At Hubdub we have many markets covering all the nuisances of the potential event. We have a market asking which bible verse his bible will be opened to:

Presidential Inauguration: What verse will Barack Obama’s Bible be open to?

We are also curious if Barack Obama will use his middle name while taking the oath of office, most Hubdubbers feel he will:

Will Barack Obama use his middle name when taking the oath of office?

One of my personal favorite markets is asking about the infamous “Yes We Can” line that began in New Hampshire, swept the country with the video by Will I AM, and was chanted at the acceptance speech on election night. Currently more than half of the Hubdubbers feel he won’t use the line at all, but I think he will, it fits his style, the American people want to be told that “Yes We Can”:

Presidential Inauguration: How many times will President Obama use the phrase “Yes We Can”?

For those of you who are going to be in the crowd during this day, we have a market right up your alley, the National Weather Service measures the temperature on Inaugural Day and we have a market asking what our Hubdubbers feel it will be, you better hope they got a good bead on this one, they are calling for a very comfortable 35degrees:

Presidential Inauguration: What will be the temperature at noon as recorded by NWS?

Another market more tuned into those of you who will be braving the weather, while the rest of us watch from the comfort of our homes or offices, is this market asking How Many Words Long will the Inauguration Speech be, again here at Hubdub we seem to feel that President Obama will carry on for more than 2250 words:

Presidential Inauguration: How many words long will President Obama’s address be?

and for those of you were were wondering here are the shortest and longest speeches - George Washington’s second address was the shortest (135 words) and William Henry Harrison delivered the longest (8,495 words).
And before we let you go, we would like to ask those in attendance to help us out if at all possible. If you see someone throw a donut at Rick Warren please notify the category editor right away so we may settle this market:

Will Mega Church leader Rick Warren have a donut thrown at him before or on Inauguration Day?

and finally if you see Tom Hanks at the Inauguration and you give him your seat, you will be helping settle a very fun but silly market:

Will Tom Hanks be given a seat at Barack Obama’s inauguration?

In a note of seriousness, please be safe, have a great time, and take alot of pictures. You may send all the pictures directly to me at destry@hubdub.com and I will share them on Picasa for everyone to see. Have a great time, enjoy your moment of history, and remember this “Now is the time to reclaim the American dream and reaffirm that fundamental truth, that, out of many, we are one; that while we breathe, we hope. And where we are met with cynicism and doubts and those who tell us that we can’t, we will respond with that timeless creed that sums up the spirit of a people: Yes, we can.”

Popularity: 14% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Blagojevich Problem

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich got himself into a little trouble last week after trying to sell Barack Obama’s Senate seat. Almost everyone is calling for Blagojevich’s head on a plate, but the defiant and quite corrupt Governor is standing his ground. Hubdub gives Blagojevich resigning a over 70% chance, we also forecast resignation by December 21st.

Will Gov. Rod Blagojevich resign?

Rod Blagojevich missed his shot at naming Obama’s Senate successor. So who or what will decide who’s filling Obama’s vacant seat? By 49% Hubdub forecasts Illinois will call a special election.

Who will name Obama’s replacement?

Business

The big three Detroit auto makers failed to get a bailout fund from the Congress last week, but what should happen to those who were at the reins of the big three? General Motors CEO Richard Wagoner, seems the first likely target, especially when Congress is suggesting he get the boot. According to Hubdub though Wagoner only has a 31% chance of removal.

Will GM CEO Richard Wagoner step down or be fired before the end of 2008?

The Box Office

Kenau Reeves did quite good in the box office last weekend. Although this weekend three new movies premier, including Will Smith’s drama, Seven Pounds. For now Hubdub thinks Seven Pounds will be in the top spot this weekend, with Jim Carrey’s Yes Man only having a 33% chance of raking in the most cash.

What will be the #1 film this weekend?

