This continues my blog about the Summer Games for dabblers. Make a small bet on one of these markets and you’ll be amazed at how much more fun you find the games!

Traditionally, the most popular Olympic events in the US are track and field – and its no coincidence that we tend to excel in many of the events. However, the recent doping scandals involving former superstars like Marion Jones has cast a pall over the sport.  As usual, the US will field a strong team this year but there are few well known athletes this time around.

Tyson Gay – America’s fastest man, Tyson Gay was expected to medal in both the 100m and 200m dash at the Beijing Olympics with a good shot double gold but a shocking cramp during the Olympic trials last month left him qualifying only for the 100m dash. He ran a wind aided 9.68 seconds, the fastest time ever recorded for the 100m and will remain a force to be reckoned with between the 100m and 4×100 relay, but the video of the cramp will likely be shown over and over (and over and over) anytime an Olympic announcer mentions his name.

Will Tyson Gay win any gold medals at the Beijing Olympics?

100m dash – Possibly the most anticipated (and hyped) match up of the Olympic games: three amazing athletes in the marquee event of the games. Jamaican teammates Asafa Powell, Usain Bolt and the USA’s Tyson Gay all hold valid claims to the title of Worlds Fastest Man and now they will go head to head. Powell has held the record for quite some time, only to have it snatched away by Bolt at the end of May.  Tyson Gay, of course, has recently run the fastest time ever recorded for the 100m dash, a wind-aided 9.68 seconds. No matter who wins, there’s a definite chance the world record will fall again when these three men face each other in the finals on August 16th.

Will the 100m men’s world record in running be broken in the beijing olympics?

Liu Xiang - A relative unknown, Xiang shocked the world when he won the 110 hurdles in Athens. He was the first Chinese sprint gold medalist and has since become a mega-superstar in China (his legs are insured for over 13 million dollars!). But just to add to the drama, Cuban Dayron Robles broke Xiang’s two year old world record last month, so its clear he will have some heavy competition with the hopes of over a billion people resting on him (no pressure!). In fact many in China have said that this medal is the most important. (Finals are on August 21st)

Will China’s Liu Xiang win the 110m hurdles at the Olympics?

More track and field questions

Track and Field Olympic Schedule

Popularity: 7% [?]

The start of the Olympics is just around the corner and the world is holding its breath…or at least I am.  There are so many stories that come out of the Olympic games that sometimes it is hard to keep up with them all. I’ll be sending out a couple blogs over the next week in the hopes of getting you prepared (and excited!) for the Beijing Olympics. Prediction markets are a great way to feel involved in the games and I’ve included some relevant markets to get you started.

 This Olympics is all about the eights with the Opening Ceremonies at 8pm on 8/8/8, so it seems fitting that my first post be 8 days prior! Here are a couple of the stories I’ll be following this month:

The Medal Tally:  The US has won the most gold medals in the past 3 Olympics. They beat China by 4 gold medals in Athens (39 medals overall) but now China is on its home turf. China’s pride is heavily invested in these games and they have been working hard to stack the deck in their favor. Although the US will likely continue to dominate in Athletics and Swimming, China has a good chance to sweep Diving, Table Tennis, Rowing and Sailing. It should be a very close race although Hubdub is currently favoring China nearly 2:1.

Bet on it     Read more

Pollution:  Since the moment China was announced as the 2008 hosts,  there have been concerns about the effect of Beijing’s pollution on the games.  Beijing’s’ thick, dense smog does not sit well with thousands of premier athletes attempting amazing feats of strength and skill. Although Beijing has made some major inroads in their pollution by reducing vehicle traffic and shutting down coal plants, the city has been shrouded in gray for the past several days. Officials remain hopeful that shifting winds,  further reductions in emissions and new cloud seeding technology will clear the skies for the events, but it remains a major concern.  In fact, to lessen their exposure to the noxious air, many athletes are choosing to skip the Opening Ceremonies entirely and remain in nearby Japan and Korea until their events.

Bet on it     Read more

Human Rights: These games are China’s entry onto the world stage. More than anything, they want to be seen as civilized, powerful and a legitimate superpower.  However, the torch relay was marred this year by continued protests of China’s human right’s violations and another flare up in Tibet caused further bad press just when the Chinese wanted it least. It remains to be seen how prominently boycotts and protests will play in these games.

