We are really excited to announce that we have just integrated with Twitter. What that means is that when you make a prediction on Hubdub you can then immediately drop it into your Twitter stream. Additionally, you can opt to save your Twitter log in details and either tweet all your predictions or just selectively tweet them.

Here is the first ever Hubdub prediction tweet:

You can follow me on Twitter here. Get tweeting those predictions!

Popularity: 7% [?]

Earlier this week we put the finishing touches to a great set of widgets. There are two types of widget:

Market widget

The first type of widget is a market widget which records the the changes in prices in that market over time. If you post this widget to your blog then Hubdub will automatically provide a trackback from the market page to your blog post. If, for example, you were writing about the twists and turns of the on-off Microsoft acquisition of Yahoo then you might want to embed this widget:

what is this?

Who will buy Yahoo?

% chance over time

    Microsoft

    News Corp

    Viacom

    Time Warner

    Other public company

    Private equity

    Still independent by end of ‘08

Get this widget

Hubdub - The News Prediction Game

Or maybe you wanted to show how Obama has consolidated his grip on the Democratic nomination:

what is this?

Who will the 2008 Democratic candidate for President be?

% chance over time

    Barack Obama

    Hillary Clinton

    John Edwards

    Someone else

Get this widget

Hubdub - The News Prediction Game

Or maybe you just wanted to show which of Howard Stern’s Bowling Beauties the market is currently in love with:

what is this?

Who will win Howard Stern’s ‘Bowling Beauties’ contest?

% chance over time

    Justine Joli

    Jackie

    Savanna

    Phyllicia

    Tracy

    Gina Lynn

    Leticia

    Kayla

Get this widget

Hubdub - The News Prediction Game

To access this type of widget click on the ‘Get widget’ link on the question page.

Prediction widget

Want to tell the world your prediction and record it for posterity? Then you need the prediction widget. This widget (which is a bit like a betting slip) shows what you predicted and when.

Maybe you predicted in mid-April when Obama was having priest issues and Mugabe had just lost an election, that Mugabe would still outlast Clinton:

Who’ll last longer, Robert Mugabe or Hillary Clinton?

I predicted Mugabe   on 13th Apr 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

Or maybe you predicted that the 3G iPhone will launch in the second half of June. Actually best not mention that one now everyone knows it will be the first half of June. Oh well, here it is:

When will Apple officially announce the 3G iPhone? [dates rumored]

I predicted June 15th to 30th   on 12th May 08

what is this?

The News Prediction Game

To access this widget click on the widget icon beside your prediction on your My Hubdub page.

Widget, widgets everywhere

The widgets come in both 250 pixel wide and 400 pixel wide versions and you can post them to your blog or to your favorite social networking profile. Have fun widgeting!

Popularity: 7% [?]

Think you know your shouts from your voids. Then you might want to try out the Hubdub Quiz.  Worryingly I think I would only chalk up a 7…

(Created by Rohan)

Popularity: 4% [?]

By Nigel (Chief News Junkie)

The United States Military Academy’s Department of Mathematical Science runs a weekly Problem of the Week. Last week was a really interesting problem involving making predictions on Hubdub! Unfortunately the deadline is now closed for entries however kudos to the first commentator who posts the correct answer below.

Hat tip to jenniandboys.

Popularity: 18% [?]

By Nigel (Chief News Junkie)

On the day we launched our site, Hubdub, into public beta, I received the following email:

Nigel,

We have a problem. I have here a postmarked and sealed a 22 slide Power Point presentation regarding my concept, dated well before your launch today that I just heard about on the news, and I have been seeking legal representation since November 2007, so it is well documented this was mine before you even founded it in November 2007….Now I believe this concept has been stolen from me. I don’t know how you want to handle this, but I do expect a resolution. I will await your response.

