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Reflections on my first year

Saturday, January 31st, 2009

Today’s my first birthday at Hubdub and its forced me to do some reminiscing…  A year ago today, I read about Hubdub in Wired magazine — it looked like fun so I signed up, but like many of the early adopters didn’t get my initial 1000 stake. The Hubdub servers were unprepared for the onslaught and crashed.  I was quickly mollified though when Nigel wrote me a personal note to apologize!  I got my husband signed a couple days later and my mother a month after that.

 

In the beginning, I wasn’t very interested in my net worth. I put down random 10 and 20 dollar bets on what I wanted to happen and paid little attention to my dimishing bank account. It wasn’t long though until my husband was nearing the 10 thousand mark and all of a sudden I got a lot more competitive. I remember the days of obsessively tracking the stock market, listening to all the financial news prior to the opening bell and researching what earnings reports were being released that day — and at what time. I remember being *so* anxious that the American Idol market wasn’t settled within minutes of the reveal, because I was desperate to reinvest for the next week. (It took me a while to learn that all the editors at the time lived in the UK and were asleep then!).

 

The early days were short on rules. There were questions about aliens meeting with the UN and a lot more focus on the leaderboard rankings. New rules were usually hashed out over on the getsatisfaction board — ahh those were the days. Here’s one of my alltime favorite threads.  I think what I miss most was the little emoticons at the end of every message. I would love it if we could include that in our new forum!

 

We developed some Hubdub venacular early on in the year, which seems to have fallen by the wayside recently (via meanderingsearcher who was the official Hubdub vocabulary keeper):

“Spitzer” - literally “screwed”. Check out the history on this market

“fistinction” - its gotta to be my way or “to the moon Alice”

“pics4ded” - I’m gonna take my toys and go home

“cognositis” - the act of deliberately losing your net worth, just to prove a point   

 

One of my favorite missing users — lucidstates. Which was clearly a misnomer, because he was rarely lucid, but a great player. He was the first to get me addicted to box office markets. He also spammed nearly every single open market during the Hubdub strike of 08! Craziest question, hands down, goes to Destry, who, while clearly being sarcastic made a pretty great question encapsulating every single important news item of the week.

 

Now a year later, I’ve been a user, a superuser and now a category editor. I figure by next year I should own the company (kidding, Nigel!). I find myself wishing the birthday cake on my profile was edible, but am thankful for the year of experiences that it represents. Can’t wait to see what another year will bring! [Did I leave out your favorite Hubdub story? Post it in the comments!]

Popularity: 13% [?]

Top 10 Useless Facts You Never Knew About Hubdub

Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

As part of our First Birthday celebrations, we thought we would amuse you with some facts you probably never knew about Hubdub…see if you can spot the one that’s not true…

Hubdub’s Birthday Logo1. Hubdubbers come from 161 countries throughout the World

2. There has been over H$1bn traded on Hubdub in the past year

3. The Hubdub logo is made up of fonts from different newspapers around the World

4. A 3 year old boy named the company

5. The original name for the site was Newsbazaar (and of course there was Gumbonews and Noodlenews…to name but a few!)

6. The co-founders come from all four nations of the UK (ok, so Wales is a principality, let’s not get nit-picky!)

7. The Category  Editors are located in three different continents

8. Three of the founding team are left-handed

9. The CEO used to be a dairy farmer (!)

10. The Hubdub office overlooks Edinburgh castle

Popularity: 11% [?]

Hubdub is One Today!

Wednesday, January 28th, 2009

hubdub-logo_bday.pngHappy Birthday Hubdub! It’s exactly one year to the day since Hubdub launched and we thought it would be fun to look back at the highs and lows of this rollercoaster year!

We’d like to thank you all for making Hubdub what it is today, and particularly those of you who have stuck around since last January to realise just what a journey it’s been! If any of you have sweet Hubdub memories from the Wild West days, then leave your comment below – we’d love to hear them!

January 2008

We launched at Demo on January 28th – the journalists loved it and we had 20,000 visits on our first day :-) Of course our servers crashed :-(

February 2008
We thought it might be nice to chat to some of our lovely new Hubdubbers so we introduced Friends (shortly followed by shouts). We’d never been so popular before…

Oh, and we realised it might be a good idea to have some Hubdub rules. It was to be the beginning of the end of Hubdub’s Wild West…

March 2008
Governor Spitzer resigned. Well, technically he announced that he was going to resign. And Hubdub had it’s first Hoo Haa. Was it or was it not a resignation? The “Spitzer rule” was added to the Big Book of Rules.

April 2008
Users started to try to “game” the system and the first banning occurred after the first official Hubdub protest strike! Satyaki was no more.

May 2008
Super Users were introduced and came with their newly found Super Powers to the aid of the overworked (and under-paid!) Category Editors. Hubdub was a better place!

