Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Blagojevich Problem

Illinois Gov. Rod Blagojevich got himself into a little trouble last week after trying to sell Barack Obama’s Senate seat. Almost everyone is calling for Blagojevich’s head on a plate, but the defiant and quite corrupt Governor is standing his ground. Hubdub gives Blagojevich resigning a over 70% chance, we also forecast resignation by December 21st.

Will Gov. Rod Blagojevich resign?

Rod Blagojevich missed his shot at naming Obama’s Senate successor. So who or what will decide who’s filling Obama’s vacant seat? By 49% Hubdub forecasts Illinois will call a special election.

Who will name Obama’s replacement?

Business

The big three Detroit auto makers failed to get a bailout fund from the Congress last week, but what should happen to those who were at the reins of the big three? General Motors CEO Richard Wagoner, seems the first likely target, especially when Congress is suggesting he get the boot. According to Hubdub though Wagoner only has a 31% chance of removal.

Will GM CEO Richard Wagoner step down or be fired before the end of 2008?

The Box Office

Kenau Reeves did quite good in the box office last weekend. Although this weekend three new movies premier, including Will Smith’s drama, Seven Pounds. For now Hubdub thinks Seven Pounds will be in the top spot this weekend, with Jim Carrey’s Yes Man only having a 33% chance of raking in the most cash.

What will be the #1 film this weekend?

The NFL

On December 21st the Panthers play the Giants. As the season ends both teams are hoping for a good showing. With home field advantage the Giants are the current favorites. What’s better is this market, dubbed ‘IN PLAY’ won’t be suspended during most of the game, so users can forecast who’ll win while the games on!

NFL - (IN PLAY) - Carolina Panthers @ NY Giants. Who will win on Dec 21st?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.

Popularity: 11% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

The Auto Bailout

America’s automotive producers have found themselves in a sticky situation these past weeks, and for the past months America’s banking giants haven’t been breezing along just fine either. With the possibility of a auto bailout looming, which failed giant will get better quicker, AIG or GM? Hubdub forecasts by over 55% it’s GM.

Which stock will rise the most in the month of December, AIG or GM?

The automotive industry kind of screwed up big time. Never fear though, the American taxpayers are happy to pick up the slack, or are they? This week the House is supposed to vote on a automotive industry bailout and by large enough margins Hubdub is predicting the bill will be passed with at least 218 to 290 votes.

Congress - How many “Yes” votes will be cast in the House for the Big 3 auto bailout?

Hubdub

There’s nothing like winning a Mashable Open Web Award to bring in the Holiday season! This year it seems Santa’s got his eyes on Hubdub. Mashable nominated an Open Web Award in Social News for Hubdub and we’re steam rolling through the competition. Currently Hubdub is trading above a 65% chance of winning the award, and for a Hubdubber those are damn good odds.

Who will win Mashable’s Open Web Award for Social News?

Sport

The Heisman Trophy is due to be awarded this Saturday. Sam Bradford a QB for Oklahoma seems to be the favourite. Hubdub gives him an over 65% chance of winning. That said ESPN may have shown some weakness to Sam’s main rival Colt McCoy who’s trading at 14%.

NCAAF - Who will win this year’s Heisman Trophy?

This Weekends Box Office

Can some tell me why all the evil disasters that befall Earth seem to always be centred around New York City? First you had Godzilla who made the move from Japan to New York in 1998 and now we have The Day The Earth Stood Still. No fear though Keanu Reeves should be able to clear this whole mess up and get tons of money in the process. How much money? Hubdub forecasts 40 to 50 Million on opening weekend.

US Box Office: How Much Will The Day The Earth Stood Still Make in its Opening Weekend?

Trading percentages given are at time of posting and may not match up with markets after the fact due to Hubdub users forecasting on said markets.  

Popularity: 12% [?]

