Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

World News

The Mumbai terror attacks exacted a heavy toll on Indians and foreigners alike, but who was behind it? Initial intelligence is pointing to Pakistani ISI involvement and the terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taib. Could the terror attacks though be the work of elements from Al Qaeda? Hubdub predicts the chances of Al Qaeda involvement are above 40%.

Will the Nov 26 Mumbai terrorist attacks be connected to al Qaeda by the end of 2008?

Thailand’s been in a state of political upheaval for many months and arguably years. This political unrest though only now seems to be gaining worldwide attention. Protesters have seized Thailand’s main airports effectively shutting down Thailand’s main international artery. In the last day Hubdub forecasts have spiked. We now forecast by 65% that Thailand’s main international airport won’t be reopened by Sunday 7 December.

When will Thailand’s international airport be reopened?

Entertainment

Axl Rose from Guns N’ Roses is upset. So he’s doing what all rich rock stars do when they’re upset, making ridiculous demands. Due to a snafu in advertising he’s demanding Dr. Pepper take out a full-page apology in The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today and The Wall Street Journal. Likeliness that it will happen? 15%.

Will Dr Pepper apologize to Axl?

Sports

The South Eastern Conference championship kicks off this week, and it’s garnering allot of attention on Hubdub. There’s already H$22,492 on it! This year it’s the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. the Florida Gators, and Hubdub forecasts a win by the Gators, giving them a tight but healthy 54% chance.

SEC Championship Game - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators - Who will win?

General News

Often times you hear of stampedes happening in India or other less developed areas of the world. But if you thought for any second that human nature changes when living in a developed nation, you’d be wrong. Westerner’s are just as screwed up as everyone else. Evidenced by the shocking death of Jdimytai Damour a Wal-mart employee who was trampled to death by Long Island shoppers last week. Hubdub gives Jdimytai’s family a 80% chance of filing suit against Wal-mart.

Will the family of Jdimytai Damour file a lawsuit against Wall-Mart ?

Popularity: 17% [?]

Prediction markets typically focus on the usual who’ll win the race, and by how much. On Hubdub there are some interesting topics that are often hidden under the financial crisis and Obama’s transition. One of them is the crisis in Somalia. Whilst the markets on more obscure topics tend to be harder to get accurate reads on than purely US focused topics, Hubdub does have more users from Africa than from, say, Mexico, and the situation in Somalia is increasingly of international concern.

The market getting the most attention regards the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi oil supertanker off Somalia’s coast. With reports surfacing that Islamists plan to reclaim the ship in the name of Islam, over the last day the odds on the market have shifted. With almost H$30k at stake, it’s currently giving a 54% chance that the ransom will be paid and the crew released. Let’s hope the market is right, and force isn’t necessary.

What will be the outcome of the seizure of the Saudi supertanker Sirius Star?

Another fascinating market is asking who will sink the next ‘pirate ship’. The Indian Navy already sank a Somali pirate ship this month, but Hubdub’s currently predicting Russia is 23% likely to be the next “sinker”.

An Indian navy warship sank a Somalian pirate “ship.” Which country is going to sink another ?

To check out all of Hubdub’s current markets on Somalia go to our Somalia tag section.

Some other interesting Somalia forecasts:

Somalia likely to be most corrupt nation in 2009

Islamic insurgents 56% likely to take over control of Somalia

Popularity: 7% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

2008 Election Over?

Some are saying it’s already over and packing their bags, but is it? McCain has many obstacles to surmount in the next week, but John has comeback from the dead before. Endorsements from party faithfuls like Colin Powell don’t help though. Currently Hubdub forecasts McCain has less than a 15% chance of winning.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Pundits are saying November 4th is shaping up to be a landslide win for Obama. This election could still get very, very tight though, and in the end it’s all about the electoral votes. For now Hubdub users disagree with pundits and predict a narrow election by just 45 Electoral Votes or less.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

North Carolina’s known for being a staunch GOP state. In the Dem. primaries Obama won the state, but for the summer McCain was in the lead by double digits. As the economy nears the edge of recession though it seems North Carolina may switch sides. Even now by over 60% Hubdub forecasts Obama grabs the state.

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Barack Obama has purchased 30 minutes of primetime TV on October 29th to address the nation. This will be Obama’s last chance to ’seal the deal.’ But how many people will be watching? Hubdub users think 50 million or more.

How many people will watch Barack Obama’s primetime address on 10/29?

Odd Stuff

Some might think Rock, Paper, Scissors is just a kids game but this stuff is hardcore! There’s even a World Championship in Toronto on the 25th. As to what will be the winning play rock, paper or scissors even Hubdub’s unsure just yet.

Rock Paper Scissors-What will be the winning final “throw” @ 2008 Int’l Championships?