The NFL

On December 21st the Panthers play the Giants. As the season ends both teams are hoping for a good showing. With home field advantage the Giants are the current favorites. What’s better is this market, dubbed ‘IN PLAY’ won’t be suspended during most of the game, so users can forecast who’ll win while the games on!

NFL - (IN PLAY) - Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants. Who will win on Dec 21st?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Popularity: 11% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

World News

The Mumbai terror attacks exacted a heavy toll on Indians and foreigners alike, but who was behind it? Initial intelligence is pointing to Pakistani ISI involvement and the terrorist organization Lashkar-e-Taib. Could the terror attacks though be the work of elements from Al Qaeda? Hubdub predicts the chances of Al Qaeda involvement are above 40%.

Will the Nov 26 Mumbai terrorist attacks be connected to al Qaeda by the end of 2008?

Thailand’s been in a state of political upheaval for many months and arguably years. This political unrest though only now seems to be gaining worldwide attention. Protesters have seized Thailand’s main airports effectively shutting down Thailand’s main international artery. In the last day Hubdub forecasts have spiked. We now forecast by 65% that Thailand’s main international airport won’t be reopened by Sunday 7 December.

When will Thailand’s international airport be reopened?

Entertainment

Axl Rose from Guns N’ Roses is upset. So he’s doing what all rich rock stars do when they’re upset, making ridiculous demands. Due to a snafu in advertising he’s demanding Dr. Pepper take out a full-page apology in The New York Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today and The Wall Street Journal. Likeliness that it will happen? 15%.

Will Dr Pepper apologize to Axl?

Sports

The South Eastern Conference championship kicks off this week, and it’s garnering allot of attention on Hubdub. There’s already H$22,492 on it! This year it’s the Alabama Crimson Tide vs. the Florida Gators, and Hubdub forecasts a win by the Gators, giving them a tight but healthy 54% chance.

SEC Championship Game - Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida Gators - Who will win?

General News

Often times you hear of stampedes happening in India or other less developed areas of the world. But if you thought for any second that human nature changes when living in a developed nation, you’d be wrong. Westerner’s are just as screwed up as everyone else. Evidenced by the shocking death of Jdimytai Damour a Wal-mart employee who was trampled to death by Long Island shoppers last week. Hubdub gives Jdimytai’s family a 80% chance of filing suit against Wal-mart.

Will the family of Jdimytai Damour file a lawsuit against Wall-Mart ?

Popularity: 17% [?]

The election might be over, but for the politics geeks out there the fun is nowhere near done! Everyone seems to be talking about who’ll be in Obama’s cabinet, but if you’re looking for the real numbers breakdown based on the wisdom of the crowds, look no further. We’ve already correctly predicted Rahm Emanuel as Obama’s Chief of Staff!

Secretary of State: Initially many suspected John Kerry, in recent days though his stock dropped significantly (less than 20% chance now), even being overtaken by Bill Richardson at one point. Hubdub forecasts though that Obama won’t pick either Richardson or Kerry instead he’ll look for someone else, not currently known.

Who will be Obama’s Secretary of State?

Secretary of Defense: Along with others, Hubdubbers see Robert Gates, the current SecDef to be continuing his role after Bush leaves. Gate’s price is over 50% which is a good indicator, and his closest competitor is Chuck Hagel at just 16%.

Who will be President Obama’s Secretary of Defense?

Attorney General: Janet Napolitano is the front runner for Attorney General. Some rumors from the beltway even point to Napolitano being quite happy with the possibility.

Who will be President Obama’s Attorney General?

Energy Secretary: For all the Schwarzenegger fans out there I’m sorry to say, but it’s unlikely we’ll get Arnie in the cabinet to ‘terminate’ global warming. However I’ll admit it’d be awesome!

Will Arnold Schwarzenegger be President Obama’s Energy Secretary?

Treasury Secretary: Although suggestions of either Paulson staying on or Obama adviser, friend and billionaire Warren Bufftet taking Paulson’s place were intriguing, Hubdub is forecasting Federal Reserve Bank of New York President Timothy Geithner will take the spot.