Hubdub’s Hot Predictions this week, as decided by Hubdub users and staff, are selected based on their newsworthiness for the week. These stories are bound to be big news this week - and we have forecasts on how they’re likely to turn out.

2008 Election Over?

Some are saying it’s already over and packing their bags, but is it? McCain has many obstacles to surmount in the next week, but John has comeback from the dead before. Endorsements from party faithfuls like Colin Powell don’t help though. Currently Hubdub forecasts McCain has less than a 15% chance of winning.

Who will win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

Pundits are saying November 4th is shaping up to be a landslide win for Obama. This election could still get very, very tight though, and in the end it’s all about the electoral votes. For now Hubdub users disagree with pundits and predict a narrow election by just 45 Electoral Votes or less.

ELECTION 2008: What will be the ELECTORAL MARGIN between Obama and McCain?

North Carolina’s known for being a staunch GOP state. In the Dem. primaries Obama won the state, but for the summer McCain was in the lead by double digits. As the economy nears the edge of recession though it seems North Carolina may switch sides. Even now by over 60% Hubdub forecasts Obama grabs the state.

Who will win North Carolina in the 2008 Presidential Election?

Barack Obama has purchased 30 minutes of primetime TV on October 29th to address the nation. This will be Obama’s last chance to ’seal the deal.’ But how many people will be watching? Hubdub users think 50 million or more.

How many people will watch Barack Obama’s primetime address on 10/29?

Odd Stuff

Some might think Rock, Paper, Scissors is just a kids game but this stuff is hardcore! There’s even a World Championship in Toronto on the 25th. As to what will be the winning play rock, paper or scissors even Hubdub’s unsure just yet.

Rock Paper Scissors-What will be the winning final “throw” @ 2008 Int’l Championships?

Sports

It’s World Series time, and although the elections and economy might be getting the most attention, sports fans are going crazy. This year we have the Philadelphia Phillies facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays. By tight margins Hubdub users are forecasting a win by the Rays, but the Phillies aren’t pushovers. Good luck to both teams!

MLB World Series - Philadelphia Phillies vs Tampa Bay Rays - Series Outcome?

World News

Thailand’s in the midst of a political crisis right now. The first two prime ministers have gone rather quickly and now just a month into the job the thirds tenure is looking shaky. Hubdubbers predict the third prime minister, Somchai Wongsawat is gone by November.

When will Thai PM Somchai Wongsawat resign?

The Internet

Reddit is one of the most well known social media sites on the web, although we at Hubdub like to think we’re pretty popular too. In September Reddit brought in 3,300,327 unique visitors. Can they top that result by getting over 5 million unique hits before 2009? Less than 30% of Hubdubbers say yes.

Will Reddit.com reach 5 million Unique Visitors - Monthly in 2008?

Financial Meltdown

We’ve been through turbulent times these last weeks. The markets have gone up and up and then teetered off a cliff into a pack of ravenous wolves. Are we through the worst of it? Will we have anymore big swings in the Dow during October? Hubdub says don’t hold your breath it ain’t over yet!

How many 500+ point swings will the Dow have remaining in October?

Everyone likes to think that American money is American money. We’re in a interdependent world though, where one thing effects another. We’re also a country in tons of debt, who has all of our debt? Japan, but China’s catching up. By March 2009 Hubdubbers still forecast Japan holds the most American debt.

Who will hold most of the U.S debt? (March 2009)

Popularity: 21% [?]

By Andrew (Business Editor)

Rumors continue to circulate that an H4 Hummer will be produced in the near future. Some sources are saying that prototypes already exist but General Motors isn’t giving too much away. This hummer fan site has some coverage.

More detailed information on the proposals here and here

General Motors does admit to considering an H4 and it appears they would want it to slot into the range as a compact version of the Hummer. The above link suggests that they won’t pay for a from-scratch design due to cost and expected return on a smaller/compact Hummer despite the high activity in that sector of the auto market. The Hummer brand is certainly a powerful one despite the current fashion of environmentalism. Even if GM can overcome these issues, it may take a while to get to the dealerships.

what is this? My Prediction

Will GM sell a Hummer under the name of H4 in 2008?

