Image via Wikipedia

Over the next couple of weeks we are going to be experimenting with advertising on the site. Initially, we are going to be trialling Adsense (that is the one that gives context sensitive text ads) but then we will also be looking to add some display advertising soon. We will be trying to add the advertising in a way that doesn’t significantly affect the look and feel of the site or negatively effect the functionality.

As I am sure everyone reading this blog will know, times are tight. Unfortunately, Obama’s stimulus package doesn’t stretch to us so we are on our own in trying to turn a dime. Hopefully, in the process we can introduce you to some great products and services.

If you are interested advertising with us then please contact us here.

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Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Economic Crisis

Let’s be frank our economy isn’t doing that great. All financial indicators point to things getting worse before they get better.  The first attempt at passing a bailout bill left the financial markets in tailspin, but Congress gets another chance to make things right. Thankfully Hubdub forecasts there’s an 84% chance Congress will pass a bailout package by the end of October.

Will the US Congress pass a bailout package by the end of October

The financial crisis widens everyday, but how does that translate into cold numbers?  The highest Dow opening was 13,198.10 in 2007, since then the markets have dropped significantly. We’re now in sight of passing through the 10,000.00 mark on our slippery downwards slope. For now over 60% of users predict we won’t have to deal with the Dow closing below 10,000.00, but in this tough economic climate that forecast could change rapidly.

When will the Dow close below 10,000?

Some say we’re in recession, some say we ain’t. What might not be a technical recession though sure feels like one. A recession is measured on GDP values, and successive quarters of negative GDP growth equal a recession. We have four quarters in a year and so far our 3rd quarter is looking quite dismal with estimates of only 2.8% growth. Happily though Hubdubber’s don’t forecast negative growth in the third quarter.

hird querterWill the US economy have negative growth in the third quarter 2008?

Vice Presidential Debate - Palin and Biden duke it out

The Vice Presidential Debate is this week and although some might want to talk about important issues like energy security and health care, the majority of people are a bit more vane. The important issue for us Hubdubber’s is whether Palin wears a Skirt or Pants.

VP debate Oct 2: Will Sarah Palin wear a skirt or pants?

World News

The coast off Somalia has been host to brazen Pirate attacks in the past month. Recently though some pirates have gotten sick. Is the reason WMD’s? When the pirates commandeered an Iranian vessel they encountered more then they bargained for, and some died due to toxic chemicals stored on the ship. What those chemicals are though still remains a mystery?

Will it be determined that a Iranian ship overtaken by pirates contains chemical weapons?

Science

This years Nobel Prize in Medicine is shoring up to be quite interesting, over 190 names have been submitted for the prize, but where will the winner come from? Most Hubdub users predict North America’s got dibs, but the Europeans and Asians have contributed much to medical science in the past decade. Where will the winner come from?

To which world region will this year’s Nobel Prize in Medicine go?

MLB Playoffs

We’re nearing the world series now, but first we have to get through the tough stuff. First up we have the LA Angels facing the Boston Red Sox in the American League divisions series. Hubdubbers think the likely winner of the series will be the Angels. In the National League division series it’s the Milwaukee Brewers versus the Philadelphia Phillies. For that match up Hubdubbers are forecasting the Phillies win the series in 4 games by only 23%! This is gonna be close!

MLB - Who will win the AL divisional series between the Boston Red Sox and the Los Angeles Angels?

MLB - Who will win the NL divisional series between Milwaukee Brewers and the Philadelphia Phillies?

Odd Stuff

David Blane’s a nutter! There’s no getting around that simple point, but at least we get some enjoyment out of his crazy frolicking. Hubdubber’s currently think he’ll stage another wacky and some might say stupid stunt next year. The real question should be will he be alive to perform his next stunt?

Will David Blane stage another large scale stunt in the next year?

TV Shows

Some shows should just die! Prime example being the new Knight Rider. Let’s face it, it’s not great, it’s got bad actors and it’s a drama featuring a talking car. Need any more be said? Apparently not as over 50% of Hubdub users forecast that Knight Rider will get the axe before January 1st.

Fall TV Preview: How will NBC’s Knight Rider do this season?

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We’re really excited to announce that Hubdub has just passed its pre-flight checks and has now entered private beta! The craft is air-worthy but there may still be the odd rumble in the engine.

We are giving out a restricted number of invite codes. To get one, go to Hubdub.com, enter your email address and it should be with you pronto.

Nigel

Popularity: 5% [?]

Pajamas Media has a great write-up of the success British Newspapers have had in attracting US audiences:

http://pajamasmedia.com/2007/11/british_press_invasion.php

I think it is a great reminder of what a vibrant and exciting news market exists in the UK. One of the key differences that wasn’t brought out in the article, however, is that the UK newspaper market is a national market whereas the main newspapers in US tend to be regional (with the exception of USA Today and to a lesser extent The New York Times). US newspapers tend to be dominant in their city which results in a lack of competition and vibrancy.

UK newspapers would however love to have the US newspapers’ profit margins. In the UK broadsheet papers, the Telegraph is barely profitable, the Times rarely makes a profit, the Independent has never (to my knowledge) made a profit and the Guardian doesn’t even try! (Amusingly, the Guardian’s official position is ‘profit seeking’). Also it should be noted that the biggest (by a country mile) news site in the UK is the BBC (which is entirely funded by tax-payers and therefore I guess could be described as ‘tax seeking’).

One thing that surprised me was how poorly Time is doing (especially when they are basically giving it away for free to subscribers). Nearly all the UK news and current affairs magazines (The Week, Economist, Spectator, New Statesman, Private Eye etc) are doing well at the moment. Part of that is due to them putting together great products (The Economist, Private Eye and the Spectator are all excellent). However I also think there is a structural change going on. My own hyposisis is that as people get more and more of their daily news online, they are giving up on their daily paper but they still want a print news digest therefore they are moving to the weekly magazines. Not sure why that isn’t the same in the US.

A quick analysis of UK newspapers from Yes Prime Minister (re-shown here for those of you that don’t click through):

Nigel

Popularity: 6% [?]

Tom - Hard at work

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Rob - Hard at work

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Chris - Refusing to work

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Nigel - Work? What work?

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10 Print “Hello World!”

20 Goto 10

30 Rem  My career as a developer doesn’t look great, better go find another job…

Hi,

I’m Nigel and I’m the Chief News Junkie at Hubdub.

Hubdub is a news aggregator that uses a prediction market mechanism to rank news articles by their impact on news story outcomes. It will allow users to discover only the high quality, significant news articles on a story; track running news stories over time; and enjoy predicting outcomes themselves in competition with other users. Successful predictors are rewarded in kudos which allows greater editorial control over the site and can be transferred to other online activities.

We are currently in development so I guess you could say we are in stealth mode but actually we’re so excited about the product that we find it difficult not to tell people all about! In this blog we plan to:

• Give regular progress updates on product development, and get your input
• Review some of the exciting innovations that have taken place in the online news and prediction markets in the last 12 months
• Share our experience in setting up a consumer web start-up in bonnie Edinburgh

Keep posted for regular updates.

Nigel

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Welcome to the Hubdub blog! If you don’t know what Hubdub is yet don’t worry, all will be revealed over the coming months…

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