Bet on it     Read more

More Olympics questions

Next up: Track and Field!

Popularity: 5% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

Reports that Federal prosecutors have unveiled a revamped indictment against Barry Bonds were a timely reminder that the home run leader still exists and is still unemployed.

Like I have said before, it saddens me that Bonds remains jobless. We are being deprived of a great story and the controversy/pantomime that a Bonds return would undoubtedly entail.

So what are the chances that I will get my wish and when is it likely to happen?

Before the All-star Break?

Will Barry Bonds be in the starting lineup of a MLB team before the All-Star break of the 2008 season?

Hubdub says “unlikely” with “No” at 70%. This percentage looks likely to trickle up over the next two months in the absence of any rumored interest in Bonds in the short term.

At any stage in 2008?

Will Barry Bonds play professional baseball in 2008?

This surprises me. Hubdub puts Bonds playing in the Major Leagues in 2008 at 55% as of May 15th. I would imagine that the logic underlying this percentage is that some contending team looking for offensive help will ignore the federal indictments and the distractions and offer Bonds a job.

But 50-50? I for one hope so, but at those odds, I’d opt for No.

Popularity: 2% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

It, Man Utd vs Chelsea, the Manchester Reds vs Chelski or the USA vs Russia (the Glazers vs Abramovich, if you haven’t yet got the basis of the analogy). Its the Cold War version 2.0; played out in England. And with only the Champions League final left to go in the 2007/2008 season, the next stage of the arms race will soon begin.

The upper hand in this Cold War is currently with the Reds (thats ironic). Their recent success can be attributed to greatly improved performances from weapons which where initially deemed unworthy of the price paid for them. (Carrick, Vidic, Evra, even Ronaldo) and the continuing effectiveness of old reliables (Giggs and Scholes). Meanwhile Chelskis recent history of purchasing high priced but ultimately ineffectual weapons (Ballack, Shevchenko and Malouda) has put them on the back foot.

The Russians are unlikely to take this lying down however. Backed by seemingly limitless finances, they seem set to completely overhaul their arsenal (nothing to do with the Arsenal, the football club) during the summer. The Americans will be looking build on their success by strengthening areas of weakness and preparing for the inevitable decline of the old reliables.

Reports abound over the intentions of these two superpowers and with a major Eurpoean arms expo, Euro 2008 only a few weeks away, these reports will surely intensify.

Hubdub is the place to predict if these rumours come to fruition. I’ve have created a number of markets on the basis of reports that have surfaced in the past few days. See what you think of my starting percentages.

Who will Dimitar Berbatov be playing for at the start of the 2008/2009 season?

Will Manchester Utd sign Michael Owen before the start of the 2008/2009 season?

Will Chelsea sign David Villa before the start of the 2008/2009 season?

Popularity: 3% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

A few weeks ago, I proclaimed that an MVP award would signal the redemption of Kobe Bryant. It would also top off a great story: the transformation of a me-first superstar into a mature, team oriented leader who inspired his team to best record in the Western Conference.

….and so it came to pass.

But last Sunday night against the Jazz, Kobe seemed to forget the script of this epic tale of redemption; going it alone in overtime as the Lakers lost 115-123 to tie the playoff series at 2-2.

So will Kobe’s regression to old ways continue and will this lead to defeat in Game 5 against  the Jazz? Hubdub puts a Lakers loss at 40%. Disagree? Make your predictions here!

NBA Playoffs- Utah Jazz at LA Lakers- Who will win on 5/14/2008?

Popularity: 3% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

In 2007, Ken Griffey Junior stated a desire to one day return to Seattle, the team he began his career with. He repeated these sentiments last week in an interview with USA today. This and comments by Seattle Mariners president Chuck Armstrong instigated much speculation that a trade may be in the works:

“I think everyone in Seattle would like to see him retire in a Mariners uniform. He was born a Mariner, and I’d like to see him finish up as a Mariner.”

How this scenario would play out though, has been clouded by Junior’s more recent reference to the retirement of Emmitt Smith and the tokenistic one day contract he signed with Dallas in order to (nominally) retire a Cowboy.