I predicted No   
on Today

More predictions by me: andrew

Can you get it right? Make your prediction…

Hubdub - The News Prediction Game

Popularity: 5% [?]

By Nigel (Chief News Junkie)

After Microsoft walking away from the Yahoo deal their are long term questions on everyone’s mind like: How long with Steve Ballmer last as Microsoft CEO? Can Yahoo remain independent? and Will Yahoo buy AOL from Time Warner?

Immediate question

However the immediate question on everyone’s mind is: What price with Yahoo’s stock price finish trading on Monday? Top technology blogger and VC, Fred Destin (always a great read), has created a poll on it. It is currently projecting $22 per share. Will the market and poll correlate?

Market here: What Price Will Yahoo Close at On Monday May 5th?

Poll here:

Popularity: 7% [?]

By Nigel (Chief News Junkie)

Silicon Alley Insider reports that Microsoft is willing to raise its offer for Yahoo to $32-33 per share. Yahoo’s board are reported to want a number in the high 30’s which is all very well given that Yahoo’s stock price will probably drop to the low 20’s if Microsoft walks.

Would you sleep with me for $10m? 

It is clear that Yahoo’s position is shifting from “We don’t want to be bought” to “OK, but that isn’t enough”. It is a bit like the old joke where a guy propositions a girl with the line “Would you sleep with me for $10m?”. The girl says well for one night she probably would. The guy then makes the same proposal but for $100. The girl says “What do you think I am, a prostitute!?” to which the guy replies “We’ve already established your status, I’m just trying to negotiate the price!”.

Prediction market forecasting a deal 

Anyway, Yahoo is currently trading at $27.4 per share (pre-opening) so some investors certainly think that Microsoft could walk away. However more interestingly the forecast chance of Yahoo staying independent is steadily dropping on the Hubdub prediction market. Currently Hubdub predictors are forecasting the percentage chance of Yahoo being independent at the end of 2008 as around 15%. So will it be bye bye Yahoo, hello Microhoo?

Popularity: 8% [?]

By Andrew (Business Editor)

The first batches of government stimulus checks are being received today, although only for those who opted for a direct deposit into their accounts. These checks are intended as a shot in the arm for the economy and to boost consumer confidence. There is one thing Fed chairman Bernanke want you to do with yours, spend, spend, spend! Both he and the administration are desperate for consumers to spend these checks to make more money flow through the economy. The checks and deposits will continue throughout May and June, with the roll out based on social security numbers. Wall Street Fighter has a good FAQ regarding how much you can hope to receive and when.

While being given a cash “bonus” may sound like grounds for frivolous spending, it’s probably not the best plan if you’re struggling to cope with the crunch. Paying off some loans or a portion (however insignificant) of your mortgage seems a sensible approach if you have found yourself reigning in your spending recently. A counter argument to being that fiscally responsible is this CNN report, speculating that the crunch may be over. Even if it is, using the cash to pay off some debt is normally a good long term plan.

Oil is still very high despite a fall back from the $120 mark when futures trading moved from May to June. This is keeping derivative prices high, such as the diesel price. Gasoline is still rising but Hubdub users don’t think that it will hit $4 per gallon by the 4th of July. What do you think?

Popularity: 7% [?]

By Andrew (Business Editor)

Well it’s been a bad week for the airlines.  With the safety problems on board American Airline’s MD-80 planes, the company was forced to ground 300 aircraft (a large portion of its fleet), leading to thousands of flight cancellations.  This spate of safety actions is as a result of the increased scrutiny of the FAA, after it came out last month that Southwest had been flying without proper inspection. The situation appears to be over for American Airlines with all planes back in the air and service running as normal.  The more long term issue in the aviation industry which is coming to light is the collapse of multiple budget airlines.

