Karl Rove forecast 338 for ObamaNow all the US states bar Missouri have been called, the electoral votes vote tally is 364 to Obama and 173 to McCain. McCain is currently expected to take Missouri which would make Obama’s final tally 364 electoral college votes. (Check the New York Times’ excellent election map).

Using this electoral vote tally we can do a quick analysis of how accurate the various pollsters and prediction markets have been. The 3 Blue Dudes site has been tracking 84 different pollsters, pundits and prediction markets for the past few months. On the day before election day they took a snapshot of the current forecasts. 3 Blue Dudes recorded Hubdub as projecting exactly 364 electoral college votes for Obama!

The markets behind the Hubdub election map all closed prior to the polls closing. As you can see the 11 undecided moved into the McCain camp prior to the close.

How did the pollsters and pundits compare? Not so good. Only 7 of the 81 other pollsters and pundits predicted Obama winning 364 electoral votes.

Some of the major media sites, pollsters and pundits that didn’t do so well were:

New York Times: 291 to Obama (84 undecided)

CNN: 291 to Obama (90 undecided)

Washington Post: 319 to Obama

Zogby: 311 to Obama (51 undecided)

Karl Rove: 338 to Obama

All in all, a great night for Obama and a great night for Hubdub’s forecasts.

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Tags: Barack Obama, Electoral College, hubdub, United States

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