Regards,

Cole Bartiromo

The email fell into my spam bin and I’ve only just found it. I thought “Who the hell is this guy? so I googled ‘Cole Bartiromo’ and came across some very interesting news clippings from 2004 about a Californian 19 year old of that name going to jail for 3 years for eBay fraud. Apparently, he’s got previous having as a 17 year old scammed $1 million off investors by selling “risk-free” investments. CBS have a nice picture of him (although he appears to be playing baseball with an invisible bat).

So Cole, you asked for a response and here it is: Give up your life of crime. You are young, obviously smart and clearly highly entrepreneurial. Take Jason Calacanas’s advice, “The life of crime is too much work for too little benefit; start a company!” (Twit 130, last 12 minutes). I’m not sure if you could raise outside money (well you probably could, but you might need to tell them where the money is going!) but a guy like you should easily be able to bootstrap yourself to profitability. At the end of the day, the company of hairy assed pizza eating developers is always going to be better than the company of hairy assed pretty-boy worrying cellmates!

Popularity: 7% [?]

By Lesley (Editor-In-Chief)

Hubdub, a website that allows users to bet play money on news events, is reporting a rising phenomenon of users becoming Hubdub addicts, or Hubdubaholics as they’re calling themselves.

If you recognise any of these characteristics, then seek help immediately:
1. You are obsessed about the weather: You check the forecast in Angola (when you live in LA) and stay up to 3am waiting for it to rain in Denver (when you live in NYC).

2. You develop an intense passion for politics: You follow every second of every speech made by Clinton and Obama: you have a wager on whether Hillary will cry again and how many times Obama will say “change”. One Hubdubber said, “I’ve never been so interested in politics in my life”.

3. Your chores are left undone and life is put on hold: 25 year old Laura* who admits that she hasn’t done any laundry or cleaning since discovering Hubdub, says sheepishly, “I am in a worried state for my own future”, and goes on to confess, “I have printed charts and progress lists everywhere. Rise and fall, I crosscheck it all!”

4. You forget to eat: One Hubdubaholic, David (age 18), confirms that he’s “forgotten to eat some days” and is “certain (enough to bet $1000 on Yes) that he’s far from alone in his experience”. “I was so busy worrying about who will win the March 4th Primaries that I forgot all about lunch”

5. You begin to lose rational thought: You hear a news story about a missing child and think – do I have a wager on that? You structure your life around the opening and closing of the financial markets. “I drool like Pavlov’s dog when I hear the opening and closing bell of the DOW, wondering which wagers I won” says Adam (age 34). And your whole day revolves around the site, “As soon as I wake, I Hubdub. Fresh out the shower? I Hubdub. As soon as I get into the office? Hubdub. My daily commute? Leave home shortly before the DAX closes, arrive at work before the DOW opens, leave work after the DOW closes, and make it home before the reality shows and evening news shows.”

6. You begin to treat news like porn: You hide your PC screen whenever your boss walks by and you sneak news peeks like you’re visiting an adult entertainment site. “I feel so guilty, but I can’t stop myself, it’s so riveting” says Adam.

7. You suffer insomnia: You have sleepless nights about losing too many Hubdub dollars overnight on the latest NFL question. You toss and turn wondering if Britney will be hospitalised again.

8. Your reading and TV habits alter dramatically: You read every section of the newspaper and race home from work/college just to catch the latest headlines. One Hubdubaholic from New York admits that he “Asked to borrow a newspaper from a fellow commuter on the way to work to check for info on whose flashbacks will appear in LOST that night.” Another confesses that “All the sites and blogs that I used to visit, I don’t visit anymore.” And TV viewing becomes increasingly impossible, “I even have to turn off “Jeopardy!” because I can’t think about that and Hubdub at the same time.”

9. You have vivid and recurring dreams: You dream about making it onto the leaderboard, or just notching one rank above your buddy, proving that you are indeed smarter than them. According to Stephen, age 30, “I think about it all the time, even in my sleep. Nothing beats the thrill of winning a prediction. Or, of climbing the leaderboard. Or, of knowing that I was right when others were wrong.”