There is now a growing list of low-cost carriers who are going bankrupt.  They include Oasis, Skybus, Aloha, ATA and Frontier.  These airlines are the latest casualties of the current difficult economic situation, someone in government will have to use that ‘R’ word at some point.  Budget carriers the world over are notorious for running close to the wire  with razor thin profit margins.  This is an obvious result of the ultra-competitive market in which they operate, in a situation where the customer isn’t paying for any sort of in flight service they will simply go for the cheapest option.  Therefore when running costs increase, they can’t absorb them as lost profit as some of the more expensive operators are able to.

It looks like its going to get even harder for the budget airlines still in operation, as oil is yet again on the up.  Its currently sitting around the $113 mark but there seems little reason for it to fall back.  Will Oil close below $100 before the end of April? Hubdub users currently don’t think so.  Interestingly gold has fallen back as money goes back into the oil markets. Will it get back above $1000/oz?

Popularity: 5% [?]

By Andrew (Business Editor)

The collapse of Bear Stearns is the biggest headline event in this credit crunch. While JPMorgan may have leapt to the rescue, it is hardly an event that will be quickly forgotten. Few consumers will have dealt directly with Bear Stearns, due to the nature of its business, however it was a giant in the banking and investments sector and its absorption by JPMorgan will change the landscape of the sector. Will it be the last major collapse? Can we hope that the rest of the system is not a house of cards? What’s worse is that this collapse happened during a period where the world’s central banks have lent the banking system billions of dollars.

Beyond lending, new plans are afoot in the U.S. to try and steady the ship. Today the Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, is due to announce an overhaul of the financial regulatory system. There is a long list of proposed changes, although it should be noted that these changes will require congressional approval. The changes are to increase the amount of regulation and oversight in the financial sector, possibly an admission that the laid-back free market approach taken by the Bush administration is not suitable for the current financial climate. The administration clearly appears to be fighting hard to keep the American economy out of recession, or at least shorten its length. It will be interesting to see how the markets react to these proposals, whether they ever get approved or not is another matter.

On the markets, gold appears to have become a more interesting marker than oil, with which it traditionally rises and falls. Gold has fallen back from the $1000 mark, due to small signs of strength in the Dollar. This strength comes on the back of better than expected results in the recent consumer spending figures. These “good news” stories, would seem to suggest that the current troubles will cause a more gentle slowdown of the economy and not a single crash. It seems that while the large corporations are already feeling the full force of the crunch, the average consumer is not yet being hit by its worst effects. Whether this means its eventual bite will be worse, time will tell.

Popularity: 4% [?]

  By Andrew (Business editor)

These are far from certain times for the American economy. The Dow is on the slide, closing below the psychological 12,000 mark on Friday and fears of recession seem to be well founded. Warren Buffet has already been quoted as saying the U.S. is in recession but the federal government seems to be hoping its economic stimulus package will get it out before it becomes official. It seems recession is here in everything but name despite the best efforts of the federal reserve to ease tensions with interest rate cuts.

Not to make matters worse but while the Dow goes down, OPEC has decided not to increase production at their meeting in Vienna, Austria. This as expected has caused oil prices to increase and they are now sitting comfortably above the $100.00 point. This is not welcome news for American drivers, as gas prices increase nationwide. While the American economy does have a large effect on the rest of the world it seems that the current economic crisis is going to be most acute in the U.S. with the Dollar hitting new lows against the Euro.

The U.S., despite probably having to go through some harder times than they have had recently will most likely be able to stay afloat just because of how valued a customer base they are to foreign salesmen. For example they are still an essential market for OPEC and if consumers can’t buy oil and its derivatives, that will have a serious negative impact on the OPEC countries. The stalemate that exists between them looks like it is stable until China or India is able to make up the capacity, which may still be some years off.

Popularity: 8% [?]