So you’ve watched Selection Sunday, you know the seeds, now you can really start playing our March Madness 09 Predict-a-thon - seriously!
There have been some interesting seedings and draws today, including #8 LSU v #9 Butler and
If you haven’t already signed up for a Predict-a-thon account, there’s no time to waste! Sign up now while there’s still bargains to be had!
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Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
The Blagojevich Problem
Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich got himself into a little trouble last week after trying to sell Barack Obama’s Senate seat. Almost everyone is calling for Blagojevich’s head on a plate, but the defiant and quite corrupt Governor is standing his ground. Hubdub gives Blagojevich resigning a over 70% chance, we also forecast resignation by December 21st.
Will Gov. Rod Blagojevich resign?
Rod Blagojevich missed his shot at naming Obama’s Senate successor. So who or what will decide who’s filling Obama’s vacant seat? By 49% Hubdub forecasts Illinois will call a special election.
Who will name Obama’s replacement?
Business
The big three Detroit auto makers failed to get a bailout fund from the Congress last week, but what should happen to those who were at the reins of the big three? General Motors CEO Richard Wagoner, seems the first likely target, especially when Congress is suggesting he get the boot. According to Hubdub though Wagoner only has a 31% chance of removal.
Will GM CEO Richard Wagoner step down or be fired before the end of 2008?
The Box Office
Kenau Reeves did quite good in the box office last weekend. Although this weekend three new movies premier, including Will Smith’s drama, Seven Pounds. For now Hubdub thinks Seven Pounds will be in the top spot this weekend, with Jim Carrey’s Yes Man only having a 33% chance of raking in the most cash.
What will be the #1 film this weekend? 
The NFL
On December 21st the Panthers play the Giants. As the season ends both teams are hoping for a good showing. With home field advantage the Giants are the current favorites. What’s better is this market, dubbed ‘IN PLAY’ won’t be suspended during most of the game, so users can forecast who’ll win while the games on!
NFL - (IN PLAY) - Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants. Who will win on Dec 21st?
Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.
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Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
World News
The Mumbai terror attacks exacted a heavy toll on Indians and foreigners alike, but who was behind it? Initial intelligence is pointing to Pakistani ISI involvement and the terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taib. Could the terror attacks though be the work of elements from Al Qaeda? Hubdub predicts the chances of Al Qaeda involvement are above 40%.
Will the Nov 26 Mumbai terrorist attacks be connected to al Qaeda by the end of 2008?
Thailand’s been in a state of political upheaval for many months and arguably years. This political unrest though only now seems to be gaining worldwide attention. Protesters have seized Thailand’s main airports effectively shutting down Thailand’s main international artery. In the last day Hubdub forecasts have spiked. We now forecast by 65% that Thailand’s main international airport won’t be reopened by Sunday 7 December.
When will Thailand’s international airport be reopened? 
Entertainment
Axl Rose from Guns N’ Roses is upset. So he’s doing what all rich rock stars do when they’re upset, making ridiculous demands. Due to a snafu in advertising he’s demanding Dr. Pepper take out a full-page apology in The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today and The Wall Street Journal. Likeliness that it will happen? 15%.
Will Dr Pepper apologize to Axl?
Sports
The South Eastern Conference championship kicks off this week, and it’s garnering allot of attention on Hubdub. There’s already H$22,492 on it! This year it’s the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. the Florida Gators, and Hubdub forecasts a win by the Gators, giving them a tight but healthy 54% chance.
SEC Championship Game - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators - Who will win?
General News
Often times you hear of stampedes happening in India or other less developed areas of the world. But if you thought for any second that human nature changes when living in a developed nation, you’d be wrong. Westerner’s are just as screwed up as everyone else. Evidenced by the shocking death of Jdimytai Damour a Wal-mart employee who was trampled to death by Long Island shoppers last week. Hubdub gives Jdimytai’s family a 80% chance of filing suit against Wal-mart.
Will the family of Jdimytai Damour file a lawsuit against Wall-Mart ?
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Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.
2008 Election Over?
Some are saying it’s already over and packing their bags, but is it? McCain has many obstacles to surmount in the next week, but John has comeback from the dead before. Endorsements from party faithfuls like Colin Powell don’t help though. Currently Hubdub forecasts McCain has less than a 15% chance of winning.
Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?
Pundits are saying November 4th is shaping up to be a landslide win for Obama. This election could still get very, very tight though, and in the end it’s all about the electoral votes. For now Hubdub users disagree with pundits and predict a narrow election by just 45 Electoral Votes or less.
ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?
North Carolina’s known for being a staunch GOP state. In the Dem. primaries Obama won the state, but for the summer McCain was in the lead by double digits. As the economy nears the edge of recession though it seems North Carolina may switch sides. Even now by over 60% Hubdub forecasts Obama grabs the state.
Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?
Barack Obama has purchased 30 minutes of primetime TV on October 29th to address the nation. This will be Obama’s last chance to ’seal the deal.’ But how many people will be watching? Hubdub users think 50 million or more.
How many people will watch Barack Obama’s primetime address on 10/29?