10. You become isolated: You wonder how to include other Hubdubbers into your “real” life, for they are the only ones you can communicate with. You stop socialising because alcohol dulls your brain and it needs to stay sharp to hubdub. “I had a couple of glasses of wine last week then got onto Hubdub and lost myself a couple of thousand Hubdub dollars on what will be top of the box office this weekend…never again.”

It is feared that things could go from bad to worse now that new functionality has been introduced allowing users to compete hard against their friends.

Please remember folks, friends don’t let friends drink and Hubdub. And whatever happens, it’s only a game. Isn’t it?

* Names have been changed to protect the innocent (but addicted)

Popularity: 13% [?]

  By Nigel

Over the past three weeks Hubdub users have created some very funny and inventive questions. For example, ‘Will Dick Cheney bag another attorney this year when hunting at Armstrong Ranch?‘

However, what has provoked real discussion is the morality of questions like ‘How many American soldiers will be killed in Iraq in February 2008?‘ or ‘Will Britney Spears be alive on December 31 2008?‘

On the question of the morality of questions I’ve struggled to come up with what is the right answer. Fundamentally it feels wrong to profit (even virtually) from someone else’s tragedy. However, it would be strange for us to self-censor ourselves from making predictions about something professional journalists are already discussing and making predictions on.

One of the things that influenced me when we were developing the site was a comment made by the UK Secretary of Defence, Dr John Reid, when we were sending troops into Afghanistan. He said that ‘hopefully the troops would return without firing a shot’. Additionally, at the time it seemed there lacked any real national debate on why we were committing more troops to Afghanistan and what their objective was. The British Army is now fighting one of its most intense operations since Korea resulting in 82 British fatalties in the last 2 years.

Elsewhere prediction markets have shown the ability to be one of the best means of aggregating information and forecasting future events (and particularly better than politicians with a vested interest). I believe if we have a sufficient user base then we could not only have an accurate forecast of the outcome of these decisions but could also act as a forum for public debate on whether the decision was worth the cost. So while questions like this feel distasteful I think they could potentially have real social value.

However, those are my own thoughts. I’d really like to know where you thought was the line on this.

Popularity: 8% [?]

  By Nigel

Hubdub has had a great start over the past 10 days however there have been a number of problems that users have identified that we need to address. Two of the biggest issues are (1) lack of clarity in questions (often resulting in them being voided) and (2) the existance of non-news or gaming questions. We are working on a number of things to try to fix both of these. One of these is to agree a set of rules and common understandings. This is a first draft for discussion. Please let me know what you think in the comments below or on the Get Satisfaction notice board.

Introduction

At Hubdub we don’t really like rules. Rules seem to be written by small minded people intent on stopping other people having fun. However, we’ve found that sometimes rules are helpful. If football (whichever flavour you play) didn’t have any rules then it would be a disaster. So think of these rules as like the rules of football, there to make life more fun.

Like the rules of football these rules will evolve, we can’t know what the gaps are in these rules until we hit the dispute that highlights them. When that dispute happens we will update these rules so that over time there should be fewer disputes.

General Rules – covering all categories

Subject to change

• These rules will change over time. In the event of a rule change the changes will be notified on the Hubdub Get Satisfaction notice board.

Site outages

• The website may, at any time, be temporarily unavailable for unscheduled technical reasons.
• In these circumstances, Hubdub will make best efforts to re-instate the site, however any losses suffered by users will not be re-credited.

Time and Time Zones

• All timings on the site are in PST (8 hours behind GMT, i.e. 12 noon PST is 8pm GMT)
• A week will begin at 12.00 midnight Sunday and close at 23.59 on Saturday
• If the question is on a prediction that happens in a particular locale it will be assumed that it refers to local time, unless otherwise specified. E.g. ‘Will it rain in Manchester, UK on Feb 5^th?’ would be resolved using local time (GMT). Best practise is for question creators to state the time zone in which the prediction occurs.
• Unless otherwise specified, if the question is with regards a general US news event then local time will considered to be PST.