June 2008
The first Hubdub millionaire was created – crudsy reached the giddy heights of 7 figure Hubbucks, much to everyone’s amazement.

Meanwhile, we launched Punditwatch – to track the predictions made by some of the more prominent bloggers in business, technology and entertainment. The pundits were horrified to see how badly they’d done!

And there was a small matter of a Democratic nomination.

July 2008
We announced our first official partnership - with Reuters. (and we felt all grown up!)

August 2008
August was all about the Olympics. Hubdub’s Olympic Prediction Center reached the front page of digg.com and had the predicted effect. And the servers didn’t crash :-)

September 2008
We partnered with The Huffington Post (woo hoo!) and The UK Independent (they had faith that our UK users would come…). The excitement was almost too much!

October 2008
The October surprise wasn’t too surprising to Hubdubbers - we correctly predicted the Dow Jones tumble.

To cheer everyone up from the economic gloom, Hubdub introduced Forums and the debates were fierce!

November 2008
Election fever prevailed – and Hubdubbers accurately predicted the Electoral College votes split (apart from that pesky Nebraska one!)

We launched Hubdub in the UK (and had the predictable football vs soccer debate!).

December 2008
Users were seeing stars…when we introduced star levels and a new-look dashboard. Becoming a Hubdub God become a genuine life goal.

We launched our Newspundits blog and the annual Newspundits awards.

January 2009
We rounded the year off on a high when we  announced our Series A funding and all took a deep breath…ready for Year 2….bring it on!

Popularity: 9% [?]

Despite Tough Economic Climate, Hubdub Raises Series A Funding

Wednesday, January 14th, 2009

We’re delighted to announce that we’ve successfully raised our first round of venture capital funding. It’s been a tough climate out there, I’m sure you’ll all agree (we pitched the day Lehman Bros went bust!) but we’re very excited to now be able to focus all our energies on improving and growing Hubdub even more. We want to thank you all for making Hubdub what it is today, and hope you’ll join us all on this next part of the Hubdub journey. It’s going to be awesome! Here’s the Press Release that we issued today:

Edinburgh, January 14th, 2009 - Daily reports of dire economic circumstances have not prevented , Hubdub.com, the Scottish-based web start-up, from securing £810,000 ($1.2m) in Series A funding.
In a downturn, more people stay at home and look for cheap entertainment. And that can only be a good thing for Hubdub – a website which allows users to predict the outcome of news events by staking virtual cash on the results.

In these difficult times, raising series A funding is indeed a feat in itself. But Hubdub has also successfully brought on board some big hitters in the European web scene.

Led by Pentech Ventures, the UK’s leading software VC company and Scottish Enterprise’s Scottish Co-Investment Fund, funding is also backed by a group of angel investors, including Rikki Tahta, CEO of Covestor.com; Simon Murdoch, CEO of friendsabroad.com and Tim Jackson, founder of QXL.com.

Since launching last year, Edinburgh-based Hubdub has garnered a substantial and loyal following. With a quarter of million unique visitors trading around 100,000 predictions per month, Hubdub has altered the way news is being discovered and interacted with. Some users are spending several hours a day on the site, with many of them confessing to a definite Hubdub “addiction”.

Currently partnered with Reuters, The Independent and Huffington Post, Hubdub will now focus on growing its partnership base and developing functionality to allow media partners to carry Hubdub prediction markets on their site. With each user generating hundreds of page impressions per month Hubdub technology is delivering social media type engagement to regular news content.

Marc Moens from Pentech says, “The news industry is currently seeing a structural change to their business. While off-line ad revenues are slumping, news media companies are aiming to build web businesses with significant user engagement. We see Hubdub as a key enabler for media companies to build that engagement around their content.” Marc Moens will be joining Hubdub’s board.

Andrew Sloane, Senior Investment Manager at Scottish Enterprise Investments, added: “This is an exciting investment for Scottish Enterprise, as it represents our first venture in prediction markets technology. This sector is still in its early stages, however we see considerable scope for expansion and development, and are confident that Hubdub has the capability to capitalise on these opportunities. We are delighted to be able to support such an innovative Scottish company alongside our partner Pentech Ventures”

Popularity: 9% [?]

Hubdub Buzz This Week

Tuesday, January 13th, 2009

FT.com

2008 - You Read it Here First! (January 7th 2009)

Hubdub.com, a news prediction site, has been comparing the predictions for 2008 made by assorted media organisations - and awarded the FT’s “crack corp of pundits” top marks. More…

journalismcouk.bmp

News Pundit Winners: who got it most right and most wrong? (January 7th 2009)

So, at the end of beginning of each year, the news pundits predict what’s new and what’s hot for the 12 months ahead, but who then holds them to account? News prediction site Hubdub took a look at the end of 2007/beginning of 2008 predictions made by news pundits for the year ahead. Which journalists and bloggers were right and which were wrong? And who got it most wrong and took away the illustrious prize of wooden spoon? More… 

Popularity: 7% [?]

