Recently launched Perspctv collates polls, twitter, blog post and news mentions on the forthcoming election. Unfortunately, there is no prediction market data but the quality of the data visualization makes up for that.
Popularity: 3% [?]
By Ryan Jacobs (Politics Category Editor)
For months we’ve watched the Democratic nomination drudgingly soldier on. Now though the light at the end of the tunnel has finally appeared. As we near the end of the nominating process lets analyze what got us to this point.
At the end of April it still seemed like the fight between Clinton and Obama was a competition. McCain although out in the GOP wilderness was building his machine and raising funds. But as April turned into May a momentous shift occurred showcased by the market chart above. Around May 6-7th the entire Who will be the next President market shifted.
Clinton’s price began a slow but steady downwards slope and this price decrease boosted Obama’s standing, leading him to break free from McCain and soar ahead. Despite fallout from Reverend Wright and other political gaffes Obama’s been able to not only maintain a lead in the markets but build on it.
Oddly, the Gallup polls show a close general election race between Obama and McCain, but the markets which are asking the same question have very different results. They show what seems to be a knockout win for Obama in November. The question is why is this happening? It’s possible that Gallup responders are tinged more by ideology and don’t just take into consideration the facts but also predict who they want to be the next President. Prediction markets users don’t predict who they hope will be the next President, there predictions are based almost solely on cold hard calculations of who will be the next President. This is because they want the large payoff from predicting correct.
So what events or event caused the sudden change in the markets? If we track this back to the primaries, 2 come to mind, the May 6th Indiana and North Carolina primaries. After these as seen through the market Obama began his quick ascension, while Clinton and McCain both faltered.
So why did McCain and Clinton both falter after Indiana and North Carolina? Well, Obama won Carolina with large margins and was able to keep Clinton’s win in Indiana small, therefore he was finally able to shut her down. With Clinton all but officially done Obama could now focus on McCain. As Obama focused on McCain it became clearer and clearer who of the two was the front runner for the Presidential election and the market adjusted for this showcased by McCain’s slow downturn and Obama’s rapid ascent.
Obama now holds a major lead in the markets and once Clinton is officially gone I’d predict Obama’s price will inflate once again. The problem is when will the downturn happen? Obama can’t fly like this forever and soon enough the GOP will begin to mercilessly attack. The election this year won’t be a blowout for Obama and soon enough the markets will adjust to this, the question is when?
Popularity: 6% [?]
By Ryan (Politics Category Editor)
With a convincing win in Pennsylvania Clinton has yet again survived to fight another day. The stakes are now higher than ever though. For Clinton Indiana is a must win. The margin doesn’t matter all that much, only the win. Obama was ahead in Indiana, but now his lead is diminishing to a neck and neck, minute by minute coin toss. If Clinton wins Indiana she affirms her right to stay in the race longer. If Clinton gets a loss the prospects are much grimmer. The super delegate tide is already a break towards Obama and a loss in Indiana would only shift that tide further.
North Carolina is a null point. There’s no way the state will goto Clinton, it’s an affirmative Obama win. The question is can Clinton not only win Indiana but drive Obama’s margin of victory down to 5 percent or less in Carolina? That type of win on May 6th would spell disaster for Obama.
For Obama to win Indiana he has to flood the state with as much advertising as possible, if he isn’t already and rid himself of the “elitist” frame. The best move made by Clinton was framing Obama into an elitist candidate even if he wasn’t. Trying to get rid of the frame will prove difficult especially in the time before May 6th. A awe inspiring speech could work but it’s risky, there’s a chance it backfires and makes him look like a talker and not a doer.
Finally, the notion that the Democratic nomination process is good for the party is malarkey. The party is splintering and voters are getting bored and annoyed by the length of the campaign. Yes registrations are way up and turnout is phenomenal, but the trend for some 40 years has been a lessening in voter turnout. This process does nothing but reaffirm voters dissatisfaction with the political system.
Who’ll last longer Robert Mugabe or Hillary Clinton?
Will Obama be able to win both the Indiana and North Carolina primaries on May 6th?
Will Hillary Clinton withdraw from the nomination race before the Democratic Convention?
Popularity: 4% [?]