Odd Stuff
Some might think Rock, Paper, Scissors is just a kids game but this stuff is hardcore! There’s even a World Championship in Toronto on the 25th. As to what will be the winning play rock, paper or scissors even Hubdub’s unsure just yet.
Rock Paper Scissors-What will be the winning final “throw” @ 2008 Int’l Championships? 
Sports
It’s World Series time, and although the elections and economy might be getting the most attention, sports fans are going crazy. This year we have the Philadelphia Phillies facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays. By tight margins Hubdub users are forecasting a win by the Rays, but the Phillies aren’t pushovers. Good luck to both teams!
MLB World Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays - Series Outcome?
World News
Thailand’s in the midst of a political crisis right now. The first two prime ministers have gone rather quickly and now just a month into the job the thirds tenure is looking shaky. Hubdubbers predict the third prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is gone by November.
When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?
The Internet
Reddit is one of the most well known social media sites on the web, although we at Hubdub like to think we’re pretty popular too. In September Reddit brought in 3,300,327 unique visitors. Can they top that result by getting over 5 million unique hits before 2009? Less than 30% of Hubdubbers say yes.
Will Reddit.com reach 5 million Unique Visitors - Monthly in 2008?
Financial Meltdown
We’ve been through turbulent times these last weeks. The markets have gone up and up and then teetered off a cliff into a pack of ravenous wolves. Are we through the worst of it? Will we have anymore big swings in the Dow during October? Hubdub says don’t hold your breath it ain’t over yet!
How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?
Everyone likes to think that American money is American money. We’re in a interdependent world though, where one thing effects another. We’re also a country in tons of debt, who has all of our debt? Japan, but China’s catching up. By March 2009 Hubdubbers still forecast Japan holds the most American debt.
Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)
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This continues my blog about the Summer Games for dabblers. Make a small bet on one of these markets and you’ll be amazed at how much more fun you find the games!
Traditionally, the most popular Olympic events in the US are track and field – and its no coincidence that we tend to excel in many of the events. However, the recent doping scandals involving former superstars like Marion Jones has cast a pall over the sport. As usual, the US will field a strong team this year but there are few well known athletes this time around.
Tyson Gay – America’s fastest man, Tyson Gay was expected to medal in both the 100m and 200m dash at the Beijing Olympics with a good shot double gold but a shocking cramp during the Olympic trials last month left him qualifying only for the 100m dash. He ran a wind aided 9.68 seconds, the fastest time ever recorded for the 100m and will remain a force to be reckoned with between the 100m and 4×100 relay, but the video of the cramp will likely be shown over and over (and over and over) anytime an Olympic announcer mentions his name.
Will Tyson Gay win any gold medals at the Beijing Olympics?
100m dash – Possibly the most anticipated (and hyped) match up of the Olympic games: three amazing athletes in the marquee event of the games. Jamaican teammates Asafa Powell, Usain Bolt and the USA’s Tyson Gay all hold valid claims to the title of Worlds Fastest Man and now they will go head to head. Powell has held the record for quite some time, only to have it snatched away by Bolt at the end of May. Tyson Gay, of course, has recently run the fastest time ever recorded for the 100m dash, a wind-aided 9.68 seconds. No matter who wins, there’s a definite chance the world record will fall again when these three men face each other in the finals on August 16th.
Will the 100m men’s world record in running be broken in the beijing olympics? 
Liu Xiang - A relative unknown, Xiang shocked the world when he won the 110 hurdles in Athens. He was the first Chinese sprint gold medalist and has since become a mega-superstar in China (his legs are insured for over 13 million dollars!). But just to add to the drama, Cuban Dayron Robles broke Xiang’s two year old world record last month, so its clear he will have some heavy competition with the hopes of over a billion people resting on him (no pressure!). In fact many in China have said that this medal is the most important. (Finals are on August 21st)
Will China’s Liu Xiang win the 110m hurdles at the Olympics?
Track and Field Olympic Schedule
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The start of the Olympics is just around the corner and the world is holding its breath…or at least I am. There are so many stories that come out of the Olympic games that sometimes it is hard to keep up with them all. I’ll be sending out a couple blogs over the next week in the hopes of getting you prepared (and excited!) for the Beijing Olympics. Prediction markets are a great way to feel involved in the games and I’ve included some relevant markets to get you started.
This Olympics is all about the eights with the Opening Ceremonies at 8pm on 8/8/8, so it seems fitting that my first post be 8 days prior! Here are a couple of the stories I’ll be following this month:
The Medal Tally: The US has won the most gold medals in the past 3 Olympics. They beat China by 4 gold medals in Athens (39 medals overall) but now China is on its home turf. China’s pride is heavily invested in these games and they have been working hard to stack the deck in their favor. Although the US will likely continue to dominate in Athletics and Swimming, China has a good chance to sweep Diving, Table Tennis, Rowing and Sailing. It should be a very close race although Hubdub is currently favoring China nearly 2:1.