Who will be the selection of a new Treasury secretary under President Obama?

Other Notable Picks According to Hubdub Markets:

• Al Gore is unlikely to be included in a formal role in the Obama administration.
• Gregory Craig has over a 50% chance of being Obama’s National Security Adviser.
• The new Obama cabinet will only have two or three Republicans in it
• Neither Colin Powell or Linda Darling-Hammond are likely candidates for Secretary of Education.

To get the most up to date forecasts on likely picks for Obama’s cabinet check out our new RSS Feeds here.

Popularity: 15% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

2008 Election Over?

Some are saying it’s already over and packing their bags, but is it? McCain has many obstacles to surmount in the next week, but John has comeback from the dead before. Endorsements from party faithfuls like Colin Powell don’t help though. Currently Hubdub forecasts McCain has less than a 15% chance of winning.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Pundits are saying November 4th is shaping up to be a landslide win for Obama. This election could still get very, very tight though, and in the end it’s all about the electoral votes. For now Hubdub users disagree with pundits and predict a narrow election by just 45 Electoral Votes or less.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

North Carolina’s known for being a staunch GOP state. In the Dem. primaries Obama won the state, but for the summer McCain was in the lead by double digits. As the economy nears the edge of recession though it seems North Carolina may switch sides. Even now by over 60% Hubdub forecasts Obama grabs the state.

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Barack Obama has purchased 30 minutes of primetime TV on October 29th to address the nation. This will be Obama’s last chance to ’seal the deal.’ But how many people will be watching? Hubdub users think 50 million or more.

How many people will watch Barack Obama’s primetime address on 10/29?

Odd Stuff

Some might think Rock, Paper, Scissors is just a kids game but this stuff is hardcore! There’s even a World Championship in Toronto on the 25th. As to what will be the winning play rock, paper or scissors even Hubdub’s unsure just yet.

Rock Paper Scissors-What will be the winning final “throw” @ 2008 Int’l Championships?

Sports

It’s World Series time, and although the elections and economy might be getting the most attention, sports fans are going crazy. This year we have the Philadelphia Phillies facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays. By tight margins Hubdub users are forecasting a win by the Rays, but the Phillies aren’t pushovers. Good luck to both teams!

MLB World Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays - Series Outcome?

World News

Thailand’s in the midst of a political crisis right now. The first two prime ministers have gone rather quickly and now just a month into the job the thirds tenure is looking shaky. Hubdubbers predict the third prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is gone by November.

When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?

The Internet

Reddit is one of the most well known social media sites on the web, although we at Hubdub like to think we’re pretty popular too. In September Reddit brought in 3,300,327 unique visitors. Can they top that result by getting over 5 million unique hits before 2009? Less than 30% of Hubdubbers say yes.

Will Reddit.com reach 5 million Unique Visitors - Monthly in 2008?

Financial Meltdown

We’ve been through turbulent times these last weeks. The markets have gone up and up and then teetered off a cliff into a pack of ravenous wolves. Are we through the worst of it? Will we have anymore big swings in the Dow during October? Hubdub says don’t hold your breath it ain’t over yet!

How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?

Everyone likes to think that American money is American money. We’re in a interdependent world though, where one thing effects another. We’re also a country in tons of debt, who has all of our debt? Japan, but China’s catching up. By March 2009 Hubdubbers still forecast Japan holds the most American debt.

Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)

Popularity: 20% [?]

I’ve been talking to a lot of people over the past couple of days about the differences between polls and a market. Of course there is a rich set of academic research showing the superiority of a liquid market over a poll. Additionally, to me it makes intuitive sense: You would never try to price a stock by polling a 100 traders.

Anyway I thought I would do a quick fun comparison between a poll and a market. We are currently running a market on who will be the most followed on Twitter by the end of June.