By Ryan (Politics Category Editor)
I’m really tired, I’m worn out and I’m done! Since the end of the Reverend Wright issue last month the Dem. nomination process has taken its toll on me. For weeks all we’ve heard are back and forth arguments between Obama and Clinton. Unfortunately these arguments haven’t been on substantive issues. All they’ve been are petty blame games and tattle tale politics.
For these passing weeks all I’ve seen on the politics pundit roundup are commentators regurgitating the same thing they said a day ago. The news cycle has become so bland that turning on the TV gives me a headache. My mind now swirls in a swath of punditry gone bonkers. The reason? There exists a lack of political events to report on, which in a way is a good thing.
Americans can take a break from the polarizing campaigns to worry about more pressing issues like the dwindling economy, a bad war gone badder or hefty fuel prices. Sadly for someone like me and many other political hooligans we are addicted to the game of politics. So even though no actual events like a primary or debate have occurred a need still exists to stay in touch with election politics.
But this treachery must stop! I’m going nuts with all the useless political commentary from moderates, liberal and conservatives. Can’t we just take a break?
There is no need for much more than a whisper of punditry or commentary. All I want is to just get to Pennsylvania already. It’s been a long and agonizing wait and Pa. is only a week away now. There’s no need for any commentary. All we have are “if she wins” or “if she loses” or even more dreadful “if she wins by less that 5%.” It’s just gotten boring, we won’t know anything until the Pennsylvania primary on the 22nd, because everything depends on that date. We can’t say “if she wins Indiana” until the judgment of the Pennsylvania electorate. So if your like me and you’ve just gotten a little sick of it all, just relax. Go watch some Battlestar Galactica for a good political melodrama or discuss something important like the rising price of rice. But for gods sake don’t watch, read or listen to the replicated nonsense of pundits until after Pennsylvania!
Things to do until Pennsylvania:
Predict who will win the Pa. primary?
Predict who will be the Dem. Nominee?
Predict who will be the next President?
Predict which Dem. candidate will win the female vote in Pa.?
Or my personal favorite, predict who’ll last longer, Robert Mugabe or Hillary Clinton?
Popularity: 4% [?]
By Diana
Upheaval and protest have followed the Olympic torch since it began its worldwide journey on April 1, 2008. Reports of violence, numerous arrests, and coverage of the torch being extinguished is widespread. Pro-Tibet and human rights protesters have confronted torchbearers and security guards alike and with many days to go until the August 8, 2008 opening ceremony, there appears to be little sign of the demonstration’s slowing worldwide.
London’s April 6, 2008 portion of the relay was met with heavy resistance when protesters, voicing against China’s position on Tibet and Darfur, attempted to grab the torch and hinder the procession. It was also reported that one protester tried to extinguish the torch’s flame with what appeared to be a fire extinguisher.
Crowds along the torch route shouted “Free Tibet!” and “China, talk to Dalai Lama!”, wielding posters displaying anti-Chinese foreign policy slogans. 37 people were arrested for assorted offenses.
The following day, the Olympic torch faced more disquiet in San Francisco have already begun to experience protest prior to the torch’s arrival, which occurred this morning.
Two days ago, a pair of extremely large banners reading “One World One Dream. Free Tibet” and “Free Tibet 08″ were on display after three activists climbed a suspension cable of the Golden Gate Bridge. Rumor of a larger high-tech insurgency planned in association with The San Francisco Bay Area Darfur Coalition is said to unveil a “viral video,” or a video clip, designed to raise awareness about China’s ties to Sudan and the Darfur conflict just in time for Wednesday’s parade in the Bay Area. Tensions are high for this afternoon’s two-and-a-half-hour relay along the San Francisco waterfront.
With over a hundred days to go until the torch’s arrival in Beijing, the emblem for the Olympic spirit, now a highly politicized symbol of international disunity, is threatened at every turn. Security agents and local police forces will struggle against waves of demonstrators and protesters hoping to extinguish and confiscate the symbolic Olympic vestige are expected. Whether the torch shall remain in torchbearer hands today or if the entire torch relay will be abandoned, has yet to be determined.
Popularity: 4% [?]
By Ryan (Politics Category Editor)
Every day the intensity of the attacks brought upon Hillary Clinton increase. We hear how she’s behind in the popular vote as well as the delegate count. And we hear how the possibility of regaining a lead in those categories get slimmer by the hour. But those statistics won’t be the straw that break the camels back. So what will be?