Homepage tweaks

Thursday, January 8th, 2009

Since Hubdub launched we’ve tried to continually improve the homepage (check out this blast from the past). So, based on recent feedback from various sources we’ve made some further refinements. We’ve tried to:

  • Highlight the explanation of what Hubdub is for new users by making use of more colour
  • Reduce clutter by dropping featured questions, reducing the size of the tag cloud and removing the paging from the top of the question list (it is still shown at the bottom)
  • Highlight activity of existing users by moving the “Latest activity” box up on the right hand side and enlarging the stats on live predictions and open questions
  • Encourage predictions and demonstrate the concept better by featuring a single question at the top of the homepage and category pages with prediction buttons
  • Give credibility with a quote from The Independent
  • Highlight current hot topics for easy access via “Popular now” links.

We hope you think these changes make Hubdub easier to use and understand - let us know your thoughts in the forums.

Popularity: 6% [?]

Hubdub Buzz This Week

Tuesday, January 6th, 2009

Guardian logo

What’s Your and Mine is Ours (Monday January 5th 2009)

…The good news is the consensus, particularly among those who survived the 2001 dotcom crash, that a downturn can be an opportunity for the most agile, intelligent start-ups to prove themselves. “There were lots of awful parties in 2000 that were really for the business development guys,” says Nigel Eccles, co-founder of the news start-up Hubdub. “But it’s the technology that’s cool, not the exits.  More…

Popularity: 6% [?]

Change of Direction for this Blog

Tuesday, January 6th, 2009

NewspunditsBefore the holidays, we announced the arrival of Hubdub’s latest blog - Newspundits - which offers analysis and predictions on current news stories written by Hubdub staff and Hubdubbers who have proven they’re an expert in the topic.

The blog you’re reading right now will be kept for company announcements, new features, press coverage and other corporate-type information. Hubdub’s weekly Hot Predictions for example, will now be published on Newspundits rather than here.

So, if you’re reading this by RSS feed, then you might want to also sign up for Newspundits.hubdub.com so you will continue to receive both editorial and corporate information from Hubdub.

If you have any feedback on either blog, I’d love to hear it. Drop me an email with your comments. (lesley at hubdub dot com).

Popularity: 5% [?]

Hubdub is Hiring!

Monday, January 5th, 2009

HiringThe questions on Hubdub are monitored, edited where necessary and settled by a fantastic team of Category Editors based all around the World. Each Hubdub category (Sports, Entertainment, Business, Politics etc) has it’s own Editor who is extremely knowledgeable in that particular topic.

We’re currently looking for a new Category Editor to join the team to help manage the World Category (so a keen interest and knowledge of international news and politics is vital - as well as a fundamental love of all things Hubdub!).

For more information about the role, click here.

If you think you’re smart/patient/nice enough to join the team drop me an email - I’d love to hear from you.

Popularity: 5% [?]

Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week

Monday, December 29th, 2008

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

Happy New Year!

2008 has been a pretty good year, well besides the economy tanking and all that jazz. Even with the crap economy though people still have to celebrate, right? Their last big opportunity is going to be the New Year’s Eve celebrations all around the world. So who will have the biggest party? Hubdub forecasts New York City has a 42% chance.

Which location will have the biggest New Year’s Eve party?

Economy

If you google predictions on the economy for 09, you’ll be lucky to find one that isn’t forecasting financial Armageddon. In November the US lost over 500,000 jobs, for January 09 the outlook isn’t as bad but still pretty dismal with Hubdub predicting by over 60% that the US loses less than 500,00 jobs.

How many jobs will the USA shed in January 2009?

Politics
Some lucky criminals out there will get a very generous gift this new year. Clinton gave out 456 and although one Bush pardon has already been rescinded, Hubdubbers still think Bush will issue over 200 pardons before he exits.

How many pardons will George W. Bush issue before he leaves office?

World

In the Middle East bringing in the new year doesn’t seem to be one of the most festive celebrations. Over 300 have already been killed in the newest ’skirmish’ between Israel and Hamas, and it doesn’t look like the killing will stop just yet. A full on ground invasion hasn’t yet occurred but Hubdub forecasts one happening in the closing days of 2008.

Will Israel invade Gaza in 2008?

Sports

The Rose Bowl is coming! This new years day Penn State is pitched against USC in the Rose Bowl for what should be an epic game. The odds are getting closer as game day approaches but USC still has Hubdub’s backing with a 55% chance of winning the Rose Bowl.

Rose Bowl Game - Penn State vs USC - Who will win?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

 

* The Hubdub Hot Predictions This Week will be moving place next week to Hubdub’s recently opened newspundits blog, located here. Happy new year to everyone and see you there.

Popularity: 9% [?]