. On the morning of the August 29, just before McCain announced his VP, his chances of becoming the next president were sitting at 33%, with Obama clearly the favourite at 62%. By the end of the day of the announcement of Palin’s appointment, the heat was on this market with McCain’s numbers rising to 35% but matched by Obama’s rise to 64%.

When rumors that the Palins’ fifth child, Trig, was potentially Palin’s grandchild and the subsequent explosive revelation that 17 year old Bristol Palin was expecting, McCain’s forecast dropped to a market low of 17%.

However, since then, the market has proved that we all love a scandal and a woman who can give a good speech. After Palin’s RNC address on September 3, McCain’s forecast was boosted back to 44%.

Currently, the market forecasts McCain as having a 48% chance of becoming the next president, Obama 58%. Palin has reduced the gap between the two frontrunners to one of the tightest margins since the beginning of the campaign - so far, she appears to be a winning pick by McCain.

Who will be the next President of the U.S.?

Popularity: 8% [?]

By Ryan Jacobs (Politics Category Editor)

For months we’ve watched the Democratic nomination drudgingly soldier on. Now though the light at the end of the tunnel has finally appeared. As we near the end of the nominating process lets analyze what got us to this point.

At the end of April it still seemed like the fight between Clinton and Obama was a competition. McCain although out in the GOP wilderness was building his machine and raising funds. But as April turned into May a momentous shift occurred showcased by the market chart above. Around May 6-7th the entire Who will be the next President market shifted.

Clinton’s price began a slow but steady downwards slope and this price decrease boosted Obama’s standing, leading him to break free from McCain and soar ahead. Despite fallout from Reverend Wright and other political gaffes Obama’s been able to not only maintain a lead in the markets but build on it.

Oddly, the Gallup polls show a close general election race between Obama and McCain, but the markets which are asking the same question have very different results. They show what seems to be a knockout win for Obama in November. The question is why is this happening? It’s possible that Gallup responders are tinged more by ideology and don’t just take into consideration the facts but also predict who they want to be the next President. Prediction markets users don’t predict who they hope will be the next President, there predictions are based almost solely on cold hard calculations of who will be the next President. This is because they want the large payoff from predicting correct.

So what events or event caused the sudden change in the markets? If we track this back to the primaries, 2 come to mind, the May 6th Indiana and North Carolina primaries. After these as seen through the market Obama began his quick ascension, while Clinton and McCain both faltered.

So why did McCain and Clinton both falter after Indiana and North Carolina? Well, Obama won Carolina with large margins and was able to keep Clinton’s win in Indiana small, therefore he was finally able to shut her down. With Clinton all but officially done Obama could now focus on McCain. As Obama focused on McCain it became clearer and clearer who of the two was the front runner for the Presidential election and the market adjusted for this showcased by McCain’s slow downturn and Obama’s rapid ascent.

Obama now holds a major lead in the markets and once Clinton is officially gone I’d predict Obama’s price will inflate once again. The problem is when will the downturn happen? Obama can’t fly like this forever and soon enough the GOP will begin to mercilessly attack. The election this year won’t be a blowout for Obama and soon enough the markets will adjust to this, the question is when?

what is this?

Who will be the next President of the U.S.?

% chance over time

    John McCain

    Mike Huckabee

    Ron Paul

    Ralph Nader

    Mike Bloomberg

    Hillary Clinton

    Barack Obama

    Other

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Hubdub - The News Prediction Game

Popularity: 18% [?]

By Ryan (Politics Editor)

Many thought a Texas Obama win was very possible, and although Ohio had always been a harder target for the Obama campaign polling before the race had showed a very tight primary. What happened was a message from the voters. In the primaries and caucuses that day the voters decided that the nomination process should go on; they wanted further examination of the candidates. How though, will this help Democrats win the election?

The short answer is it will not. With John McCain as the GOP nominee, McCain is free to open fire on the Democrats. He doesn’t have to worry about primaries or that pesky Huckabee anymore. The only hurdle now is a VP choice, and even that doesn’t need to be sorted with extreme expediency. While the Democrats continue playing chicken down the long road to the convention, McCain can begin his Presidential campaign. He now has free time to raise money and strengthen the GOP political machine.