Cast your votes here:

Place your bets here:

what is this?

The Diggnation Army v The TWiTs: Who’ll be most followed by the end of June?

% chance over time

    Leo Laporte

    Kevin Rose

    Jason Calacanis

    Alex Albrecht

    Robert Scoble

    John C Dvorak

Get this widget

Hubdub - The News Prediction Game

Let the competition commence!

Popularity: 12% [?]

By Diana (General Category Editor)

Every now and then a news story breaks that shakes one’s faith in the integrity of the human race. How a man could rape and imprison his own daughter for twenty-four years is beyond explanation; yet, how Josef Fritzl was able to keep his horrific secret unknown for over two decades is another mystery waiting to be probed. As the days progress, more horrific details surrounding Josef Fritzl’s diabolical double life are being released.

Within the confines of a heavily secured cellar, Fritzl managed to hold his daughter Elisabeth hostage since 1984, fathering seven children with her in his subterranean bunker while leading a conspicuously different life above ground in Amstetten. At this point in the investigation, it is believed that the 73-year-old Austrian exclusively held the cellar’s many keys and codes and neither his wife Rosemarie nor his other children knew of the family beneath their noses. According to Rosemarie Fritzl’s sister, Fritzl would often stay in the cellar all night and his wife was not even allowed to bring him coffee. During this twenty-four year enslavement of her daughter, how did Rosemarie Fritzl not suspect something bizarre was occurring in her house and why didn’t she question the “discovery” of three of Elisabeth’s children on her doorstep?

Perhaps she knew what her husband was capable of doing and that his sexual behaviour crossed the line of normalcy. Reported by Austrian builder, Paul Stocker, the elderly couple was spotted in swingers clubs near Amstetten in the late nineties. Stocker, shocked by the spectacle, watched in disbelief as Fritzl forced his wife into a corner in order to witness him advance upon a young woman. Further investigation may show that Rosemarie Fritzl was always forced into a corner; however it may be discovered that she knew of her daughter’s torture and failed to inform the authorities.

Popularity: 9% [?]

By Ryan (Politics Category Editor)

With the recent upsurge in violence in Iraq and the visible inability of the Iraqi Army to clamp down on Shia militias in Basra and Sadr City, Iraq is still a tense and brutal environment. The power to control the multi-faceted nation has not yet been resolved and the sectarian struggle for true representation is now hampered by more conflict within the religious and political factions vying for control.

But for Americans while the cost of the war grows, its impacts on the presidential campaign present a danger to the GOP, or do they? How has the Mahdi Army violence effected McCain? Well heres a surprise, it really hasn’t. McCain’s price hasn’t really changed since Maliki began his campaign in Basra on the 24^th, as evidenced by his price on Hubdub. Shown here:

So how has a upsurge in violence not decreased McCain’s price?

Some may say that the violence now ensuing southern Iraq and Sadr city is just between Iraqi’s. Therefore it lacks major US involvement on the ground. Unfortunately this analysis lacks the images of a smoke obscured Green Zone under mortar and rocket attack. Not to mention the deaths of US citizens within the Green Zone. It’s true that US involvement in the recently launched campaign against Shia militias is very limited, but the violence has been widely reported in the US media. So what gives? Why would a supporter of an unpopular war, from the party of an unpopular President be able to to stay so high in price?

How about the economy? With a slide into recession still front page news maybe McCain’s more conservative economic policies are holding sway with voters and overwriting opposition to the war, maybe, just maybe. Even if Iraq looks dreadful voters are overlooking that constant reality and worrying about their wallets. Keep in mind the ever wise theme “it’s the economy stupid!” Even if McCain’s conservative economic policies aren’t a hit with voters, the importance of the economy is still overshadowing Iraq. Voters can’t pay attention to a war in a far away country when their pocketbooks are in peril. The war has become so ingrained that the violence there is now an afterthought.