The answer is the media. We’ve seen the SNL skits and watched Clinton’s complaints but the media bias has continued. Oddly enough though, the bias shouldn’t be laid at the medias feet. In fact the only one responsible for the bias is Clinton herself. But why is this the case?
Well, if politics is a game, albeit an important game Clinton’s loss in the primaries have occurred because she hasn’t played the game well enough. The mistake of setting herself as the established nominee and initial mismanagement of Bill were examples of errors that gave the media a narrative of failure and elitism. When inklings of this bias first developed the campaign should have stomped them out, instead the narrative simmered and grew until it was to extensive to be put down. By the time Clinton’s complaints were aired the narrative had been set. Clinton can comeback, resignations like Penn’s won’t help but the media always likes a underdog. It’ ain’t over till it’s over!
So in an era where electronics rather than paper are the medias medium which source has the least bias? After months of statistical study, 5,000 interviews and gigabytes of hard drive space I have the answer!
It’s Complicated
I’ve looked at the three main American news outlets. FOX, MSNBC and CNN. While most would throw FOX right out the window and let it simmer in its own urine, I think I’ve been a bit more subdued. FOX for all its faults covers Clinton at times reasonably well. Whether this is a “right-wing” conspiracy or a weird twist of fate I leave up to you…
MSNBC on the other hand offers a much more left sided perspective. If you watch Chris Mathews or Keith Olbermann the slant towards Obama is noticeable and at times repetitive and annoying. I must admit though that MSNBC is my favorite station for politics. The reason being that MSNBC out of all the other stations seems to have the most in depth political commentary and best shows. Hardball (besides Mathew’s Obama tainted slant) is full of good analysis and punditry all week long.
Onwards to CNN. Out of all the three broadcasters CNN is the most objective. It has a good right left split and lacks the core subjectivity that MSNBC and FOX bring along with broadcasting. Unfortunately you can’t have your cake and eat it to. The problem with CNN is that at times it seems too childish. In trying to reach as many viewing markets as possible CNN cuts down on the complexity of politics and simplifies everything. When watching CNN I want to shout “where’s the analysis, where are the pundits!”
So which should you choose? I can’t endorse one outlet or the other because although I watch MSNBC the most, I religiously watch all three. If your really a political connoisseur you should watch all three. Yes they all come from different colors of the spectrum, but if you want to understand the complexities of American politics and create your own informed opinion you might as well get informed by multiple sources.
Related Questions:
Which site, MSNBC or CNN will have more visitors by June?
Who will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?
Which Democratic Candidate will have the most delegates going into the convention?
Will Hillary Clinton regain the lead in the popular vote by the convention?
Popularity: 4% [?]
By Ryan (Politics Category Editor)
With the recent upsurge in violence in Iraq and the visible inability of the Iraqi Army to clamp down on Shia militias in Basra and Sadr City, Iraq is still a tense and brutal environment. The power to control the multi-faceted nation has not yet been resolved and the sectarian struggle for true representation is now hampered by more conflict within the religious and political factions vying for control.
But for Americans while the cost of the war grows, its impacts on the presidential campaign present a danger to the GOP, or do they? How has the Mahdi Army violence effected McCain? Well heres a surprise, it really hasn’t. McCain’s price hasn’t really changed since Maliki began his campaign in Basra on the 24th, as evidenced by his price on Hubdub. Shown here:
So how has a upsurge in violence not decreased McCain’s price?
Some may say that the violence now ensuing southern Iraq and Sadr city is just between Iraqi’s. Therefore it lacks major US involvement on the ground. Unfortunately this analysis lacks the images of a smoke obscured Green Zone under mortar and rocket attack. Not to mention the deaths of US citizens within the Green Zone. It’s true that US involvement in the recently launched campaign against Shia militias is very limited, but the violence has been widely reported in the US media. So what gives? Why would a supporter of an unpopular war, from the party of an unpopular President be able to to stay so high in price?
How about the economy? With a slide into recession still front page news maybe McCain’s more conservative economic policies are holding sway with voters and overwriting opposition to the war, maybe, just maybe. Even if Iraq looks dreadful voters are overlooking that constant reality and worrying about their wallets. Keep in mind the ever wise theme “it’s the economy stupid!” Even if McCain’s conservative economic policies aren’t a hit with voters, the importance of the economy is still overshadowing Iraq. Voters can’t pay attention to a war in a far away country when their pocketbooks are in peril. The war has become so ingrained that the violence there is now an afterthought.