Suspension

• While it will endeavour not to, Hubdub may suspend a question for any period at any time and for any duration.
• Under normal circumstances, i.e. where there is no dispute over an outcome, a question will only be suspended when it is about to be settled or when a sports event has started
• While a question is suspended, it will not be possible to place any new predictions or to cash-in any existing predictions on that question.
• A question will be suspended automatically when the Suspend date and time (as entered by the question creator) are reached.
• Hubdub administrators may amend the Suspend date and/or time if either has been entered incorrectly by the question creator or if circumstances change.
• In the event where no Suspend date or time has been entered, Hubdub administrators may enter them should they be deemed necessary.
• The Suspend date and time should not be used as a guide as to when the question will be settled. E.g. If the question is ‘Who will Edwards endorse?” and the suspend date is February 5^th then the question should not be interpreted as “Who will Edwards endorse by February 5^th?”

Types of question

• Questions should be about news stories that the creator expects a significant number of other users are interested in
• All questions should be settled from public news sources. Therefore the following types of question will not be accepted:
  • Questions which refer to activities that occur only on the Hubdub site e.g. ‘Will this question reach $400,000 in trades?’, ‘Who will be the top Hubdubber on Feb 28^th?’, ‘Will this question be voided?’ etc
  • Private questions which are only of interest to a small group of people, e.g. date of childbirth for a non-public figure

Settlement

• While Hubdub will make every effort to Settle a question within a reasonable time frame after the question has been suspended, in some circumstances there may a delay between suspension and settlement.
• When a question’s suspend time is after 2pm PST (10pm GMT), it may not be settled until the following day
• When a question’s suspend date falls at a weekend, it may not be settled until the following Monday
• Unless the settlement rules clearly state otherwise, Hubdub may settle questions before the suspend date if the outcome is clear and not subject to change.
• Where possible we like to settle questions early. If something is 99.9% certain then we will tend to settle it. Every one in a 1,000 times we get it wrong we will also pay-out on the correct outcome.
• When a question refers to the number of times a certain person says a certain phrase or word in a specific speech or debate, it may take a minimum of 24 hours after the event to settle the question

Disputes

• If there is a dispute over the settlement of a question, the dispute will be posted on Hubdub’s Get Satisfaction page for user feedback
• Based on the consensus reached by users, Hubdub will make a final decision on settlement
• Should there be no clear consensus on the outcome, Hubdub may void the question. If the question has already been settled, then voiding will result in the stakes on losing predictions being returned to users. However winning predictions will retain their winnings.

Voiding Questions

• Hubdub may void the question if
  • It’s a duplicate
  • It’s poorly worded, vague or ambiguous
  • It’s impossible to settle objectively
  • The initial likelihood values are not accurate
  • It does not have a wide following
  • A change of circumstances has occurred (see section below)
• When a question has been voided, the question creator will receive an automated email informing them that it has been voided. Hubdub Category Editors will endeavour to include a manual explanation if it is not clear.
• Users who have made a prediction on a question which has been voided will be able to see the voided question with an explanation for the voiding in their My Hubdub page
• Hubdub will void all predictions made after the outcome of a question becomes public knowledge (sorry no prizes for predicting what is already known)
• Hubdub does not vet every question and comment posted on the site. If a user has a complaint or an issue with a particular question or comment, it should be flagged by the user.
• For conditional questions, e.g. If John Edwards drops out, who will he endorse”, if the initial condition (e.g. ‘If John Edwards drops out’) is not met, the question will be voided

Changes of Circumstances

• If an event is cancelled or abandoned and the outcome is not clear, the question will be voided and all stakes returned to users.
• Any official changes to the outcome of a question after that question has been settled will be disregarded.
• If an event is postponed, the suspend date will be moved out accordingly
• An outcome may be listed against a question and due to a change of circumstances, that outcome is no longer actually possible, e.g. a date which has already past. In this event, the outcome will still be offered as an option and any users selecting that outcome will lose their stake on settlement