So is Iraq no longer a hinderer for the GOP? Certainly not! Even if McCain isn’t faltering due to the current violence in Iraq, the amount of bad feeling that the war has caused will stick with him throughout this election. The election was the Democrats to lose and increasingly in what was a surefire Democratic win the prospects are much more even. If the Democrats lose this election the November 5^th New York Times headline will read “Blown Opportunity!”

Heres to hoping this campaign was going to be short and sweet…..

Related Questions:

Who will win the Presidential election, Democrats or Republicans?

Who will be the next President of the US?

When will the US pull out of Iraq?

Will the cease-fire order between the Mahdi Army and Coalition and Iraqi forces be rescinded by May 31st 2008?

Popularity: 9% [?]

By Diana (General Category Editor)

Thirty-nine years following the Tate and LaBianca murders, Charles Manson and his notorious “Family” are once again making headlines.
Having served decades behind bars for murder and conspiracy, convicted Manson Family killers are awaiting the exhumation of their past misdeeds—literally.

Shortly following her captivity, Susan Atkins, alias Sadie Mae Glutz, had boasted to a cellmate that the Manson Family was responsible for three unsolved murders. Rumors of murdered hitchhikers and drifters passed with time, yet not until recently had the ghost of Atkins’ jail cell confession prompt a team of investigators and forensic experts to return to Barker Ranch in Death Valley, California, the central setting for the Manson Family’s havoc. In search of unmarked graves, investigators including Sharon Tate’s sister, Debra Tate, seek to uncover the Manson Family’s additional victims in what appears to be a never-ending saga. Their efforts may unearth lost chapters in the grim Manson Family history, but the question remains whether the team will find what they are looking for.

Ordered to life in prison in accordance to California’s abolishment of the death penalty, Charles Manson and company have been denied parole countless times—Manson’s latest parole denial occurring May 23, 2007. Imprisoned Manson Family members are by no means on the verge of release. The results of the current Barker Ranch investigation will make little difference in their condemnation; however, for grieving family member such as Debra Tate, justice is putting the past to rest.

Popularity: 7% [?]

By Diana (General News Editor)

Former football star O.J. Simpson is no stranger to the courtroom and on Friday, March 7, 2008, Simpson’s attorneys will be back in court for a hearing concerning motions underlying his case. Simpson’s most recent judicial exploit is linked to a Las Vegas sports memorabilia robbery from September 2007 in which Simpson had, according to Nevada authorities, led five men to retrieve personal memorabilia including sports collectables and a suit worn by Simpson during his famed murder trial. Twelve charges have been brought against Simpson involving conspiracy, kidnapping, assault with a deadly weapon, and robbery - charges that can easily send Simpson to prison for life.

So what is at stake on March 7, 2008? Earlier in February, Simpson’s attorneys filed court papers claiming that prosecutors did not meet evidentiary standards to prosecute Simpson, now 60. Simpson’s attorneys seek that half of their client’s twelve charges be dropped and have asked for a separate trial from the other defendants. Although these motions are critical in Simpson’s future, the most significant motion surrounds questions involving jury selection and the request to prohibit the prosecution’s potential discussion of Nicole Brown Simpson and Ron Goldman’s murders in Simpson’s current case. Now any objective judge would grant the latter motion; however, how can the memory of Simpson’s infamous murder case be effaced from the memory of the prospective jurors?

If Simpson’s past looms over his current court case, which it will, Simpson can face serious consequences whether the “the glove fits” or not. The legal system holds everyone innocent until proven guilty, but who doesn’t have preconceived notions about Simpson? It is unlikely that Simpson will get a completely non-discriminatory jury and the former football star’s trial, scheduled for April 7, 2008, is just around the corner. What does the future hold for Simpson? You decide:

How many charges will be dismissed as a result of the papers filed by OJ Simpson on Feb 1 2008?

Will OJ Simpson serve prision for the Las Vegas memoribilia case?

Popularity: 7% [?]