Sports

It’s World Series time, and although the elections and economy might be getting the most attention, sports fans are going crazy. This year we have the Philadelphia Phillies facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays. By tight margins Hubdub users are forecasting a win by the Rays, but the Phillies aren’t pushovers. Good luck to both teams!

MLB World Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays - Series Outcome?

World News

Thailand’s in the midst of a political crisis right now. The first two prime ministers have gone rather quickly and now just a month into the job the thirds tenure is looking shaky. Hubdubbers predict the third prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is gone by November.

When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?

The Internet

Reddit is one of the most well known social media sites on the web, although we at Hubdub like to think we’re pretty popular too. In September Reddit brought in 3,300,327 unique visitors. Can they top that result by getting over 5 million unique hits before 2009? Less than 30% of Hubdubbers say yes.

Will Reddit.com reach 5 million Unique Visitors - Monthly in 2008?

Financial Meltdown

We’ve been through turbulent times these last weeks. The markets have gone up and up and then teetered off a cliff into a pack of ravenous wolves. Are we through the worst of it? Will we have anymore big swings in the Dow during October? Hubdub says don’t hold your breath it ain’t over yet!

How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?

Everyone likes to think that American money is American money. We’re in a interdependent world though, where one thing effects another. We’re also a country in tons of debt, who has all of our debt? Japan, but China’s catching up. By March 2009 Hubdubbers still forecast Japan holds the most American debt.

Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)

Popularity: 21% [?]

By Donal

According to The Sun, the Yorkshire Ripper, Peter Sutcliffe is making a legal bid for freedom. The man responsible for the killing and mutilation of 13 women over a 5 year period in the North of England claims his human rights have been breached. He wants to be declared sane, transferred to a normal prison and given a date for his release.

Mad or Bad?
There has always been question marks over the nature of Sutcliffe’s incarceration (not the incarceration itself). At his original trial in 1981 , the prosecution were initially willing to accept a manslaughter conviction on the basis of diminished responsibility. Sutcliffe claimed that he had been told by God to kill prostitutes and was diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia. But the trial Judge rejected this and ordered that a trial by jury go ahead. Sutcliffe was convicted of Murder and sentenced to life imprisonment. He served the initial three years of his sentence in a conventional prison before again being diagnosed with schizophrenia and was transferred to Broadmoor high security mental hospital.

However, this decision was called into question in 2003 following the publication of Michael Bilton’s book on the Ripper. New revelations on what Sutcliffe was wearing when he committed his crimes indicated a sexual motive; casting huge doubt on his claims that he believed himself under instructions from God. On this basis (and others) Bilton suggested that Sucliffe was faking his illness so that he could enjoy a more comfortable incarceration in a mental hospital. Now that Sutcliffe conveniently believes himself to be cured, Bilton’s theory has been lent further creedance.

Does Life mean Life?
There are also questions over the whole life tariff Sutcliffe is being held under which has been the subject of much legal wrangling over the years. In February 2007, the European Court of Human Rights announced that it was considering whether it is a contravention of human rights for someone to be sentenced to lifelong imprisonment.

Lets hope Life does mean Life!
Sutcliffe’s barrister will attempt to use the European Convention of Human Rights to secure his release by 2011 and is confident of a result. Lets hope she is wrong.

Will the Yorkshire Rippers application for a release date be succesful?

Will Peter Sutcliffe, the Yorkshire Ripper be released by 2011?

Popularity: 4% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

Poor Gordon Brown (excuse the sarcasm).

Assessing his current predicament, one can draw many parallels with previous PMs and Labour leaders. Like James Callaghan, he opted not to call an early election when he really should have, and the scale of Labours recent defeat in the English and Welsh local elections is comparable to that suffered under Michael Foot in the 1983 General Election.

But the most interesting parallel I feel is with Mrs Thatcher. After a decade of hubris, she introduced the poll tax and was stabbed in the back by her own party. Mr Brown’s followed his decade of hubris (much of it as a Chancellor of unprecedented influence) with his own poll tax moment; the abolition of the 10p tax band. Time will tell though whether he too will be stabbed in the back amidst the resurgence of the Tories, rising criticism from within his own party and an increasingly hostile press.

But while Gordon Browns ignominious demise is inevitable, I don’t think it is likely to come soon. The political careers and ambitions of the likes of Miliband and Balls would be better served by having Gordon Brown lose the next election; thereby allowing them to step in, regroup the party in opposition, and have a better shot at an election victory the next time round.

So, like I said; poor Gordon Brown. His decade long wait to get a shot at the top job was probably agonizing and torturous. His remaining years as PM will be much the same.

Will Gordon Brown still be the UK’s Prime Minister on 1st Nov 2008?

Will Gordon Brown resign before the end of Aug 2008?

Who will last longer, Hilary Clinton or Gordon Brown?

Popularity: 4% [?]