So is Iraq no longer a hinderer for the GOP? Certainly not! Even if McCain isn’t faltering due to the current violence in Iraq, the amount of bad feeling that the war has caused will stick with him throughout this election. The election was the Democrats to lose and increasingly in what was a surefire Democratic win the prospects are much more even. If the Democrats lose this election the November 5th New York Times headline will read “Blown Opportunity!”
Heres to hoping this campaign was going to be short and sweet…..
Related Questions:
Who will win the Presidential election, Democrats or Republicans?
Who will be the next President of the US?
When will the US pull out of Iraq?
Popularity: 4% [?]
Many thought a Texas Obama win was very possible, and although Ohio had always been a harder target for the Obama campaign polling before the race had showed a very tight primary. What happened was a message from the voters. In the primaries and caucuses that day the voters decided that the nomination process should go on; they wanted further examination of the candidates. How though, will this help Democrats win the election?
The short answer is it will not. With John McCain as the GOP nominee, McCain is free to open fire on the Democrats. He doesn’t have to worry about primaries or that pesky Huckabee anymore. The only hurdle now is a VP choice, and even that doesn’t need to be sorted with extreme expediency. While the Democrats continue playing chicken down the long road to the convention, McCain can begin his Presidential campaign. He now has free time to raise money and strengthen the GOP political machine.
Meanwhile, the Democrats need to pick a candidate, and that’s where the main dilemma stands. The superdelegates issue has been talked to death by the media, but no real solution has appeared. It now seems very likely that the Democratic convention will be the deciding point for the nomination. If this occurs, whoever wins the nomination will carry a laundry list of attacks on them by the past Democratic contender not to mention a primed and ready GOP political machine.
So as of right now, the Democrats, once seen as the party to beat for this years elections are actually behind in the race for President, with no foreseeable conclusion until the convention.
Will the democratic nomination be decided by a brokered deal between the two candidates?
Who will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary?
Popularity: 4% [?]
After 11 straight losses since Super Tuesday, the Clinton campaign is on the ropes. Though it may be depressing for Clinton supporters to face, the possibility of her dropping out after March 4th is very real. The inspiration of New Hampshire might still reinvigorate hope of a comeback in some, but even if Clinton manages to bag Ohio, dropping out may be her best course of action.
It is said that money makes the world go round, and in political campaigns no truer words are spoken. Contributions to Obama in recent months have filled the coffers and due to this Obama currently trounces Clinton in advertising. Especially in Texas where Obama is dominating the airwaves. News forecaster, Hubdub is predicting that the chances of Clinton winning in Texas are slim. Hubdub and others like it have been accurate predictors of the primaries so far.
But why should she drop out? Yes she’s losing primaries, yes she’s losing money, but why should she really dropout? The answer is Nader! Yes that wily 60 something year old is at it again. He ruined Gore and now he’s ruined Hillary. It would seem the outspoken consumer rights activist really has something against the former Clinton administration…
So how is this possible? Well, we can all agree that to a certain extent Clinton is a more divisive candidate than Obama. If Hillary were to run against McCain in 2008, the Nader factor would come into play. In a divisive campaign Nader pulls votes from Democrats, not Republicans. With Hillary only winning by the slimmest of margins in match ups against McCain, Nader’s siphoning of Democratic votes would turn an already polarized electorate lethal. Clinton would not be able to get enough votes to beat McCain due to Nader. In tight states like Florida, McCain would win by the smallest of margins, but he would still win.
Thinking tactically, Democrats, which ever candidate they favor, should support Clinton dropping out after March 4th. Not because of her policies or her message but because of the baggage carried with the Clinton name. This divisive factor compounded by Nader’s siphoning are to blame. With Obama, it’s more likely Republican votes can be stolen. Additionally independents, usually a mainstay of McCain, have shown increased support for Obama. To ensure a rerun of 2000 doesn’t occur Democrats must think about the most plausible way of winning, and as of now that way is Obama.
Track Clinton v McCain in a head to head: If Clinton is nominated, who will win the Presidency?
Track Obama v McCain in a head to head: If Obama is nominated, who will in the Presidency?
Popularity: 7% [?]