But surely, at this stage of his career, Junior would rather play for the Mariners who are more likely to contend now and in the short term than the Reds. And surely “everyone in Seattle who would like to seem him retire in a Mariners uniform” would rather see him wear it for a year or more in the outfield at Safeco Field than for one day at a press conference.

I think there is a better chance of this trade occurring this year than what Griffey is letting on. I’ll put it at 35%. Disagree? Then make your prediction here!

Will Ken Griffey Jnr be traded to the Seattle Mariners before the 2008 trade deadline?

Popularity: 2% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

Gilbert Arenas will be one of the biggest names available in the NBAs 2008 free agent market but the Wizards want to keep him.

Wizards President Eddie Grunfeld stated summer priorities are to retain Agent Zero and Antwawn Jamison who would appear to be a package deal following Arena’s statement on his blog that he won’t return unless Jamison is re-signed.

On the face of it, the Wizards priorities would appear to make sense. They want to keep intact the trifecta of Arenas, Jamison and Butler who have led them to three successive playoff appearances and keep fans in seats at the Verizon Center.

But it must also be remembered that this “big three” has failed to progress the Wizards past the first round of the playoffs. They have twice been conquered by Lebron James and they certainly don’t match the luster of Boston’s big three or Detroit’s biggish four or five.

Is the status quo really worth maintaining when its good but not great?

Will the Washington Wizards re-sign Gilbert Arenas?

Popularity: 2% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

Tomorrow at approximately 3:10pm eastern, a red(ish) haired man in a suit will walk up to a podium and call out a football team and a persons name. Ten minutes later, he will do the same thing. Ten minutes after that, the same again….and so on and on throughout the evening.

I can barely contain my excitement. Seriously

The 2008 NFL draft looks like it could be one of the most unpredictable drafts in years. All we know for certain is that Bill Parcells did not take my advice. Beyond that, its anyones guess. Or given that this is Hubdub, anyones prediction.

Now, I may have pretty funky hair, but I’m no Mel Kiper. So instead of embarrassing myself by offering up my own predictions, I’m going take a look at some of the more interesting NFL Draft questions in play right now on Hubdub and what Hubdubbers are predicting.

St Louis Rams on the clock.
The uncertainty begins with St Louis whose selection will have a big impact on how the rest of the top ten picks unfold. It looks like Glenn Dorsey versus Chris Long with Hubdubbers split on who the Rams will pick.

If the Rams select Glenn Dorsey, they could also be sending Matt Ryan to Atlanta and Chris Long out of the top five. Opting for Chris Long would probably result in Dorsey going to Atlanta and things getting rather interesting and uncertain for Matt Ryan.

Who will the St. Louis Rams choose as their first draft choice of 2008?

The other Long.
Howie’s boy was once thought of as a potential first overall pick. With that honor (or curse) now bestowed upon the other Long, there is a chance that Chris Long may not even be drafted in the top 5 if both St Louis and Atlanta pass on him. Hubdubbers however seem confident (overly confident if you ask me)that the Virginia DE will be spared that indignation.

NFL - Will Chris Long be drafted in the top five (5) of the NFL draft in 2008?

Darren McFadden
Darren McFadden is probably the most interesting player at the top of the draft for a number of reasons.

For many, he is the most talented player in the 2008 class, but he plays in a position where year on year, better value is found in later rounds. Add to that the alleged character issues and the fact that many mock drafts and Hubdub users are predicting that he will be selected by Oakland, who are stacked at running back; and you have a pretty intriguing draft story-line.

What team will pick Darren McFadden?

Quarterbacks, Quarterbacks, Quarterbacks!!
Increasingly Quarterbacks are what the NFL is all about. After Steve McNairs retirement, my beloved Ravens are in need of a QB (when aren’t they?), but Hubdubbers are predicting (marginally, I might add) that they won’t draft one in the first round.

Will the Baltimore Ravens draft a Quarterback in the first round of the 2008 draft?

It all begins with Matt Ryan whose future looks very much up in the air. Atlanta is the destination favored on Hubdub. But Hubdubbers could be wrong on two counts if Ryan were to be drafted by the Ravens (a prospect I would have very mixed feelings about)

Which team will draft Matt Ryan?