By Diana (General Category Editor)

Every now and then a news story breaks that shakes one’s faith in the integrity of the human race. How a man could rape and imprison his own daughter for twenty-four years is beyond explanation; yet, how Josef Fritzl was able to keep his horrific secret unknown for over two decades is another mystery waiting to be probed. As the days progress, more horrific details surrounding Josef Fritzl’s diabolical double life are being released.

Within the confines of a heavily secured cellar, Fritzl managed to hold his daughter Elisabeth hostage since 1984, fathering seven children with her in his subterranean bunker while leading a conspicuously different life above ground in Amstetten. At this point in the investigation, it is believed that the 73-year-old Austrian exclusively held the cellar’s many keys and codes and neither his wife Rosemarie nor his other children knew of the family beneath their noses. According to Rosemarie Fritzl’s sister, Fritzl would often stay in the cellar all night and his wife was not even allowed to bring him coffee. During this twenty-four year enslavement of her daughter, how did Rosemarie Fritzl not suspect something bizarre was occurring in her house and why didn’t she question the “discovery” of three of Elisabeth’s children on her doorstep?

Perhaps she knew what her husband was capable of doing and that his sexual behaviour crossed the line of normalcy. Reported by Austrian builder, Paul Stocker, the elderly couple was spotted in swingers clubs near Amstetten in the late nineties. Stocker, shocked by the spectacle, watched in disbelief as Fritzl forced his wife into a corner in order to witness him advance upon a young woman. Further investigation may show that Rosemarie Fritzl was always forced into a corner; however it may be discovered that she knew of her daughter’s torture and failed to inform the authorities.

Popularity: 9% [?]

By Diana

Upheaval and protest have followed the Olympic torch since it began its worldwide journey on April 1, 2008. Reports of violence, numerous arrests, and coverage of the torch being extinguished is widespread. Pro-Tibet and human rights protesters have confronted torchbearers and security guards alike and with many days to go until the August 8, 2008 opening ceremony, there appears to be little sign of the demonstration’s slowing worldwide.

London’s April 6, 2008 portion of the relay was met with heavy resistance when protesters, voicing against China’s position on Tibet and Darfur, attempted to grab the torch and hinder the procession. It was also reported that one protester tried to extinguish the torch’s flame with what appeared to be a fire extinguisher.

Crowds along the torch route shouted “Free Tibet!” and “China, talk to Dalai Lama!”, wielding posters displaying anti-Chinese foreign policy slogans. 37 people were arrested for assorted offenses.

The following day, the Olympic torch faced more disquiet in San Francisco have already begun to experience protest prior to the torch’s arrival, which occurred this morning.
Two days ago, a pair of extremely large banners reading “One World One Dream. Free Tibet” and “Free Tibet 08″ were on display after three activists climbed a suspension cable of the Golden Gate Bridge. Rumor of a larger high-tech insurgency planned in association with The San Francisco Bay Area Darfur Coalition is said to unveil a “viral video,” or a video clip, designed to raise awareness about China’s ties to Sudan and the Darfur conflict just in time for Wednesday’s parade in the Bay Area. Tensions are high for this afternoon’s two-and-a-half-hour relay along the San Francisco waterfront.

With over a hundred days to go until the torch’s arrival in Beijing, the emblem for the Olympic spirit, now a highly politicized symbol of international disunity, is threatened at every turn. Security agents and local police forces will struggle against waves of demonstrators and protesters hoping to extinguish and confiscate the symbolic Olympic vestige are expected. Whether the torch shall remain in torchbearer hands today or if the entire torch relay will be abandoned, has yet to be determined.

Popularity: 10% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

(Not really Sport, but this one is close to home for me, so I’m going to self appoint myself to the non existent position of Hubdub’s Ireland Editor for this post.)

Enoch Powell’s assertion that “all political lives end in failure” is rarely proved wrong. So it was with some sadness I learned that Bertie Ahern is the latest politician to vindicate it, following his announcement that he is to resign as Taoiseach (Irish Prime Minister), on May 6th. Whatever about the circumstances that fueled the media campaign against him and precipitated his departure, history will ultimately judge Bertie Ahern very favorably in my opinion.

So who will be Irelands version of Gordon Brown and replace a prime minister who has won three elections and been in power for over a decade? Its a question that answers itself really; it will almost certainly be Irelands version of Gordon Brown: Brian Cowen (aka Biffo).  He’s rather dour, certainly not slim, and will more than likely lose the next general election he contests.

And what next for Bertie Ahern? Could he be the next President of Ireland or even the next President of the EU.

He is only 56 so he still has time to prove Enoch Powell wrong.

Will Brian Cowen succeed Bertie Ahern as Taoiseach (Irish PM)?

Who will become the first Permanent President of the European Union ?

Popularity: 5% [?]