Pollution: Since the moment China was announced as the 2008 hosts, there have been concerns about the effect of Beijing’s pollution on the games. Beijing’s’ thick, dense smog does not sit well with thousands of premier athletes attempting amazing feats of strength and skill. Although Beijing has made some major inroads in their pollution by reducing vehicle traffic and shutting down coal plants, the city has been shrouded in gray for the past several days. Officials remain hopeful that shifting winds, further reductions in emissions and new cloud seeding technology will clear the skies for the events, but it remains a major concern. In fact, to lessen their exposure to the noxious air, many athletes are choosing to skip the Opening Ceremonies entirely and remain in nearby Japan and Korea until their events.
Human Rights: These games are China’s entry onto the world stage. More than anything, they want to be seen as civilized, powerful and a legitimate superpower. However, the torch relay was marred this year by continued protests of China’s human right’s violations and another flare up in Tibet caused further bad press just when the Chinese wanted it least. It remains to be seen how prominently boycotts and protests will play in these games.
Next up: Track and Field!
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Reports that Federal prosecutors have unveiled a revamped indictment against Barry Bonds were a timely reminder that the home run leader still exists and is still unemployed.
Like I have said before, it saddens me that Bonds remains jobless. We are being deprived of a great story and the controversy/pantomime that a Bonds return would undoubtedly entail.
So what are the chances that I will get my wish and when is it likely to happen?
Hubdub says “unlikely” with “No” at 70%. This percentage looks likely to trickle up over the next two months in the absence of any rumored interest in Bonds in the short term.
Will Barry Bonds play professional baseball in 2008?
This surprises me. Hubdub puts Bonds playing in the Major Leagues in 2008 at 55% as of May 15th. I would imagine that the logic underlying this percentage is that some contending team looking for offensive help will ignore the federal indictments and the distractions and offer Bonds a job.
But 50-50? I for one hope so, but at those odds, I’d opt for No.
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It, Man Utd vs Chelsea, the Manchester Reds vs Chelski or the USA vs Russia (the Glazers vs Abramovich, if you haven’t yet got the basis of the analogy). Its the Cold War version 2.0; played out in England. And with only the Champions League final left to go in the 2007/2008 season, the next stage of the arms race will soon begin.
The upper hand in this Cold War is currently with the Reds (thats ironic). Their recent success can be attributed to greatly improved performances from weapons which where initially deemed unworthy of the price paid for them. (Carrick, Vidic, Evra, even Ronaldo) and the continuing effectiveness of old reliables (Giggs and Scholes). Meanwhile Chelskis recent history of purchasing high priced but ultimately ineffectual weapons (Ballack, Shevchenko and Malouda) has put them on the back foot.
The Russians are unlikely to take this lying down however. Backed by seemingly limitless finances, they seem set to completely overhaul their arsenal (nothing to do with the Arsenal, the football club) during the summer. The Americans will be looking build on their success by strengthening areas of weakness and preparing for the inevitable decline of the old reliables.
Reports abound over the intentions of these two superpowers and with a major Eurpoean arms expo, Euro 2008 only a few weeks away, these reports will surely intensify.
Hubdub is the place to predict if these rumours come to fruition. I’ve have created a number of markets on the basis of reports that have surfaced in the past few days. See what you think of my starting percentages.
Who will Dimitar Berbatov be playing for at the start of the 2008/2009 season?
Will Manchester Utd sign Michael Owen before the start of the 2008/2009 season?
Will Chelsea sign David Villa before the start of the 2008/2009 season?
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A few weeks ago, I proclaimed that an MVP award would signal the redemption of Kobe Bryant. It would also top off a great story: the transformation of a me-first superstar into a mature, team oriented leader who inspired his team to best record in the Western Conference.
But last Sunday night against the Jazz, Kobe seemed to forget the script of this epic tale of redemption; going it alone in overtime as the Lakers lost 115-123 to tie the playoff series at 2-2.
So will Kobe’s regression to old ways continue and will this lead to defeat in Game 5 against the Jazz? Hubdub puts a Lakers loss at 40%. Disagree? Make your predictions here!
NBA Playoffs- Utah Jazz at LA Lakers- Who will win on 5/14/2008?
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In 2007, Ken Griffey Junior stated a desire to one day return to Seattle, the team he began his career with. He repeated these sentiments last week in an interview with USA today. This and comments by Seattle Mariners president Chuck Armstrong instigated much speculation that a trade may be in the works:
“I think everyone in Seattle would like to see him retire in a Mariners uniform. He was born a Mariner, and I’d like to see him finish up as a Mariner.”
How this scenario would play out though, has been clouded by Junior’s more recent reference to the retirement of Emmitt Smith and the tokenistic one day contract he signed with Dallas in order to (nominally) retire a Cowboy.
But surely, at this stage of his career, Junior would rather play for the Mariners who are more likely to contend now and in the short term than the Reds. And surely “everyone in Seattle who would like to seem him retire in a Mariners uniform” would rather see him wear it for a year or more in the outfield at Safeco Field than for one day at a press conference.
I think there is a better chance of this trade occurring this year than what Griffey is letting on. I’ll put it at 35%. Disagree? Then make your prediction here!
Will Ken Griffey Jnr be traded to the Seattle Mariners before the 2008 trade deadline?
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