But Matt Ryan may not be the only QB drafted in round one. This years late first or early second round QB pool is quite crowded and there may well be some jostling for position amongst the teams that passed on Ryan, to pick up one of Misters Brohm, Flacco or Henne.

Who will be the second Quarterback selected in the NFL Draft?

How many quarterbacks will be picked in the first round of the NFL draft this weekend?

Some other Questions
For good measure….

Will Miami’s Jason Taylor be traded before this weekend’s NFL draft?

Will Vernon Gholston be a top-5 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft?

Which of the players invited to attend the NFL Draft will be last to be selected?

What kind of player will the Washington Redskins draft with their first pick in the first round of this year’s NFL draft?

There isn’ t much time left, so get on Hubdub (join if necessary), make your predictions and try and prove yourself to be the next Mel Kiper (funky hair or not).

Popularity: 5% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

Whenever there isn’t a consensus choice for the MVP award in a major American sport, much contemplation ensues over what exactly the title “Most Valuable” means and how it should be bestowed. With the NBA MVP debate raging, I could conceivably rattle off a few paragraphs on my own particular interpretation of the term.

But, I won’t …………and for two reasons:

1. MVP should mean whatever one wants it to mean (within reason)

MVP could mean the player who:

• has been the catalyst for a dramatic turnaround in his teams fortunes (Garnett).
• is transcendently talented, leads the league in scoring and carries his team almost single-handedly, in a spectacular fashion (LeBron).
• is the best all round player in the league, has had an another great season in an outstanding MVP-less career and its about time he won (Kobe).
• is the best player on the team with the best record in the superior conference and who is generally an outstanding candidate in terms of stats, leadership and importance to his team (Chris Paul).

Every year presents different circumstances and reasons for a particular MVP selection. As long as the reason is good (and I don’t count whoever voted for Brett Favre this year as having one), I’m not particularly bothered by which way any voter goes. Besides, if there was a strict definition of criteria for an MVP, it would make choosing one a lot less interesting.

2. This is Hubdub.

Ultimately we at Hubdub are more interested in the “Who will win?” as opposed to the “Who should win and why?”. As I write, Hubdubbers seem to prefer Chis Paul (although thats liable to change).

I will say however why I would vote for Kobe Bryant.

Yes, he has had an outstanding season and after an 11 year career its about time he won. But besides that; five years removed since the sexual assault accusations, 4 years after he had a major hand in the departure from LA of Phil Jackson and Shaq, and almost a year after his trade request, the MVP award would represent, for this maturing and increasingly team-oriented player some degree of redemption….

and redemption is always a good story.

Predict who will be named NBA MVP

Popularity: 3% [?]

By Donal (Sports Editor)

With today’s announcement of the provisional England squad for their friendly against France on March 26th, it looks like David Beckham will finally win his 100th international cap.

England fans have every reason to feel disheartened by this news.

Either Becks is going to be awarded a cheap cap so that the fuss over number 100 can be put to bed or else Fabio Capello has found the performances of David Bentley, Shaun Wright Phillips and Aaron Lennon so unconvincing, that he has resorted to selecting a a player who is well past his best and enjoying a period of well-paid semi-retirement in a Mickey Mouse league (sorry MLS fans).

The 100 cap milestone also rings rather hollow as it is hardly the crowning achievement of a distinguished international career that it should be. Sure Beckham has had his moments for England, but none of them really amounted to much; did they?.

The goal against Columbia in 1998 was the precursor to his infamous sending off against Argentina (although aftermath of that incident was probably to his commercial benefit in the long term).  The highlights of Becks international career; the free kick against Greece and the penalty against the Argies in the subsequent World Cup, were followed by his rather inglorious performance in a quarter final defeat to ten-man Brazil.

Since then, his most memorable international moments have been a few missed penalties at Euro 2004 and the tears he shed as he sat on the bench after been substituted during Englands defeat to Portugal in the 2006 World Cup.

The Beckham era hasn’t been a particularly golden one for the English national team. I see no reason why the English should feel anything but disheartened by its continuation.

Predict if Becks will in fact win his 100th Cap on March 26th

Will David Beckham play in England’s March 26 friendly against France?

Popularity: 3% [?]