Meanwhile, the Democrats need to pick a candidate, and that’s where the main dilemma stands. The superdelegates issue has been talked to death by the media, but no real solution has appeared. It now seems very likely that the Democratic convention will be the deciding point for the nomination. If this occurs, whoever wins the nomination will carry a laundry list of attacks on them by the past Democratic contender not to mention a primed and ready GOP political machine.

So as of right now, the Democrats, once seen as the party to beat for this years elections are actually behind in the race for President, with no foreseeable conclusion until the convention.

Will the democratic nomination be decided by a brokered deal between the two candidates?

Who will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?

Popularity: 14% [?]

By Ryan (Politics Editor)

After 11 straight losses since Super Tuesday, the Clinton campaign is on the ropes. Though it may be depressing for Clinton supporters to face, the possibility of her dropping out after March 4th is very real. The inspiration of New Hampshire might still reinvigorate hope of a comeback in some, but even if Clinton manages to bag Ohio, dropping out may be her best course of action.

It is said that money makes the world go round, and in political campaigns no truer words are spoken. Contributions to Obama in recent months have filled the coffers and due to this Obama currently trounces Clinton in advertising. Especially in Texas where Obama is dominating the airwaves. News forecaster, Hubdub is predicting that the chances of Clinton winning in Texas are slim. Hubdub and others like it have been accurate predictors of the primaries so far.

But why should she drop out? Yes she’s losing primaries, yes she’s losing money, but why should she really dropout? The answer is Nader! Yes that wily 60 something year old is at it again. He ruined Gore and now he’s ruined Hillary. It would seem the outspoken consumer rights activist really has something against the former Clinton administration…

So how is this possible? Well, we can all agree that to a certain extent Clinton is a more divisive candidate than Obama. If Hillary were to run against McCain in 2008, the Nader factor would come into play. In a divisive campaign Nader pulls votes from Democrats, not Republicans. With Hillary only winning by the slimmest of margins in match ups against McCain, Nader’s siphoning of Democratic votes would turn an already polarized electorate lethal. Clinton would not be able to get enough votes to beat McCain due to Nader. In tight states like Florida, McCain would win by the smallest of margins, but he would still win.

Thinking tactically, Democrats, which ever candidate they favor, should support Clinton dropping out after March 4th. Not because of her policies or her message but because of the baggage carried with the Clinton name. This divisive factor compounded by Nader’s siphoning are to blame. With Obama, it’s more likely Republican votes can be stolen. Additionally independents, usually a mainstay of McCain, have shown increased support for Obama. To ensure a rerun of 2000 doesn’t occur Democrats must think about the most plausible way of winning, and as of now that way is Obama.

Track Clinton v McCain in a head to head: If Clinton is nominated, who will win the Presidency?

Track Obama v McCain in a head to head: If Obama is nominated, who will in the Presidency?

Popularity: 16% [?]

Prediction market, Intrade, topped the pollster Zogby in predicting the winners of Iowa’s caucus. The forecast taken last night at 9:30 EST shows Obama and Huckabee having clear leads on Intrade. Zogby however while forecasting a Huckabee win couldn’t separate Clinton and Obama (putting both at 28%). Interestingly, neither suggested that Clinton would end up in third place.

Onward to New Hampshire where Obama is favorite on both Intrade (67%) and Betfair (59%) to win the state. John McCain, who appears to be one of the surpising winners of Iowa, has seen his forecast probability of taking New Hampshire has shot up from around 40% to 71% over the past couple of days (Intrade).

Overall, Clinton still remains favorite to gain the Democratic nomination, but only by a sliver (52% on Intrade, 53% on Betfair). For the Republicans, John McCain has now become the front runner for the nomination (32% on Intrade, 29% on Betfair). Despite last night’s win Huckabee trails in third position on a forecast on both exchanges of 16% chance of getting the nomination.

For all you Paulites, both exchanges are forecasting around a 5% chance of Ron getting the nomination.

For me, I’ve got a tenner on Obama to get the Democrat nomination. For him to get such a resounding win in a rural 95% white state I think indicates the strength and breadth of his appeal.

Hat tip to Caveat Bettor.

Popularity: 13% [?]