Creating Questions

• Question creators may not make a prediction on their created question until 12 hours after question creation
• An outcome of “Around X%” will only be acceptable if the creator specifies what they mean by ‘around’. In general it is better to specify a range, e.g. 0-5%.
• Hubdub may unilaterally amend created questions, e.g. to correct typos, settlement information and outcome ranges however we will not amend the meaning of a question that has already had predictions placed on it.
• From time to time, Hubdub may also unilaterally amend obvious typos that would change the meaning of the question had they been interpreted literally. E.g. ‘Will Yahoo be bought in 1008?’ would be amended to the creator’s intended question ‘Will Yahoo be bought in 2008’
• Any offensive questions or comments will be voided or deleted. Users posting such comments/questions will be given a warning and their usage of the site will be monitored. Should they continue to post offensive or unacceptable comments/ questions, they will be banned from using the site

Category Specific Rules

Entertainment Category

US Movie Box Office

• The question will be settled using data compiled and published by Nielson EDI for that period.
• General release is defined as having been released in at least 650 theatres domestically (USA & Canada).
• For questions regarding opening weekend box office takings, questions will be suspended at 5pm on the Friday
• “Opening weekend” will run from Friday to Sunday
• If the opening weekend for a specified movie falls on a holiday weekend the outcomes for a question regarding opening weekend will be calculated using this extended weekend unless otherwise stated.

TV Shows

• Settlement will be based on the final outcome of the Show as televised (either as live or recorded) on the official associated television network.
• The means by which a winner is determined will vary between shows so Hubdub will settle questions based on the official rules of the specific show
• If necessary, Hubdub may determine a winner for expiration purposes using the Dispute process (see above)
• Should the rules or the nature or timing of the contest change significantly, Hubdub may immediately amend these rules accordingly.
• In the event of two or more individuals/teams being awarded the title or are declared joint winners of the show, if there is no outcome for this listed in the question, then the question will be declared void
• If a contestant is disqualified for any reason before the outcome is settled, then predictions on them will be settled as losing predictions
• Official changes to the outcome made before the question is settled will stand.
• If a winner is disqualified after the question has been settled, that disqualification will be disregarded.

Awards

• The question will be settled based on the winner of the award as officially declared by the specific Award Board in question.
• For disqualification, see TV Shows above.

General Category

Weather

• All temperatures, unless otherwise stated in the question details will be taken to be the common scale for the region or country in which the weather occurred. For the avoidance of doubt that means Celsius in Europe (including the UK) and Fahrenheit in the US. If the region or country has no commonly agreed scale then Fahrenheit will be used.
• Temperatures, unless otherwise stated in the question details, do not include wind chill factor
• Questions regarding the weather for a specific area must be clearly defined and listed in NOAA (http://www.noaa.gov/wx.html) or in the equivalent organisation in countries outside the USA
• Snowfall will be measured in inches unless otherwise stated in the question details
• Snowfall does not include snow drifts
• Best practise on creating weather questions is to link directly to the settlement source in the settlement details

Sports Category

• If the question concerns whether a certain player will play in a particular game, the question can be settled when the team/squad is announced
• In general sports questions will be suspended prior to the start of the game in question. Any predictions made on a question accidentially left open during a game will be voided on settlement
• Questions on sports events should not include postponement as an outcome. In the event of postponement the question will stand but the suspend time will be extended
• Hubdub may select which questions will be suitable for in-running during a sporting event and will amend the suspend time appropriately. In this event, users will be notified which questions are in-running via the Get Satisfaction notice board.

Politics Category

• Unless otherwise stated a state primary/caucus/convention is decided based on delegates (not super delegates). A question will only be settled by the popular vote if that is explicitly stated in the question.
• In the event that a state primary/caucus/convention question results in a tie between candidates then the question will be settled as the winner of the popular vote.

Business Category

• For questions with regards takeovers an ‘offer’ is defined as public or private offer to buy the target company. Offers of assistance do not count.
• Questions can be made about the major indexes but should not be made about the performance of individual stocks

Popularity: 4% [?]